One of the topics of discussion at my office's winter workshop today was winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories (winter WWA, I'll call it). This isn't the first time we've talked about this as a group. I've always been big on products like that, but in the changing landscape of communication and messaging, I'm not so sure where I land now.
It's no secret that not all NWS products are understood correctly. I remember talking to my sister one time about a winter storm that was headed her way. I mentioned that she was under a Winter Storm Warning. She said something to the effect of, "Oh, but it's just a warning, so that's not too bad, right?" (she had always thought an advisory was worse than a warning). Who does she think she is not knowing that! I mean, how hard can it be to remember that??? The better question might be who am I to think that everyone fully comprehends that? In my mind, it seems like a simple concept. But, then again, I'M the one with the Meteorology degree...I'M the one regularly contemplating impacts and criteria. She has no idea what her local office's criteria are. Should she?
I don't think I've ever thought people should know our (the NWS') criteria. Heck, I don't even remember all of our criteria. I have an ops notebook dedicated to that very thing. If I'm being honest, though, there is probably a part of me that has expected people to at least understand the winter WWA difference. It seems like such a simple concept (says the Meteorologist). I don't know where the disconnect is, but something leads many people to repeatedly ask for clarification on the issue. Perhaps there's something important there.
With social media and SOOO many different ways to get information nowadays, there continues to be a push for improved and effective communication. One way to improve communication is to avoid confusion where possible. If the winter watch/warning/advisory distinction is causing confusion, maybe one solution is to avoid the mention of those products where possible. Think about the earlier conversation with my sister. What if I had just started the conversation with, "Hey, looks like ya'll are going to get 6-12" of snow tomorrow." Our conversation would have been shorter and less confusing.
My sister has three kids...all of which are in school. For her, 6-12" likely means no school and that someone needs to be home to watch the little rascals. THAT'S what matters to her. At the core, she probably could care less about whether she is under an advisory or warning...she just wants to know if the kids are staying home.
This is not an argument for, or against, the removal of winter WWA. As I understand the current state of the weather enterprise and how we communicate, there is still a place for those products. It just seems that our forward-facing message for the public, and likely even our partners, should be the potential or expected amounts, impacts, timing, etc. In time, maybe major changes to winter WWA will be more effective and is something the NWS Hazard simplification project is working hard to address going forward.
The challenge will still be how to best manage time spent on winter WWA
decisions vs other aspects of messaging in order to best set people up
for success as they contemplate important decisions with each winter
event. I'm still working through finding that balance. For now, I suppose I have landed on focusing most of my attention/effort on the science of the forecast and how that drives the forward-facing message (social media graphics, SitReps, briefings, etc) while at the same time not completely ignoring the role winter WWA have in the process. What about you? Where do you see winter WWA fitting in with messaging and how it is best utilized going forward?
P.S. My blog was never meant to be a let-me-tell-you-how-it-is kind of deal. I'm hoping any post I make starts conversations, whether I am ever involved in them or not. Writing these posts has helped me think through the challenges we face and I hope it does the same for others.
