Athletics and a Change in the Weather

One of my favorite things to do on my commute to/from work is to listen to podcasts. I have a mix of topics I listen to, but generally focus on leadership or sports. For long-time readers, you know I like to mix the two together when I can to help drive home a point. Today is no different.

Several years ago, NIL and the transfer portal were frequent podcast topics. The discussion was focused on pros and cons and how it would change college athletics forever. Some couldn’t wait for it to start, while others were adamantly opposed. The "Atlanta Journal-Constitution" did a nice piece on the timeline of NIL's inception, and the challenges faced. Those conversations seem like eons ago, don’t they? Look at college athletics now – we’re only two years into the evolution, but now it is commonplace to see your favorite pro, or college, athlete with a cameo in a commercial, and changing teams is no longer unique to the pros. NIL and transfer portal discussions  continue, but now the focus is on managing the changed landscape.

In a similar way, I believe the weather community is in the middle of some larger changes. The writing is on the wall for NIL and transfer portal equivalents (Artificial Intelligence, probabilistic forecasting/messaging, flexible operational and staffing models, remote work). Some changes have already happened, while others are in the planning and discussion phase. I’ve talked before about the challenges of change, but I wanted to add to this in light of what I’ve seen in college athletics recently.

Early on, not all coaches or ADs were sold on the changes. Now some are starting to see the benefits, and are changing their tune, even if reluctantly. Other coaches, like former Alabama coach Nick Saban, are somewhere in the middle. Saban has pointed out that he isn't opposed to NIL, but that the change needs to be navigated carefully. This got me thinking about the importance of knowing when to keep standing against something, when to let it go, and when to find a middle ground. Navigating change is a balancing act, and if not handled well, can lead to unfortunate outcomes.

Early in my career, I spoke out about a lot of things…too many things. I saw what I thought was a problem, and I would pick a battle to fix it. Pausing to think through the balancing act of it all wasn’t a strength of mine. Looking back, I see some battles that were worth fighting, but I wish I would have spent more time thinking inwardly and outwardly first. What I’m learning now is not only how to better choose if a problem is worth fighting for or not, but also how to move forward after each decision.

In his book, “Just Listen”, Mark Goulston points out the need to “think about what you’re thinking” [page 40]. A mentor of mine had some thoughts on how to do this. He challenged me to think about whether the issue will matter in a week… in a month… in a year. He also challenged me to think about whether the outcome matters in the long run, and to consider if speaking out is making a problem worse, or even creating a problem that didn’t previously exist. While I don’t do it perfectly, this is the filter I’m trying to use more for help with identifying if a problem is worth fighting for. I’m also finding out that I can’t always use this filter on my own.

Over the years, I’ve been humbled by the importance of having at least 2 or 3 trusted people to bounce ideas off of, and to vent to. We all need people like this in our lives who can provide a safe space to work through challenges. It’s also important that we are that person to others as appropriate. My current mentors/close friends have a range of experiences and backgrounds, but they know the weather community, they know me, and they know the problems of the day we face as Meteorologists. Selfish plug…if you haven’t developed mentor/mentee relationships with others, I strongly recommend you consider this. A mentor or close friend who understands you and the issues you face can be gold in helping determine if a battle is worth picking or not. And if it is, they can help you work through how to best address it. 

There’s also an important place for group discussions. I’ve said it many times, but I’ve seen some great discussions on #WxTwitter where folks are hashing out ideas (yes, social media can be constructive). There are also office workshops, conferences, and post-event brainstorm sessions where ideas freely flow. Whether it’s one-on-one, or a group of 50, working through challenges doesn’t have to be, and probably shouldn’t be, something that is navigated alone. Part of working with others is that it helps us not get stuck in our own thoughts and ideas. It also helps us think outwardly.

In the spirit of outward thinking, I’ve found it can help to think about how a change could positively, or negatively, impact those I work with and those I serve. We have our problems of the day, but so do the people we serve. If their problems are evolving, it stands to reason that we may also need to evolve to better serve them, right? While it doesn’t make a change easier to swallow, it can help to know that going along with a change, and choosing not to fight it, may actually be what is best for someone else, even if it isn’t what’s best for you. I know this can be a tough one. There’s also the aspect of change that, for example, may be what’s best for your office at large, but may not necessarily be best for you. It’s a give and take, not give only of course, but factoring in what’s best for us and what’s best for others, is a part of the equation.

