Athletics and a Change in the Weather

One of my favorite things to do on my commute to/from work is to listen to podcasts. I have a mix of topics I listen to, but generally focus on leadership or sports. For long-time readers, you know I like to mix the two together when I can to help drive home a point. Today is no different.

Several years ago, NIL and the transfer portal were frequent podcast topics. The discussion was focused on pros and cons and how it would change college athletics forever. Some couldn’t wait for it to start, while others were adamantly opposed. The "Atlanta Journal-Constitution" did a nice piece on the timeline of NIL's inception, and the challenges faced. Those conversations seem like eons ago, don’t they? Look at college athletics now – we’re only two years into the evolution, but now it is commonplace to see your favorite pro, or college, athlete with a cameo in a commercial, and changing teams is no longer unique to the pros. NIL and transfer portal discussions  continue, but now the focus is on managing the changed landscape.

In a similar way, I believe the weather community is in the middle of some larger changes. The writing is on the wall for NIL and transfer portal equivalents (Artificial Intelligence, probabilistic forecasting/messaging, flexible operational and staffing models, remote work). Some changes have already happened, while others are in the planning and discussion phase. I’ve talked before about the challenges of change, but I wanted to add to this in light of what I’ve seen in college athletics recently.

Early on, not all coaches or ADs were sold on the changes. Now some are starting to see the benefits, and are changing their tune, even if reluctantly. Other coaches, like former Alabama coach Nick Saban, are somewhere in the middle. Saban has pointed out that he isn't opposed to NIL, but that the change needs to be navigated carefully. This got me thinking about the importance of knowing when to keep standing against something, when to let it go, and when to find a middle ground. Navigating change is a balancing act, and if not handled well, can lead to unfortunate outcomes.

Early in my career, I spoke out about a lot of things…too many things. I saw what I thought was a problem, and I would pick a battle to fix it. Pausing to think through the balancing act of it all wasn’t a strength of mine. Looking back, I see some battles that were worth fighting, but I wish I would have spent more time thinking inwardly and outwardly first. What I’m learning now is not only how to better choose if a problem is worth fighting for or not, but also how to move forward after each decision.

In his book, “Just Listen”, Mark Goulston points out the need to “think about what you’re thinking” [page 40]. A mentor of mine had some thoughts on how to do this. He challenged me to think about whether the issue will matter in a week… in a month… in a year. He also challenged me to think about whether the outcome matters in the long run, and to consider if speaking out is making a problem worse, or even creating a problem that didn’t previously exist. While I don’t do it perfectly, this is the filter I’m trying to use more for help with identifying if a problem is worth fighting for. I’m also finding out that I can’t always use this filter on my own.

Over the years, I’ve been humbled by the importance of having at least 2 or 3 trusted people to bounce ideas off of, and to vent to. We all need people like this in our lives who can provide a safe space to work through challenges. It’s also important that we are that person to others as appropriate. My current mentors/close friends have a range of experiences and backgrounds, but they know the weather community, they know me, and they know the problems of the day we face as Meteorologists. Selfish plug…if you haven’t developed mentor/mentee relationships with others, I strongly recommend you consider this. A mentor or close friend who understands you and the issues you face can be gold in helping determine if a battle is worth picking or not. And if it is, they can help you work through how to best address it. 

There’s also an important place for group discussions. I’ve said it many times, but I’ve seen some great discussions on #WxTwitter where folks are hashing out ideas (yes, social media can be constructive). There are also office workshops, conferences, and post-event brainstorm sessions where ideas freely flow. Whether it’s one-on-one, or a group of 50, working through challenges doesn’t have to be, and probably shouldn’t be, something that is navigated alone. Part of working with others is that it helps us not get stuck in our own thoughts and ideas. It also helps us think outwardly.

In the spirit of outward thinking, I’ve found it can help to think about how a change could positively, or negatively, impact those I work with and those I serve. We have our problems of the day, but so do the people we serve. If their problems are evolving, it stands to reason that we may also need to evolve to better serve them, right? While it doesn’t make a change easier to swallow, it can help to know that going along with a change, and choosing not to fight it, may actually be what is best for someone else, even if it isn’t what’s best for you. I know this can be a tough one. There’s also the aspect of change that, for example, may be what’s best for your office at large, but may not necessarily be best for you. It’s a give and take, not give only of course, but factoring in what’s best for us and what’s best for others, is a part of the equation.

As we work through change in this way, it also opens up the door for us to help others navigate change. You never know when an idea you share in a group discussion could help someone else see things from a different perspective. Your input could be the very thing they need to get over their own mental hurdle. There’s also something to say about being gracious with those around you who aren’t as excited about a change as you are. When I hear of a change coming that I am excited about, I sometimes forget that not everyone around me will share the same excitement. Liking a change doesn’t excuse us from listening to others vent about why they don’t like a change. It may feel like they are raining on your parade, and sometimes this will be the case, but just pausing and listening to them can be huge in helping others navigate change, and supporting a good culture around you. It also gives you an opportunity to consider if a change you’re excited about is as good as you thought it was. Being excited about a change doesn’t mean the thought process can be skipped. 

