Athletics and a Change in the Weather

One of my favorite things to do on my commute to/from work is to listen to podcasts. I have a mix of topics I listen to, but generally focus on leadership or sports. For long-time readers, you know I like to mix the two together when I can to help drive home a point. Today is no different.

Several years ago, NIL and the transfer portal were frequent podcast topics. The discussion was focused on pros and cons and how it would change college athletics forever. Some couldn’t wait for it to start, while others were adamantly opposed. The "Atlanta Journal-Constitution" did a nice piece on the timeline of NIL's inception, and the challenges faced. Those conversations seem like eons ago, don’t they? Look at college athletics now – we’re only two years into the evolution, but now it is commonplace to see your favorite pro, or college, athlete with a cameo in a commercial, and changing teams is no longer unique to the pros. NIL and transfer portal discussions  continue, but now the focus is on managing the changed landscape.

In a similar way, I believe the weather community is in the middle of some larger changes. The writing is on the wall for NIL and transfer portal equivalents (Artificial Intelligence, probabilistic forecasting/messaging, flexible operational and staffing models, remote work). Some changes have already happened, while others are in the planning and discussion phase. I’ve talked before about the challenges of change, but I wanted to add to this in light of what I’ve seen in college athletics recently.

Early on, not all coaches or ADs were sold on the changes. Now some are starting to see the benefits, and are changing their tune, even if reluctantly. Other coaches, like former Alabama coach Nick Saban, are somewhere in the middle. Saban has pointed out that he isn't opposed to NIL, but that the change needs to be navigated carefully. This got me thinking about the importance of knowing when to keep standing against something, when to let it go, and when to find a middle ground. Navigating change is a balancing act, and if not handled well, can lead to unfortunate outcomes.

Early in my career, I spoke out about a lot of things…too many things. I saw what I thought was a problem, and I would pick a battle to fix it. Pausing to think through the balancing act of it all wasn’t a strength of mine. Looking back, I see some battles that were worth fighting, but I wish I would have spent more time thinking inwardly and outwardly first. What I’m learning now is not only how to better choose if a problem is worth fighting for or not, but also how to move forward after each decision.

In his book, “Just Listen”, Mark Goulston points out the need to “think about what you’re thinking” [page 40]. A mentor of mine had some thoughts on how to do this. He challenged me to think about whether the issue will matter in a week… in a month… in a year. He also challenged me to think about whether the outcome matters in the long run, and to consider if speaking out is making a problem worse, or even creating a problem that didn’t previously exist. While I don’t do it perfectly, this is the filter I’m trying to use more for help with identifying if a problem is worth fighting for. I’m also finding out that I can’t always use this filter on my own.

Over the years, I’ve been humbled by the importance of having at least 2 or 3 trusted people to bounce ideas off of, and to vent to. We all need people like this in our lives who can provide a safe space to work through challenges. It’s also important that we are that person to others as appropriate. My current mentors/close friends have a range of experiences and backgrounds, but they know the weather community, they know me, and they know the problems of the day we face as Meteorologists. Selfish plug…if you haven’t developed mentor/mentee relationships with others, I strongly recommend you consider this. A mentor or close friend who understands you and the issues you face can be gold in helping determine if a battle is worth picking or not. And if it is, they can help you work through how to best address it. 

There’s also an important place for group discussions. I’ve said it many times, but I’ve seen some great discussions on #WxTwitter where folks are hashing out ideas (yes, social media can be constructive). There are also office workshops, conferences, and post-event brainstorm sessions where ideas freely flow. Whether it’s one-on-one, or a group of 50, working through challenges doesn’t have to be, and probably shouldn’t be, something that is navigated alone. Part of working with others is that it helps us not get stuck in our own thoughts and ideas. It also helps us think outwardly.

In the spirit of outward thinking, I’ve found it can help to think about how a change could positively, or negatively, impact those I work with and those I serve. We have our problems of the day, but so do the people we serve. If their problems are evolving, it stands to reason that we may also need to evolve to better serve them, right? While it doesn’t make a change easier to swallow, it can help to know that going along with a change, and choosing not to fight it, may actually be what is best for someone else, even if it isn’t what’s best for you. I know this can be a tough one. There’s also the aspect of change that, for example, may be what’s best for your office at large, but may not necessarily be best for you. It’s a give and take, not give only of course, but factoring in what’s best for us and what’s best for others, is a part of the equation.

