CAPE, SWEAT, and Tears

CAPE or SWEAT for severe weather? What about AFDs? Long, short, more science, less science? VIL of the Day? Social media graphics with lots of text and pictures, or one picture with a few key takeaways? SVR with TOR possible? Frequent posts in NWSChat or 'why do we even log in?'?

I don't get too worked up about CAPE vs SWEAT, but ask me about some other topics, and the emotion meter will probably pick up on an anomaly. What about you? Which topics in Meteorology trigger a deeper emotion? Think about it for a minute...

As you think about what you're passionate about, does just the thought, alone, trigger some emotions? For some, the emotion may be frustration or anger. Maybe you had a bad interaction or discussion, or perhaps you can't understand why someone would think or act a certain way, or why they don't seem to care as much about something you feel they should. I've struggled with all of those. I don't believe emotions aren bad in of themselves, but when they hit the red zone, bells and whistles start going off. It's at this point where I've been challenged to think differently.


I once worked with a forecaster who shared differing views (some vastly different) on a lot of topics, from AFDs to warnings, and products in between. I regularly dealt with the frustration of why someone would think, or act, a certain way. As passionate as I was in favor of certain ideas, he was equally passionate in the opposite camp. Over time, that frustration festered and led to an unhealthy working relationship between us. Our conversations about various topics of disagreement were no longer constructive and just led to frustration, anxiety, and stress. As much as I would like to say the problem was all his, it's simply not true. We were both part of the problem. On my end, I let my emotions get the best of my thoughts and actions...to the point where I dreaded working shifts together.

Let's pause for a minute and take a look at this from a weather point of view. Festering emotions (frustration in my story) is like a field of agitated cumulus clouds. If the forcing (ie. trigger mechanism) continues, those agitated CU can give rise to convection. Think about each stage of development as being the next color up on the "emotion meter".

Initial cumulus development sparked by some action or opinion, but nothing ominous

Maturing cumulus with a little more development due to continued agitation. Watch possible.

Skies are darkening (emotions are deepening). Initiation imminent.

Deepening emotion has given way to convective initiation. Warnings issued

The process from CU to convection varies depending on the environment, but sometimes can be explosive. The end result carries a risk of negative impacts. Not all CU fields give rise to convection, nor do all emotions give rise to problems. However, due to the potential negative impacts, the key is to monitor both - to stay situationally aware - in case increased agitation occurs.

Monitoring our emotions is only part of the task, though, and is probably the easier part. In my story, I was well aware of the increased agitation (frustration) with that forecaster. But what's the benefit to good situational awareness if it isn't followed by any action? This is where the task turns more difficult.

Good situational awareness lets the forecaster know important changes are occurring, and when they need to be addressed. If all the model data forecast the cap to hold, but satellite imagery shows it's breaking, your forecast and messaging will need to change. Not only that, your mindset about the rest of the shift needs to change (staffing, duties, etc). In our business, problems occur when good situational awareness points to a needed change, but no change is made. And that is exactly what happened to me in my earlier story. I knew the frustration was becoming increasingly agitated, but I didn't make the necessary changes.

Why are those changes so important? With thunderstorms, we know the risks. With emotional "storms", potential risks include hurt, or lost, relationships, poor communication, unfair biases, hasty/poor decisions, and so on. It's that first one - hurt, or lost, relationships - that has stuck out to me recently. Many, if not all, of us have at least one area in Meteorology that we feel strongly about, and there's nothing wrong with that. But, like colliding airmasses, problems arise when opposing passions meet. 


In my attempt to keep good relationships with people, I think I've tried to cap the emotion (not bad), instead of addressing the thoughts and actions (potentially bad) that follow. What I'm working hard on remembering is that it IS OK to disagree with people. It IS OK that others disagree with me. And it IS POSSIBLE to have a healthy relationship with those with differing opinions. I so wish I had acted differently with that previous forecaster. I wish I had been more ok with us disagreeing. Maybe we could have even had some constructive conversations with positive outcomes. There's no guarantee our working relationship would have been any better, but I believe it wouldn't have gotten as bad as it did. Beyond just him, I know I've probably burned some bridges with other people over the course of my career (due to not handling differing opinions as well).

Whether it's a weather-related disagreement or not, I am seeing more and more the importance of finding ways to keep relationships healthy. When we lose that, we quickly lose the ability to have constructive conversations and bring about important change.

I always want to be careful with absolute statements. Sometimes an issue has a one-size-fits-all solution, but not always. As it relates to this chat, I believe there are times where the healthy decision is to break off a relationship with a person or group. And, I'm not suggesting that we will all be best buds, either. We can have a healthy relationship with someone, but not be their best friend. My hope is simply that I - that we - will keep good situational awareness with our agitated CU, and find ways to work alongside each other even when we don't agree. If you struggle with keeping healthy relationships in the midst of differing opinions, you're not alone. I'm working on it right alongside you.

Value of the Mesoanalyst Position

Modern-day forecasting within the National Weather Service (NWS) continues to change as modeling, technology, and communications evolve. For some this is exciting...for others perhaps not as much. In reality, I would venture to say that for many, the evolution is a mix of both.