Change will always garner a mix of emotions, and if not handled well, can have some unhealthy outcomes. Sometimes we need to embrace a change, other times we need to stand up. The balancing act can be a struggle, but if we pause and think, we can better navigate which direction to go, while also helping others along the way. In this way, we can lower the risk of unhealthy outcomes for us, those around us, and those we serve.

Forecasting, Failure, and Football

The “Third Saturday in October” was a wild one this year, pitting #6 Tennessee vs #3 Alabama. For those who haven’t watched it with the family yet on your favorite streaming service, I’m about to spoil the ending. In what was a crazy back and forth game, the Volunteers took down the Tide, snapping a losing streak that dates back to my college days. #Success

As a Vols fan, why talk about failure, then? Let me explain…

I love analogies about as much as I love football. They resonate with me and help me learn and remember important ideas. They also help me get an idea across to others, hopefully in a more down-to-earth, practical kind of way. As I watched the field fill up with fans in Knoxville, I thought of failure and adversity and how that often precedes successes. I also thought about the importance of how we handle failure.

Failures come in all shapes and sizes. A tornado going unwarned is a big deal. It’s very visible, it can be costly, and really stings for both the person on radar, and the office team as a whole. It’s like a fumble in football. Then you have what I would consider small failures. For example, highs only reaching the 40s when you were forecasting 50s. It still matters, but it’s not as “visible” as a fumble.

For years, the Vols have put together some decent seasons with mixed success, but they could never get over that hump that was Alabama. They came close some years, but momentum has a way of knocking the wind out of you, and Tennessee has often struggled to not make mistakes and to not lose momentum. What struck me with this year’s game was how calm and collective the 2022 Volunteers squad was, even amid some significant adversity and failures. They played a great game, but there were some costly miscues. They squandered an 18-point lead in the first half, then late in the game, they fumbled the ball at their own 4 yard line giving Alabama momentum and an easy scoop-and-score. Vols fans everywhere thought ‘here we go again…’. But Tennessee didn’t go there again.

In the midst of several failures, the Vols never seemed to feel the weight of changing momentum. They picked themselves up and kept playing as hard as ever. One of the most poignant examples of this for me was when their QB (Hendon Hooker) got a rare sack. As he was being rushed, and with the pocket collapsing, he just sat down, almost as if to say, “You got me this time fellas”. He didn’t fight it, he didn’t scramble around trying to fix it, he just sat down. Then, he got right back up and went back to playing as if nothing happened. The late-game scoop-and-score gave the Vols another chance to get discouraged and lose heart, but they didn’t. They got right back on the field and returned the favor with another TD.

The Vols had a mix of big and small failures, but what set them up for success was how they handled the miscues. Like in football, momentum plays a big role in life. One small forecast mistake here and there probably won’t have a big impact on you. But one big mistake, or a series of consistent small mistakes? That can be a game-changer.

In my early NWS years, I came in all passionate about lots of things. I wanted to have an impact, and I thought my way was the best. The problem is, I let passion get ahead of people, and I burned bridges, some of which may never get fixed. That was a fumbled-the-ball moment (or really, several fumbles in a row) for me, and it still stings to this day. Like UT after the fumble return for a scoop-and-score, I’ve had to work hard not to let that mistake define my “game” (ie. my career). I hate that I made those mistakes, but I’m not doing myself or my NWS team any favors by dwelling on it. That mistake has taught me to better balance passion and people, but the only way I’ve been able to improve is to not camp in the past.

Then I think of the times on radar where I missed a storm, or warned on a storm that didn’t go on to be severe. Sometimes we just have to take a sack, then get right back up and keep doing our best. Tennessee’s QB getting sacked was a failure, but it doesn’t mean a lack of success. The real failure would be if Hooker gave up and stopped trying the rest of the game. Same goes with warnings. Where I’ve had to rethink my approach to success and failure is to realize that a missed warning due to laziness is not the same as a missed warning due to mis-reading the environment or a storm. When I mentor others on radar, I try to encourage them to focus on doing their best and to not stress about missed events. Craig Manning reminds us that “When you focus too much on winning, you’ll start worrying about losing.” ("The Fearless Mind"). We don’t want missed events or bad warnings, but we have to be careful not to beat ourselves up in an unhealthy way when we gave it our best shot, but a mistake still happens. 

I see success as trying your best, but also being aware of where you need some additional training or experience. I recently took more of a leadership position within the NWS. I know that I will make mistakes my entire career as a leader, but I’m setting myself up for failure if I worry about those mistakes. What sets me up for success is not fearing mistakes, but addressing them with myself and with others, honestly, as they come up. Mistakes give us an opportunity to improve if we let them.