As we work through change in this way, it also opens up the door for us to help others navigate change. You never know when an idea you share in a group discussion could help someone else see things from a different perspective. Your input could be the very thing they need to get over their own mental hurdle. There’s also something to say about being gracious with those around you who aren’t as excited about a change as you are. When I hear of a change coming that I am excited about, I sometimes forget that not everyone around me will share the same excitement. Liking a change doesn’t excuse us from listening to others vent about why they don’t like a change. It may feel like they are raining on your parade, and sometimes this will be the case, but just pausing and listening to them can be huge in helping others navigate change, and supporting a good culture around you. It also gives you an opportunity to consider if a change you’re excited about is as good as you thought it was. Being excited about a change doesn’t mean the thought process can be skipped. 

Change will always garner a mix of emotions, and if not handled well, can have some unhealthy outcomes. Sometimes we need to embrace a change, other times we need to stand up. The balancing act can be a struggle, but if we pause and think, we can better navigate which direction to go, while also helping others along the way. In this way, we can lower the risk of unhealthy outcomes for us, those around us, and those we serve.

Trail of Fears

Late in the afternoon on a stormy day in April, I found myself faced with an uncommon fear of the weather. Uncommon for me, that is. Weather has always fascinated me, and rarely does it scare me. But this day was different. The day was April 27^th. The weather was tornadoes. As I sped down a country road outside of Huntsville, Alabama, I was faced with both the fear of the known, and the unknown. What I knew was that a large tornado was bearing down on the town I lived in, the strength of which gave small odds for survival in a home without a basement. So I fled. What I didn't know was whether or not I was safely out of the tornado's path. With my view was blocked by rows of tall, Alabama pine trees, and a shield of very heavy rain, I was hit with this sinking feeling that only made me want to drive faster. In that moment, my mind was flooded with thoughts (Will I survive? Did I make a bad choice trying to flee? Why can't I get out of this heavy rain? If the tornado is behind me, why is debris still falling from the sky?)

Quick check. How’s everybody doing? Is your blood pumping a little? I know mine is. Fear has a way of doing that. It tends to get our blood pumping and heavily influence our decision-making. The question is, which way is it pointing? Fear isn't always a negative emotion. Sometimes it's exactly what we need to help us make a healthy decision. For many, myself included, the challenge is knowing when to follow fear, and when to disengage.

If we rewind my story from April 27th, there was a moment of decision-making where fear began to factor in more strongly. The Tornado Warning had been issued, and I was faced with a decision - do I stay or do I go? I remember looking out the window and seeing debris start to fall from the sky. In that moment, I decided to hop in my car and just go. I didn't know if our house would be hit, but knowing what I knew about the tornadoes that day, I felt it was my best choice. A healthy fear of tornadoes drove me to drive away that day. I had to push through the what-ifs and go with my gut, essentially. Now, I'm not here to argue that the choice I made was the best, but in the moment, I made the choice that I thought was the best in light of the evidence in front of me.

Staring down the "barrel of a tornado" is one thing, but what about those fears of the unknown that aren't quite as clear-cut as debris falling from ominous skies with tornado sirens blaring? What about those times you are faced with a difficult forecast, knowing you are going to have to make some tough messaging decisions that could be perceived by some as a big bust if wrong? Or what about that presentation you've got coming up that is highlighting something new, but could rub some people the wrong way? Maybe you just accepted a promotion, but are wondering if you'll be effective in the new role. This is where fear can take an unhealthy turn. 

In 2018, I was promoted to a General Meteorologist position at the NWS office in Wichita, KS. Early on in my days there, I remember being face to face with a different "barrel" - the fear of failure. Out of the blue, I started wondering if I would be able to forecast severe weather, issue good warnings, etc. Nobody is perfect, but in my 20/20 hindsight view, there was no compelling evidence from my career to that point that I would tank in the new position - no "debris falling from the sky". But in my mind, I assumed the best of the best got to work in a Plains office (regarding severe weather), and I didn't believe I was one of those. I had a real case of what many in the weather community now refer to as the "imposter syndrome". 