Last year, I read a #WxTwitter thread that discussed the Mesoanalyst role (Meso-A, I'll call it). The discussion drifted from the original topic to a discussion about hand analysis. The way the chat became so focused around hand analysis got me to thinking that perhaps there needs to be a change in how the position is viewed (I include myself in this).

Filling the Meso-A role doesn't always have to involve hourly hand analyses or manually calculating CAPE. The thought of either of those probably scares some people away. Perhaps at one time the position was centered around manually analyzing surface and upper air charts...for some it probably still is. Technology continues to advance and while I hope manual analysis is never completely abandoned, the days of whipping out the colored pencils may not be as widespread as it once was. So, let's step away from how tasks are accomplished and instead evaluate the role in consideration of current technology and model capabilities and whether it can still play an important role in the current NWS service model.

A key concept within the NWS right now is IDSS - Impact-Based Decision Support Services. Achieving goals within this framework requires some evolutions of past service models/concepts/methodologies. I believe one such evolution involves the Meso-A concept. To determine if a concept needs to evolve, we should start with why it was put there in the first place. I see the forecaster in the Meso-A position as being tasked with monitoring and effectively communicating the current state of the environment as well as expected near-term changes / trends.

Note that there is no explicit clarification on how this task is accomplished. Instead of focusing on a specific task, or means to accomplish a task, we should focus on the goal of the position to help determine if it fits into the current framework of NWS operations. Just purely based on how I defined it above, I would argue that it does still play an important role. But, let's dig a little deeper.

With advances in modeling and analysis, have we reached a point where the Meso-A tasks can be combined with other roles (communications, warnings, forecasting) as opposed to it being the primary task of one forecaster? This question may actually be more important than the definition of the position.

The Meso-A position isn't the only one to evolve. Think about how the communications role has evolved with the advent of social media. Comms isn't just answering the phones anymore. In fact, comms has evolved so much, it will sometimes be a 2-forecaster job. Does DSS get its own forecaster or is that lumped in with comms? In addition, radar operators now have Dual Pol, SAILS, TWIP research, etc to consider. Offices handle tasks differently, but the reality is that the workload has evolved with evolutions in messaging and technology.

With that in mind, is it possible that the Meso-A position is actually even more important now than ever before? Maybe in the past the forecaster answering the phones could also handle monitoring and communicating environmental changes. Now that person may be tasked with phones, social media, and DSS briefings. Consider, too, how the position can support ALL of the other positions.

A stronger-than-forecast low-level jet quickly developing with a subsequent increased tornado threat, for example, might be missed by other forecasters knee-deep in warnings, social media graphics, or in-situ oral briefings to emergency managers. The Meso-A forecaster noting this change, especially if it was not modeled well, could provide very important information to aid in warning decisions, staffing and/or forecaster responsibilities, and messaging to the public and partners.

Even with advances in modeling, there remains an important human element at times...it's the Target of Opportunity concept within the NWS. Whether the models are handling an event well or not, at minimum it can help to have someone monitor and communicate the current state of the atmosphere as well as important trends. Then, when you do have those events that are not being handled well by the  models, you have someone who can manually adjust on the fly as an important part of the office's life-saving mission.

The NWS strives to protect lives and property and I firmly believe the Meso-A position, if seen and utilized effectively, can be a vital Target of Opportunity within this mission. I have always believed in the role of the Mesoanalyst, but in thinking about it further, I have become even more convinced of its relevance. But, don't take my word for it. For some additional thoughts on the position, check out the findings in these RAMMB and OPG documents.

One final comment...the heart behind this post was not to argue for or against how the role is performed. My hope is to encourage folks to see the value of the role without the distraction of how one goes about accomplishing associated tasks. Effectively monitor and communicate...that's the idea. How that is done will differ from forecaster to forecaster, but I believe it is a vital support function during many severe weather events.

Winter Storms and Flurries

High-impact weather events can either be annoyingly difficult to forecast...or a joy, depending on how you view it. While there is no right or wrong view on that, it can be an absolute nightmare when it is forecast and doesn't occur, or vice-versa. Several years ago, I wrote a post about the "Winter Storm that Never Was". The focus with that post was more about sharing (or not sharing) snowfall total maps from one model output. For this post, I wanted to look a bit more at the forecasting aspect.

7 to 10 days ago, model guidance was hinting at the potential of a significant snowfall for portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Snow lovers rejoice! And, haters...well, it's winter.

One example of what some model guidance was suggesting (this was the GFS forecast from last Sunday)

Fast-forward to present day and what was supposed to be a big snow ended up being scattered flurries, at least for parts of the Plains. Across parts of the Southern Plains, winter impacts were still felt, though (just ask the fine folks in Lubbock).

NOHRSC Modeled Snow Depth for Dec 9, 2018

This wasn't a case of no snow occurring at all, but the actual swath of snow was quite a bit different compared to what many models were showing days in advance. The tough part with this forecast was that the models continued to suggest a higher-impact snow even up to 2-3 days or so in advance for areas that ended up seeing no flakes at all, or more of a wintry mix as opposed to all snow.