As we work through change in this way, it also opens up the door for us to help others navigate change. You never know when an idea you share in a group discussion could help someone else see things from a different perspective. Your input could be the very thing they need to get over their own mental hurdle. There’s also something to say about being gracious with those around you who aren’t as excited about a change as you are. When I hear of a change coming that I am excited about, I sometimes forget that not everyone around me will share the same excitement. Liking a change doesn’t excuse us from listening to others vent about why they don’t like a change. It may feel like they are raining on your parade, and sometimes this will be the case, but just pausing and listening to them can be huge in helping others navigate change, and supporting a good culture around you. It also gives you an opportunity to consider if a change you’re excited about is as good as you thought it was. Being excited about a change doesn’t mean the thought process can be skipped. 

Change will always garner a mix of emotions, and if not handled well, can have some unhealthy outcomes. Sometimes we need to embrace a change, other times we need to stand up. The balancing act can be a struggle, but if we pause and think, we can better navigate which direction to go, while also helping others along the way. In this way, we can lower the risk of unhealthy outcomes for us, those around us, and those we serve.

ICT Reflections

As my time comes to a close here at NWS Wichita (ICT), I wanted to take a few moments to reflect back on the past several years. Maya Angelou said “I have great respect for the past. If you don't know where you've come from, you don't know where you're going.” I couldn’t agree more. In the craziness and excitement that comes with moving, there’s something about taking the time to stop and think about what has happened, where you’ve improved, what still needs work, and how all of that may factor into your future. 

When I heard that I was going to get an opportunity to work at a Plains office, I was amazed. I’ve always seen the Plains as a place where the best of the best work, and I didn’t see myself as being that caliber of a Meteorologist, especially with severe weather. Don’t get me wrong, severe weather is a passion of mine. I just didn’t feel like I had the right skill set yet for Plains’ convection. But, an MIC took a chance on me, and invited me into the wild weather that is the Plains.

As if on cue, I got a welcome to the Plains moment almost immediately. A week after I arrived, Eureka happened. It was one of my first forecast shifts here at ICT and I’m not even sure I had tornado anywhere in my AFD. In the office that day, we went from “Hey, is that a developing cumulus cloud?” to “How fast can we get more people into the office?!?!”. 

12 hours later, on my way home, I seem to recall thinking, ‘what did I get myself into?’. I’m sure each area of the country has a particularly humbling weather phenomenon, or two. On the Plains it’s convection. 

A couple of things the past three years has taught me is to 1) not worry what people think and 2) to be ok with misses and mistakes. Ok in the since that, trying your best and still coming up short doesn’t make you a bad forecaster. It might reveal a weakness or a need for additional training, but it doesn’t equal bad. One of the best things my MIC here told me is that all new positions have a growing in period. Hearing him say that was such a relief! Mistakes are a normal, and healthy, part of growing. What’s great is that growth leads to improvement. I’ve learned that I must be ok with mistakes, that I have to be humble enough to admit them and look for ways to improve, and to be intentional to fight against the fear of failure and what people may think about me when I fail. It basically took my entire time here at ICT to be comfortable with all of that, but I can’t tell you how freeing it is as I look ahead to whatever new, and humbling, challenges await.

Speaking of Plains weather, my goodness how fast things can change, both in the short-term and in the long-term. Eureka was a short-term example. With Plains events like that, you can literally go from 0 to 60 (cumulus cloud to tornado in about 60 minutes). The thing is, if you’re not prepared, operations can go sideways in a hurry. By nature, I’m a perfectionist. Those types of events have helped me to learn how to better prioritize duties (not everything can be given a #1 priority), and to be ok with some things, like the RWS, not getting as much attention. Oh, and it’s taught me to ASK FOR HELP! Man, sometimes in my struggle with perfectionism I have held onto a duty, or duties, too long without asking for help. When things are literally blowing up in the short-term, I’ve got to be ok with asking for help. It has also helped me to work on not letting the fear of what others think factor into decisions. When things are going sideways, you just can't waste time on unhealthy worries. Easier said than done, and I'm still working on that one...