It was an unhealthy fear that was based in imaginative thoughts, not compelling evidence. It's one thing to see a tornado bearing down on you and then decide to drive 80 mph in the opposite direction. It's another thing to see clear, blue skies, and then decide to drive 80 mph in some direction because a tornado might form at any minute. See the difference?

But let's be honest. If you've ever faced a big fear (imminent, possible, or imagined), getting past it is much easier said than done. The imposter syndrome I faced in Wichita took me a good 2 years to get over, and to this day, it still tries to creep in once in awhile. It's a tough battle. I can't tell you how many times I wondered, while writing an AFD, briefing the next shift, or collaborating with neighbors / SPC / WPC, if what I was saying or typing was even remotely in the ballpark of being legit. In my mind, I could "hear" the gasps and laughter in people's minds as I explained my reasoning for a forecast or warning decision. I can't tell you whether people were actually gasping or laughing on the other end, but I can say that the fear of those reactions drove me to unhealthy decisions. On numerous occasions I had the right idea in mind for the evolution or magnitude of a severe weather event, but didn't say what I thought out of fear of being wrong or "laughed at". I let a might happen steer me towards a decision based in unhealthy fear. Those decisions not only hurt me, they also hurt others. Not mentioning a tornado threat to an emergency manager, even when the science says it's possible, impacts more than just me.

That's just one example from my career, but there are so many other ways we can let unhealthy fear steer our decisions. Fear of how we are perceived (our image), fear of failure, fear of being misunderstood, fear of letting down a manager or co-worker, fear of backing the GOV up and hitting another person's car, and the list goes on and on. Ok, maybe that last one is just me. The point is, whether you deal with more fear than the average person, or you just deal with the occasional fear once a year, it can be tough to work through. I certainly don't have all the answers, but I've been learning a lot about fear management over the years, and would love to share some ideas that might help you along in your journey. Below are some Key Takeaways from what I've learned so far...

YOU’RE NOT ALONE. If you don’t get anything out of this post, I hope that you at least hear that you are not alone. I intentionally shared some of my fears for this reason alone. I can’t tell you how encouraging it is when I hear someone else share about a fear I also deal with. You’d probably be surprised how many different fears even your most respected friends, colleagues, or mentors deal with. On a side note, as you feel comfortable, sharing a fear with someone else could be just as helpful for them as it is for you. Fears aren’t fun to share, I get it, but just a thought. This could be especially helpful for mentors. I believe the best mentors are the ones who are the most real.

WORKING THROUGH FEARS IS A PROCESS. This is a reality I’ve had to come to terms with. Working through fears usually takes time and practice. One of the worst things you can do is beat yourself up every time you let an unhealthy fear impact a decision. I get so annoyed with myself when I don’t do what I know I should do, and vice-versa. If this is you, give yourself some grace. Working through fears is like riding a bike. You just can’t hop on and expect to be zooming down the street from day 1. Make sure you are giving yourself room to grow. One thing I’ve found to be helpful is journaling. Sometimes I’ll take time to go back and read an entry from the past and see how I’ve progressed over time with a particular fear. I've also found it helpful to talk with a trusted friend, family member, or co-worker. The HOW will vary from person to person, but what’s important is progress. Instead of focusing on never worrying about issuing warnings, for example, look and see if you are worrying less and less about warning decisions.

DON’T ENGAGE. One of the things a good friend of mine challenged me on recently is to not engage in fearful thoughts when they pop in my head. I know…WAY EASIER said than done. But, remember, it’s a process that takes time. I’ve had so many moments where I thought, “don’t engage, don’t engage” …only to then engage the fearful thought. It’s like trying not to comment on a politically charged post on social media. But, the more and more I’ve practiced not engaging in a fearful thought, the better I’ve become. I love the analogy Craig Groeschel gives. He compares fearful thoughts to a trail in the woods. The more a trail is walked on, the easier the path becomes for future hikers. Similarly, he argues, the more we engage in a fearful thought, the more established a “thought trail” will become in our mind, making it easier for the fear to resurface again. As much as possible, the less we can engage in those thoughts, the harder it is for them to resurface in the future. 