Easier said than done at times, I know. Those big mistakes that sting can be really tough to come back from. Recently, the #4 Vols lost to an unranked South Carolina team. This loss hurts all the more because this essentially eliminates the Vols from a playoff opportunity. That failure is tough to swallow. While I still hold to the importance of not camping too long on mistakes, I also believe we have to give ourselves time to process them. You can’t pretend a fumble didn’t happen. It happened, you need to process it, then try to move on. Sometimes it takes a shift, a week, or a year, to move on. One way to help process mistakes is to think back on the successes. At minimum, the Vols will have their first 9-win season since 2016. That’s progress. Progress is filled with failures AND successes. We have to remember that.

Sometimes we need to have teammates come alongside us and help us get through a tough mistake. I have seen countless times where a teammate will come over and pat a guy on the helmet or shoulder after a costly mistake. 

Sometimes that player will still be slumped over on the bench for awhile while they process it, and we need to give people room for that, but they need to know others are there. We need teammates like that, and we need to be teammates like that.

I think about my young kids (we have 4!). I can coach them or I can yell at them. I’ve done both. I regret the latter when it happens, because it doesn’t help them, it only makes the mistake worse. If you are in a leadership position, are you coaching or yelling? How we handle personal failure matters, but it also matters how we handle the failures of others.

I’ll end on this. Success is great, but how we handle success matters as much as how we handle failure. We’ll have strings of mistakes followed by strings of successes. Those strings of successes are wonderful! But we have to guard against pride creeping in. A quarterback running around taunting his success, not the team’s success, isn’t healthy for the locker room culture. We can celebrate each other’s success, but in a way that doesn’t put all the attention on us.

Life is going to throw us some scoop-and-scores, sacks, and unanswered points. We are going to make mistakes. Some will be more subtle, while others will be as visible and as costly as a fumble. The lesson we can learn from the Tennessee / Alabama game is that how we respond to, and view, mistakes matters. To be the most effective at whatever we set our minds to, we have to play to do our best, instead of playing not to lose. Acknowledge where you’ve failed, improve where you can, and don’t get too hung up on where you dropped the ball. As we get better at responding to failure, we find freedom, fun, and less fear. And, that, sets us, and our team, up for long-term success.

Transferable Leadership

Lately I’ve been thinking a lot about the transfer of leadership, and how to best do that when moving from one office to another. As I’m finding out, the transfer of leadership isn’t as straight-forward as the transfer of household goods. I don’t say this in a negative way at all, but more matter-of-factly. Matter of factly…can you say that? Hmmm…not sure. Let me get back to you on that. Anyways, what is becoming readily apparent to me in my short time in my new role is that transferable leadership is more important than I realized. I’ve heard some in leadership circles discuss this topic, but for me it hasn’t truly hit home until now.

I recently listened to a podcast by Craig Groeschel where he argued that trying to lead the same way in one season as you did in a previous season is actually setting yourself up for failure. Hearing him say that really got me thinking about my approach to leadership here at my new office, and it helped me to see that I kinda have to wipe the slate clean and start from scratch in some ways. If this sounds like a negative thing, it's not. Let me explain...

The deal is…no two offices are alike. The makeup of the office, the partners and their needs, staffing levels, likes and dislikes…they all differ. I've been incredibly fortunate to be able to transfer from one good office to another, but that doesn't mean my approach to leadership at ICT will 100% transfer to MHX. We see this play out in sports all the time. We all know that a successful coach on one team doesn't guarantee success with another team. Some coaches simply fizzle after a transfer to a new team, even when both teams were good. I don’t think any leader wants to fizzle, so how do we avoid that? This is the question I’ve been mulling over a lot lately.

My experience in transferable leadership is limited, and I'm still learning, but what others have mentioned, and what I’m seeing play out in my own situation, is that the heart (the WHY) behind leadership doesn’t change, but that the HOW does. The tricky thing is that in many transfer situations, an individual is trying to lead while also trying to figure out which of their approaches to leadership transfer, which ones need to be scrapped, and which ones need a little tweaking. That’s where I’m at right now. I think some of it just comes down to trial and error, while also being cautious not to fall into the trap of “Well, this is how I did it at my last office…”. 

Even more foundational to that is something a mentor of mine shared years ago. He told me that people are like banks. You can’t make withdrawals until you’ve first invested. If I could pick a place to start when transferring as a leader, I would start there. As I’ve started in my new role here at MHX, I’ve been challenged to be intentional about investing in the new group of people I am working with. For me that means stopping and taking extra time to just listen. Active listening shows you care…that you want to know about people. It builds trust. And I’m not just talking about kids, pets, and spouses, although that’s a great place to start. But what about the job. What do they like? One of my go-to questions is what type of weather events get them excited. It's a great ice-breaker, but also gives a little insight into their background and what may be driving their goals and aspirations within the field of Meteorology. What I’ve noticed is that oftentimes, as you engage and actively listen on more surface-ish topics, the deeper conversations later follow. Through that process you can really get to know an office – the good things and the challenges, the strengths and potential areas of improvement…what makes the office flow. As you learn those things, you start to see where you fit in with the flow of the office and how to effectively lead within that flow.