In a longer-term example, it’s amazing to me how fast you can flip between flood and drought on the Plains. 

2019 saw a Kansas state record for annual rainfall. We couldn’t shut off the waterworks that year. At one point during the convective season, every single river forecast point in our CWA was in flood. We were staffing nearly round-the-clock coverage for rivers, alone. 2020 and 2021? Every time we tried to turn on the faucet, it broke. I have never gone that long without seeing measurable rain in my life. You almost stop forecasting rain even when model guidance gives you a 99% PoP. It became the ‘ole, I’ll believe it when I see it routine. The problem on the Plains is, drought or not, the wind never shuts off. Wind + dry = fire. I worked fire weather all the time in Montana, but it’s a different ballgame here. We don’t have huge forests full of timber that climb tall slopes. We just have fires that move horizontally fueled by 50-70 mph winds, making fire weather days feel more like severe weather days. And sometimes, we actually have fire weather and severe weather on the same day.

Oh, and the convection here. The summer is so funny because you wouldn’t believe how many days you come into work with 5000 CAPE, and you wouldn’t believe how low the percentage of those days actually see storms. I mean, how do you look at that much CAPE and not start “seeing” TCU develop on satellite. It’s like looking down a hot road thinking you’re seeing water when, in reality, it’s just a mirage. You know you’re a seasoned forecaster on the Plains when you don’t bat an eye at 5 grand of CAPE. But here’s the thing, every now and then, convection manages to develop in that kind of environment. You will never see an updraft go severe so quick. Those are the days you issue a SVR before rain even hits the ground. The 5000 CAPE days, and convection in general here, have taught me to be ok not knowing, with certainty, the answer to the question, "Will convection form or not?". It’s also taught me the value of telling people what you know when you know it. When I started here at ICT, I tended to lean away from telling people there may be tornadoes, for example, unless I had moderate to high confidence in them occurring. Since then, and with the help of the Watch-Warning Gap Testbed, I’ve learned to be ok not having all the answers, but still being able to give the public and our partners valuable information, even when confidence is low. For me, it’s also been an additional exercise in leaning away from perfectionism in this job.

I have been so fortunate to work with such a solid group of Meteorologists, not just at ICT, but all around this area. I have always been passionate about the science, but I didn’t know what I didn’t know until I came here. I have learned SO MUCH on the science side, and it has made my passion for the science all the more important to me. I have watched how the solid science foundation of our office has served our partners well, and it has been so encouraging.

At the same time, my time here has taught me to better balance people and passions. It’s great to be passionate about things like science and operations, but unregulated passion can be a problem. Albert Einstein once said, “Concern for man…must always form the chief interest of all technical endeavors. Never forget this in the midst of your diagrams and equations.” 

I’ve come to see that improvement as a Meteorologist isn’t independent from improvement as a person. One of the biggest regrets from my time at my first office (TFX), was too many times putting passion before people. It made me overly critical, grumpy, and not the best co-worker. I know I can’t camp in disappointment about past mistakes, but my hope is to let it be a reminder of what not to do. ICT gave me my first opportunity to really work on better balancing the things I am passionate about and concern for others. It’s had a huge impact on how I act as a co-worker. I don’t run around trying to diminish my passion, but I've been learning how to tone it down in certain circumstances so that I don’t unhealthily burn bridges or hurt working relationships.

Remember the 2004 Red Sox? I believe part of the reason they won the World Series is because the team made the game fun. They had fun and they worked well together and they won. Just a bunch of friends playing backyard baseball. That's the culture I've been fortunate to be a part of here. ICT has helped me to love Meteorology again, and to have fun serving.

My time at ICT has also taught me that putting people first sometimes means choosing a hill to die on. A friend of mine challenged me recently to choose those hills wisely, while acknowledging that there are hills worth climbing. The key is knowing which ones. One of the most important things in my career that I’ve learned here is to be courageous to climb a hill or two when necessary, and be intentional about improving in the area of conflict resolution. Choosing not to die on any hill is just as bad as choosing to die on every hill. This is a tough one, and I think there will always be room for improvement, but I’m glad I was challenged in this here.