Similarly, in Disney’s “Luca”, one of the characters tells another to say “Silenzio Bruno!” to those fearful thoughts. The caveat here is that this isn't for everyone. As Ian Cron and Suzanne Stabile point out in "The Road Back to You", some personality types actually do better when they engage in a fearful thought and talk their way through it. 

BE INTENTIONAL. This one can be challenging, but sometimes I will intentionally put myself in a situation where I typically struggle with a particular fear. For years, public speaking made me super nervous. So how did I work through that fear? I intentionally put myself in situations where I would be required to speak in public. Many times I stuttered, or spoke too softly, or messed up an important point, but over time, it became less and less scary. I still get nervous before speaking in front of people, and that may never go away, but the fear of public speaking doesn't have the hold on me that it used to. Maybe for you it's the fear of forecasting, issuing warnings, or coming up with the code for a new GUI. Choose the intentional moments wisely, but sometimes the best way to break the fear of falling off a bike is to just get on.

Bottom line (not up front), fears are painful, annoying, and mentally exhausting. But, you are not alone, and I believe they are manageable. Understand the reality that you may not completely get over a fear, but also know that fears don't have to be the primary driving factor in decisions. Be patient with yourself, talk them out with others, and develop good thought habits. 

I'll leave you with this. Michel de Montaigne said, "He who fears he shall suffer already suffers what he fears.". It takes a few times through to grasp what he is saying, but the gist of what I believe he is saying is that unhealthy fear drives us to make unhealthy decisions, which in essence causes unnecessary impacts for both us and those around us.

Thanks for reading this far. Reading through a post about fear can be challenging enough, and I know for some it may bring up painful reminders. Heck, just typing it out has brought up some fears. I’m not here to tell you that a 4-step process is all you need for removal of all fears. Some fears go away, other stick around. Whether you are conquering fears or managing them, my hope is that this post will help you move towards a place that's driven less and less by unhealthy fears.

If you have found some helpful ways to manage fears, please share away! We can learn together.

Forecasting, Failure, and Football

The “Third Saturday in October” was a wild one this year, pitting #6 Tennessee vs #3 Alabama. For those who haven’t watched it with the family yet on your favorite streaming service, I’m about to spoil the ending. In what was a crazy back and forth game, the Volunteers took down the Tide, snapping a losing streak that dates back to my college days. #Success

As a Vols fan, why talk about failure, then? Let me explain…

I love analogies about as much as I love football. They resonate with me and help me learn and remember important ideas. They also help me get an idea across to others, hopefully in a more down-to-earth, practical kind of way. As I watched the field fill up with fans in Knoxville, I thought of failure and adversity and how that often precedes successes. I also thought about the importance of how we handle failure.

Failures come in all shapes and sizes. A tornado going unwarned is a big deal. It’s very visible, it can be costly, and really stings for both the person on radar, and the office team as a whole. It’s like a fumble in football. Then you have what I would consider small failures. For example, highs only reaching the 40s when you were forecasting 50s. It still matters, but it’s not as “visible” as a fumble.

For years, the Vols have put together some decent seasons with mixed success, but they could never get over that hump that was Alabama. They came close some years, but momentum has a way of knocking the wind out of you, and Tennessee has often struggled to not make mistakes and to not lose momentum. What struck me with this year’s game was how calm and collective the 2022 Volunteers squad was, even amid some significant adversity and failures. They played a great game, but there were some costly miscues. They squandered an 18-point lead in the first half, then late in the game, they fumbled the ball at their own 4 yard line giving Alabama momentum and an easy scoop-and-score. Vols fans everywhere thought ‘here we go again…’. But Tennessee didn’t go there again.

In the midst of several failures, the Vols never seemed to feel the weight of changing momentum. They picked themselves up and kept playing as hard as ever. One of the most poignant examples of this for me was when their QB (Hendon Hooker) got a rare sack. As he was being rushed, and with the pocket collapsing, he just sat down, almost as if to say, “You got me this time fellas”. He didn’t fight it, he didn’t scramble around trying to fix it, he just sat down. Then, he got right back up and went back to playing as if nothing happened. The late-game scoop-and-score gave the Vols another chance to get discouraged and lose heart, but they didn’t. They got right back on the field and returned the favor with another TD.