By nature, I’m a people person and I enjoy building good work relationships, but I also have this competing tendency to be overly task focused. For me, then, this has required extra effort to prioritize people over tasks (and to not see people as tasks 😊). But, I firmly believe that patience and perseverance will pay off in the end, just like patient investing. That’s why I really like the bank analogy. The only issue I have with that analogy is that it sounds like you are investing with the goal of taking, which is not the goal here. Instead, I would rephrase it a little and say that we should invest with the goal of leading. What I’m realizing (in a positive light) is that the leading will come with time, but for now there will be more listening and learning than leading. Listen first, lead second.

Backpack Leadership

Several years ago, I started to really get into leadership books. All have been very helpful for me in many different areas, but the one I’m reading now (“Developing the Leaders Around You” by John Maxwell) takes a little bit of a different approach compared to many of the others. Instead of a self-help approach, it’s more of an others-help approach. I’ve never heard someone refer to a book as being an others-help, but this one really is. It’s all about helping you (the reader) help others.

Meanwhile, I was listening to a podcast this evening that also hit on helping others. The hosts made a great analogy, likening helping others with lessening the load of a heavy backpack. They mentioned that each of us carry a backpack with some amount of weight in it. Throughout life, we will have opportunities to help shoulder the weight someone is carrying (a struggle at work, a loss in the family, etc.). That act, be it listening, lending a helping hand, covering a shift…it helps the other person, but can, oddly enough, help us. 

Think about it. Covering a shift for a coworker can be tough, but there can be a joy there as well. Maybe the weather is quiet and you offer to take some extra shift duties so that another forecaster can work on a project or upcoming presentation. Or, perhaps covering a shift for someone helps with their home/work-life balance during a busy week with the kids.

What has stuck out to me, lately, is how much of leadership is focused on others. John Maxwell argues that “The growth and development of people is the highest calling of leadership.”. When I first started reading this book, it kind of threw me off a little. I’m a big believer in servant leadership, but Maxwell really takes it to another level. He even goes as far as to say that some of the people we lead and develop will go on to be better at leadership and/or some other skill, than we are. Stings a little bit, doesn’t it? At least it does for me. 

There was an entry-level NWS forecaster I was helping train for a couple of years and it was really neat to see how quickly this individual progressed during that time. It brought a lot of joy to me to help shoulder that extra weight in their backpack (the extra weight that often comes with a new job). Towards the end of that initial training time, I remember a point when I realized this forecaster was basically climbing the mountain on their own. I’m a little embarrassed to admit it, but I recall thinking that this person was going to be more skilled than me at this rate. I started running into a little bit of a self-conscious wall. The focus began shifting away from training a fellow coworker, and instead to an unhealthy focus on myself.

I’m sure that John Maxwell knew this would be an issue for some of his readers, like myself, and I'm so glad he addressed it. He points out that “To be a great developer of people, you must be personally secure, because taking…people to the height of their potential may mean they will pass you by.”. This forecaster was passing me by and I had to be ok with that. Why? Because that's what leadership is about.

What I’m seeing more and more is that leadership is not about being better than others at something, it’s not about being a higher grade, it’s not about getting extra freedoms or having fewer people to answer to. Leadership is about others. It’s about serving others, it’s about providing resources, it’s about giving opportunities…it’s about setting others up for success. For me, it’s giving up radar (which I love doing) and, instead, doing routine duties (not as exciting) so that someone else can have an important learning opportunity. It's about giving up my favorite sit-stand workstation because it's vital to another forecaster's success on a midnight shift. It's about having that tough conversation about a disagreement or problem. It’s about effectively leading a shift in a way that makes the environment as peaceful as possible, even when things are going sideways. “Lead people, manage things” John encourages. Sometimes leadership is about being hopeful and helping keep morale up, a task which can be very difficult!

And no, this doesn't mean you never focus on yourself. John points out that there is an important aspect of leadership that does involve ourselves. Are we learning, are we improving, are we leading effectively? I would add...are you taking time for yourself to just rest and relax at times. Those are important questions to regularly address. What has struck me, though, is that leadership is not about my position, popularity, or level of technical skill. The challenge for me is daily making sure that my actions and motivations stem from a genuine care for others.

Looking around, some of the best leaders I’ve ever worked with are the ones who made leadership about others. Those are the leaders who have had the greatest impact on me, and that is the leader I want to be.