I am SO THANKFUL that my career brought me through ICT and the Plains. I wouldn’t have it any other way. I am a better husband, friend, co-worker, and Meteorologist because of it. I’ve had the opportunity to work some remarkable and memorable weather events, some of which I may never experience again. I don’t fear Plains convection anymore. In fact, I will miss it. 

I will also miss the people I’ve had the opportunity to work with here. I've moved a lot over the years, but this will definitely be one of the tougher ones. As tough as it is to leave them behind, I can rest knowing the weather community is pretty “small”, and I know it won’t be the last time we get to interact with one another. Looking ahead, it will be neat to get to know another sector of the weather community that I haven’t yet interacted with as much. There will also be humbling challenges and new memories, hills to die on and hills to pass by. In the good days and the sideways days, I feel better prepared for this new season thanks to my coming-to-a-close season here at ICT. 

The Target of Opportunity Trap

A buzz word/phrase in the NWS right now is "targets of opportunity". The idea is to find those areas of the forecast that need the most attention and where value can be added by the forecaster. Any part of the forecast not considered a target of opportunity can probably be left to the models to handle.

That last sentence can be a bit worrisome, though, because it seems to be the "beginning of the end" of the human element of forecasting as we know it. Whether it is or isn't, I don't know. What I do know is that the "end" has not arrived. My concern is that forecasters will let that last sentence be all they hear and start acting like the end has already come.

As Meteorologists, the support we provide to our clients, partners, and/or the public starts with a solid forecast...and a solid forecast starts with a sound, scientific approach. The models are certainly improving on the sound, scientific approach aspect, but they aren't perfect and there are times when the forecaster CAN add value. The key, in my opinion, is learning when to let the models do their thing and when to deviate. I believe finding this balance is in the best interest of those we serve.

While I support the target of opportunity concept, my concern, as mentioned earlier, is that it will have a negative impact on some forecasters. "If models are doing so well, why even bother anymore?" some might say. The problem here is that frame of mind can lead to missed opportunities to add value. Missing those opportunities may lead to a less-than-ideal forecast which could lead to a less-than-ideal service. Being a service industry means keeping the needs of those we serve at the forefront of what we do. Living in fear of losing our jobs to models, or assuming models are always best, can ultimately lead to a degraded service. The opportunity to add value may be lower than it was 5-10 years ago, but it isn't non-existent. Be intentional about finding those opportunities.

I believe keeping sharp on the science is one way to aid in finding those opportunities to add value. This can also help us as forecasters to know how much to deviate from the models and how to best message these impactful, or potentially impactful, periods/events.

One such target of opportunity I have often seen is with convection. Sometimes the models are spot-on, especially with all the recent CAM (Convective Allowing Models) development, but other times they are horribly wrong. When they are wrong, it is important to know why. Knowing why can help guide the forecast into later periods. Being intentional to keep up with the science can help answer the question 'why' and can provide guidance on the forecast. This, in turn, can lead to the best possible forecast and service.

At other times, a target of opportunity may simply be figuring out which model(s) handle certain impactful patterns/events better than others and leaning the forecast that direction. The various blends out there work great in many situations, but at other times, certain members of those blends out-perform the blend, itself. Learn when to deviate from the blends (research and model verification can help with this). 

I won't go into all the different targets of opportunity, but I strongly encourage anyone out there who is struggling with this concept to not let it become a motivation killer. Be intentional about finding that balance between model value and human value. Keep sharp on the science. Keep up with / research model performance/verification. With this approach, I believe we have the opportunity to provide the best service possible to those counting on us.

My VTEC Coding is Changing

Warming temperatures following an active and very snowy winter = flooding. I've put out more Flood Warnings in the past 3 days than I have the past 3 years. RiverPro isn't the most user-friendly product generator, which means a lot of extra QC of the VTEC coding. That got me thinking about the "VTEC coding" of my life and how it is about to be changed.

I recently accepted a position with the NWS office in Wichita, KS, so perhaps this would fall under the continuation (CON) category? It is quite the exciting change for my family and I. Career-wise, my focus in research, projects, etc has often revolved around convection, and what a great opportunity and location for continuing that! But, as exciting as this "CON" is, I would be remiss to not look back at the past 3 years. Just like when continuing a warning...you would be remiss to not look back at what the storm has been doing up to this point.