The Vols had a mix of big and small failures, but what set them up for success was how they handled the miscues. Like in football, momentum plays a big role in life. One small forecast mistake here and there probably won’t have a big impact on you. But one big mistake, or a series of consistent small mistakes? That can be a game-changer.

In my early NWS years, I came in all passionate about lots of things. I wanted to have an impact, and I thought my way was the best. The problem is, I let passion get ahead of people, and I burned bridges, some of which may never get fixed. That was a fumbled-the-ball moment (or really, several fumbles in a row) for me, and it still stings to this day. Like UT after the fumble return for a scoop-and-score, I’ve had to work hard not to let that mistake define my “game” (ie. my career). I hate that I made those mistakes, but I’m not doing myself or my NWS team any favors by dwelling on it. That mistake has taught me to better balance passion and people, but the only way I’ve been able to improve is to not camp in the past.

Then I think of the times on radar where I missed a storm, or warned on a storm that didn’t go on to be severe. Sometimes we just have to take a sack, then get right back up and keep doing our best. Tennessee’s QB getting sacked was a failure, but it doesn’t mean a lack of success. The real failure would be if Hooker gave up and stopped trying the rest of the game. Same goes with warnings. Where I’ve had to rethink my approach to success and failure is to realize that a missed warning due to laziness is not the same as a missed warning due to mis-reading the environment or a storm. When I mentor others on radar, I try to encourage them to focus on doing their best and to not stress about missed events. Craig Manning reminds us that “When you focus too much on winning, you’ll start worrying about losing.” ("The Fearless Mind"). We don’t want missed events or bad warnings, but we have to be careful not to beat ourselves up in an unhealthy way when we gave it our best shot, but a mistake still happens. 

I see success as trying your best, but also being aware of where you need some additional training or experience. I recently took more of a leadership position within the NWS. I know that I will make mistakes my entire career as a leader, but I’m setting myself up for failure if I worry about those mistakes. What sets me up for success is not fearing mistakes, but addressing them with myself and with others, honestly, as they come up. Mistakes give us an opportunity to improve if we let them.

Easier said than done at times, I know. Those big mistakes that sting can be really tough to come back from. Recently, the #4 Vols lost to an unranked South Carolina team. This loss hurts all the more because this essentially eliminates the Vols from a playoff opportunity. That failure is tough to swallow. While I still hold to the importance of not camping too long on mistakes, I also believe we have to give ourselves time to process them. You can’t pretend a fumble didn’t happen. It happened, you need to process it, then try to move on. Sometimes it takes a shift, a week, or a year, to move on. One way to help process mistakes is to think back on the successes. At minimum, the Vols will have their first 9-win season since 2016. That’s progress. Progress is filled with failures AND successes. We have to remember that.

Sometimes we need to have teammates come alongside us and help us get through a tough mistake. I have seen countless times where a teammate will come over and pat a guy on the helmet or shoulder after a costly mistake. 

Sometimes that player will still be slumped over on the bench for awhile while they process it, and we need to give people room for that, but they need to know others are there. We need teammates like that, and we need to be teammates like that.

I think about my young kids (we have 4!). I can coach them or I can yell at them. I’ve done both. I regret the latter when it happens, because it doesn’t help them, it only makes the mistake worse. If you are in a leadership position, are you coaching or yelling? How we handle personal failure matters, but it also matters how we handle the failures of others.

I’ll end on this. Success is great, but how we handle success matters as much as how we handle failure. We’ll have strings of mistakes followed by strings of successes. Those strings of successes are wonderful! But we have to guard against pride creeping in. A quarterback running around taunting his success, not the team’s success, isn’t healthy for the locker room culture. We can celebrate each other’s success, but in a way that doesn’t put all the attention on us.

Life is going to throw us some scoop-and-scores, sacks, and unanswered points. We are going to make mistakes. Some will be more subtle, while others will be as visible and as costly as a fumble. The lesson we can learn from the Tennessee / Alabama game is that how we respond to, and view, mistakes matters. To be the most effective at whatever we set our minds to, we have to play to do our best, instead of playing not to lose. Acknowledge where you’ve failed, improve where you can, and don’t get too hung up on where you dropped the ball. As we get better at responding to failure, we find freedom, fun, and less fear. And, that, sets us, and our team, up for long-term success.

