Thursday, June 4, 2020

CAPE, SWEAT, and Tears

CAPE or SWEAT for severe weather? What about AFDs? Long, short, more science, less science? VIL of the Day? Social media graphics with lots of text and pictures, or one picture with a few key takeaways? SVR with TOR possible? Frequent posts in NWSChat or 'why do we even log in?'?

I don't get too worked up about CAPE vs SWEAT, but ask me about some other topics, and the emotion meter will probably pick up on an anomaly. What about you? Which topics in Meteorology trigger a deeper emotion? Think about it for a minute...


As you think about what you're passionate about, does just the thought, alone, trigger some emotions? For some, the emotion may be frustration or anger. Maybe you had a bad interaction or discussion, or perhaps you can't understand why someone would think or act a certain way, or why they don't seem to care as much about something you feel they should. I've struggled with all of those. I don't believe emotions aren bad in of themselves, but when they hit the red zone, bells and whistles start going off. It's at this point where I've been challenged to think differently.


I once worked with a forecaster who shared differing views (some vastly different) on a lot of topics, from AFDs to warnings, and products in between. I regularly dealt with the frustration of why someone would think, or act, a certain way. As passionate as I was in favor of certain ideas, he was equally passionate in the opposite camp. Over time, that frustration festered and led to an unhealthy working relationship between us. Our conversations about various topics of disagreement were no longer constructive and just led to frustration, anxiety, and stress. As much as I would like to say the problem was all his, it's simply not true. We were both part of the problem. On my end, I let my emotions get the best of my thoughts and actions...to the point where I dreaded working shifts together.

Let's pause for a minute and take a look at this from a weather point of view. Festering emotions (frustration in my story) is like a field of agitated cumulus clouds. If the forcing (ie. trigger mechanism) continues, those agitated CU can give rise to convection. Think about each stage of development as being the next color up on the "emotion meter".

Initial cumulus development sparked by some action or opinion, but nothing ominous
Maturing cumulus with a little more development due to continued agitation. Watch possible.

Skies are darkening (emotions are deepening). Initiation imminent.
Deepening emotion has given way to convective initiation. Warnings issued

The process from CU to convection varies depending on the environment, but sometimes can be explosive. The end result carries a risk of negative impacts. Not all CU fields give rise to convection, nor do all emotions give rise to problems. However, due to the potential negative impacts, the key is to monitor both - to stay situationally aware - in case increased agitation occurs.



Monitoring our emotions is only part of the task, though, and is probably the easier part. In my story, I was well aware of the increased agitation (frustration) with that forecaster. But what's the benefit to good situational awareness if it isn't followed by any action? This is where the task turns more difficult.

Good situational awareness lets the forecaster know important changes are occurring, and when they need to be addressed. If all the model data forecast the cap to hold, but satellite imagery shows it's breaking, your forecast and messaging will need to change. Not only that, your mindset about the rest of the shift needs to change (staffing, duties, etc). In our business, problems occur when good situational awareness points to a needed change, but no change is made. And that is exactly what happened to me in my earlier story. I knew the frustration was becoming increasingly agitated, but I didn't make the necessary changes.



Why are those changes so important? With thunderstorms, we know the risks. With emotional "storms", potential risks include hurt, or lost, relationships, poor communication, unfair biases, hasty/poor decisions, and so on. It's that first one - hurt, or lost, relationships - that has stuck out to me recently. Many, if not all, of us have at least one area in Meteorology that we feel strongly about, and there's nothing wrong with that. But, like colliding airmasses, problems arise when opposing passions meet. 


In my attempt to keep good relationships with people, I think I've tried to cap the emotion (not bad), instead of addressing the thoughts and actions (potentially bad) that follow. What I'm working hard on remembering is that it IS OK to disagree with people. It IS OK that others disagree with me. And it IS POSSIBLE to have a healthy relationship with those with differing opinions. I so wish I had acted differently with that previous forecaster. I wish I had been more ok with us disagreeing. Maybe we could have even had some constructive conversations with positive outcomes. There's no guarantee our working relationship would have been any better, but I believe it wouldn't have gotten as bad as it did. Beyond just him, I know I've probably burned some bridges with other people over the course of my career (due to not handling differing opinions as well).

Whether it's a weather-related disagreement or not, I am seeing more and more the importance of finding ways to keep relationships healthy. When we lose that, we quickly lose the ability to have constructive conversations and bring about important change.



I always want to be careful with absolute statements. Sometimes an issue has a one-size-fits-all solution, but not always. As it relates to this chat, I believe there are times where the healthy decision is to break off a relationship with a person or group. And, I'm not suggesting that we will all be best buds, either. We can have a healthy relationship with someone, but not be their best friend. My hope is simply that I - that we - will keep good situational awareness with our agitated CU, and find ways to work alongside each other even when we don't agree. If you struggle with keeping healthy relationships in the midst of differing opinions, you're not alone. I'm working on it right alongside you.