When I came to Great Falls, I could not believe how fortunate I was to get the opportunity to work for the NWS. I still look back on that time and am so grateful. When I walked through the doors of TFX 3 years ago, I had no idea what was ahead. In a few weeks, I will walk out the doors of Great Falls a changed man.

I know, I know, that sounds so cliche...and I am not a big fan of phrases like that. However, this one could not be more true. See, I came to Great Falls being very particular about many things, both in the field of Meteorology and in my personal life. Wow did I ever get punched in the face in that area! Some things are worth being more picky about, but it's just not healthy to pick every battle. I picked a lot of battles in the beginning and I regret that. But, through some coaching and tough experiences, I came to realize just how picky I was. It blew my mind. I never fully realized I was that way. So much so, I ended up apologizing to my family and close friends, many years after the fact, for how picky I had been. Have I perfected the issue? Nope. But, I am much more aware of it which has helped me to be more intentional about being careful to let some things go. Life is just so much less stressful when you can learn to let certain things go. It's worth the try...

Also, it turns out, I have struggled with communication, fear, and self-confidence issues. Some of those struggles I was more aware of, but didn't necessarily know the best way to address them. Let's just say the past 3 years have been like going back to college. Only this time my major was "Becoming a Better Man, Husband, Dad, and Co-Worker". Some of the courses were pretty intense, but SOOOO worth it. To...um...use another cliche phrase, my life will never be the same after my time here in Great Falls.

Being able to serve people through working with the NWS is a dream come true. Little did I know just how important this dream would be in my life. It has given me the opportunity to read more, to spend more time with my family, to be challenged and to grow as a Meteorologist, to be challenged and grow as a husband/Dad/co-worker, and also to cross paths with people who have had a profound impact on me.

As my family and I head to Kansas, I go there not as a perfected man. Rather, I go there with an improved understanding of my strengths and weaknesses and how to better address the areas where I fall short, while being humbly confident in the areas where I excel. Perhaps there were many different paths to ICT, and hindsight is 20/20, but I wouldn't have had it any other way.

A Perspective on Change

In my nearly 3 year career with the NWS, I have seen a lot of changes, and the writing on the wall says more changes are coming. Some of the changes have been great, in my opinion, and some I am hesitant to get completely on-board with. Others seem to have that 'what could possibly go well with that' factor. Some seem to have the right heart, but not the best implementation. Meanwhile, others are a breath of fresh air after being discussed for months or even years. I recently wrote about Changes in the Field of Meteorology.

But, I'm not here to argue the good, bad, or the ugly of any change. Change is inevitable. What I believe is important is how we respond to change. Some change is worth fighting, some isn't. Think through it, discuss with others, but decide which battles to pick. And, no, you probably shouldn't pick them all. If a change you disagree with doesn't seem worth fighting, then let it go. If it helps, sing "Let it Go" from the movie "Frozen". If it is worth fighting against, do it diplomatically and always with an open mind. Not all change is good. Old doesn't always equal bad anymore than new always equals better. Some proposed changes are actually bad. Everyone agreeing with a change doesn't make it good. Stand up for what you believe is important, but know when to back down.

Most importantly, though, I believe we have to keep a good attitude. Change, if not handled well, can lead to resentment, grumpiness, negativity, or downright anger and frustration. I have dealt with every single one of these and I know it is easier said than done at times. I have watched negativity eat away at people (their passions, creativity, and zeal) and it breaks my heart. My plea to myself and to anyone reading this, for the sake of the Meteorology community, the people we serve, and our general well-being, be wary of falling victim to a negative mindset.

This community is full of very talented, highly-motivated, and super-creative people. But, we are also full of varying ideology and methodology. Change is born from these varying viewpoints and we won't always agree. My hope is that we can work together to find the best solutions to the various challenges we face. But, since we're not perfect, bad ideas will sometimes slip through the cracks in the form of a less-than-ideal change.

As Meteorologists, we have unique opportunities to serve people in ways that others only dream of. If a change is good, embrace it. If it isn't, find ways to deal with it or help make it better. Just don't let it steal your joy and passion. Stay motivated, my friends...