Unhealthy Humility

One of my favorite things to do is encourage people. I enjoy finding where people excel and cheering them on. But I want it to mean something. I never want to say something just to check off an encouragement quota. “Well, I haven’t encouraged Stan in awhile, I better go find something. Oh look, he opened the front door properly. Let me go cheer him on.” Over the years, it has meant so much to me when someone has given a genuine note of encouragement, especially when it happens to come at a time when I’m questioning my ability, or feeling weak, in a particular area. It’s so important that we all have moments like that, and I enjoy making sure that happens.

The responses I get vary, but there’s a common theme that pops up from time to time that I’ve been thinking about lately. It’s the classic, ‘Even a squirrel can find a nut’ response. There are several variations on this, but at face value it certainly doesn’t come off as prideful. But is it humble? It’s such a common response, and it seems harmless, but I’m not sure it is.

During a convective event I was working one afternoon, I drew a polygon around a storm developing along two colliding boundaries. Since the storm was going up along the boundaries, it didn’t have a clear motion yet. However, having the mean storm motion vector overlaid with radar, I was able to fan the polygon off to the southeast in anticipation that the developing storm would move in the direction of the mean wind, and make the box wider to account for the expectation that the storm would grow in size given the favorable environment.

After I drew the box, the storm moved off the boundaries, rapidly increased, and then moved off to the southeast…right through the box. One of the other forecasters looked over and said, “That was a great box. Did you mean to fan that out that way?”. The answer was yes, but I didn’t say that. I said something more along the lines of ‘It just worked out’, or ‘I got lucky’. It was my version of ‘Even a squirrel can find a nut’. The reality is, I used science and an understanding of how storms typically interact with certain boundaries, and I drew a polygon based on that in order to provide the best service possible. My response, however,  made it sound like I got lucky. See the problem? I don't share this story to toot my own horn. I share it because we've all had situations where we did something well because we are good at it, but played it off as something less than skill.

I try to be careful not to make unfair assumptions, but I would venture to say that many people who respond like I did are worried about coming off as prideful. We've been taught that pride is unhealthy, so the “squirrel” response makes sense. But, I believe we’re missing the heart behind humility. Being humble doesn’t mean we shy away from things we are good at. A phrase I like to use a lot is be humbly confident. We can be confident in an ability without flaunting it. Healthy humility supports the team, unhealthy humility hurts it.

Think about this. If you regularly tell others you just got lucky, how do you think you’ll respond when your boss asks if you believe you are skilled enough to take on a particular task? Or do you think your coworkers will choose you to be the next leader of a particular team if you always give the impression that your success is by chance? It’ll be hard to get a job or new opportunity if all you ever do is tell people you’re good at finding nuts once in awhile.

In his leadership podcast, Craig Groeschel once talked about changing our approach to unhealthy thoughts. He said, "...we must change our thinking and forge a new path in our brain." He went on to say "The leader you become tomorrow will reflect the thoughts you think today."

He's not saying that we can simply declare we're good at something when we're not. But where you do excel, it certainly doesn't help you, or anyone else, to regularly downplay it. Downplaying it may seem humble, but Craig argues that in reality you're just furthering an unhealthy thought process that can have long-term ramifications. It seems to be in line with ‘we are what we eat’. If we regularly tell others that the reason we did something good was because of chance, we may begin to believe that over time. Before you know it, you may find yourself not trying as hard, passing on new opportunities, or missing important windows to help others. What starts as humility becomes an unhealthy thought process that can hurt yourself, the team you’re on, and the people you serve. The fix doesn't even have to be some elaborate answer. It can be a simple "Thanks, I appreciate you saying that.", or "Thanks. I've been trying this new idea. I can tell you more about it if you're interested.".

If your default answer to compliments is squirrels and happenstance, it’s probably going to take some discipline and time to break the bad habit. In the end, I believe you’ll find a healthier balance of humility and confidence that best supports those around you.