NAM Snowfall Forecast 2-3 Days Out

I worked leading up to, and during, this event. Several things stuck out to me and/or came up in conversation within our office and with neighboring offices.

1) Trends are your friend, but know when to lock in. While not completely consistent, there was a noticeable trend further south with successive model runs. The trick here is knowing when to bite on a solution in the middle of a trend. This can be especially difficult when a certain trend continues well into the Watch/Warning/Advisory decision window. This is kind of like figuring out when to fill up on gas while prices are falling. You want to get the best price (forecast), but don't want to run out of gas (miss the forecast). From a messaging standpoint, you want to give people as much lead time as possible while still balancing out the potential crying wolf syndrome. The suggestion here is to be cautious with specific impacts if the models are in the middle of a consistent trend. If you can, try to wait until the guidance "levels off". This may be especially important when models show a drier, less snowy, less severe, etc type of trend for your particular area.

2) Consistency doesn't always equal higher confidence. There were several model runs in which the guidance were well-clustered on QPF / snowfall amounts. Typically, this would equate to higher confidence for the forecaster. The catch is that run-to-run consistency on where the heaviest snow would fall wasn't always there. Consistency in one model cycle is great, but make sure to look at it in context from previous runs.

3) I cannot stress this enough...don't let social media get to you. We can continue to educate folks and message events as best we can, but some things are simply misunderstood. Keep in mind, too, that the dreaded phrase, "They said...", while directed at us, likely includes non-Meteorologists as well. John Q posting a 400-hr snowfall map from some model is probably getting lumped into people's view of the error in the forecast. We didn't post those maps and yet we still get blamed. One suggestion is to take each event and, if you can, try to explain things to folks. I realize it won't always be received well, but don't give up trying. If this doesn't work, know when to just let it go.

4) Be honest with yourself. No matter how hard we try, we are going to bust at times. The models aren't perfect and neither are we. We all know this, but do we truly account for it in an honest post-event reflection? If you, personally, can do something better next time, then work at it. But, realize that even after considering all of the above suggestions on trends, messaging, science, and consistency...you will miss a forecast from time to time. Period. You are not alone...we all will miss forecasts. Richelle Goodrich said it well - “Many times what we perceive as an error or failure is actually a gift. And eventually we find that lessons learned from that discouraging experience prove to be of great worth.”

5) Postmortems! If you and/or your office do this already, great! If not, now is as good a time as any to start. It doesn't have to be a lengthy, detailed process. It could simply be an email pointing out which models did well or what stuck out to you during the event. Start a discussion. Figure out what went well and what didn't. Remember...be honest with yourself and as an office and learn from it. With each event, successful or not, we have an opportunity as individuals and as a team to improve. Make the most of each opportunity.

Forecasting the weather has its challenges, especially when high-impact events are at stake. What I'm learning is to implement change through lessons learned, figure out how to best interpret model guidance in various scenarios, and to be honest with myself. But, don't take my word for it...give it a try for yourself!

Note: if there are things you have learned from forecasting high-impact events, then let me know and add to the discussion!

Confessions of a Prideaholic

Six months ago, I started at my new office here in Wichita. On my first day, my MIC (Manager-in-Charge) was giving me a run-down of the office - a whose who of the staff, mentioning various forecasters who would be good resources for radar, outreach, etc. In that moment, I immediately found myself desiring to have my name added to that list for future run-downs with new staff members.

Okaaay...so what's the big deal, you might ask. After all, what's wrong with shooting for doing your best and getting credit for it? For me, the problem is my motivation. I don't know where it came from or when it started, but somewhere down the line, I developed the Meteorologist's version of a borderline, superiority complex. When I first joined the National Weather Service (NWS) several years ago, I walked into that office acting like I had it all figured out. Turns out I didn't. Almost four years in, and those pesky thoughts of superiority keep trying to creep back in.

In my short time here at NWS Wichita (ICT), I am once again reminded that I don't know everything, that I'm not the best thing since sliced bread. But, here's the thing. Deep down, I've never actually believed that I know EVERYTHING, and yet if you could read my thoughts, you might think otherwise. The cause seems to be rooted in a poor self-assessment.

I have this tendency to analyze / assess people...their strengths and weaknesses, motivations, etc. There is a part of that that's enjoyable, especially when I am able to help others figure out what may be driving a person to do a certain thing - almost like a detective. But, when it comes to self-assessment, my effective analyzing seems to go out the window at times. On one hand, there are things that I actually do well, but struggle to believe it. On the other hand, there are things that I believe I do well that, in reality, I am not as good at.

Both sides create problems. Option "A" leads to an unrealistic lack of confidence which can cause others to believe I am not as good as I actually am at something. Think about the potential for missed opportunities there. Option "B" leads to an unrealistic surplus of confidence, potentially causing folks to trust me with something that is better suited for someone else. This can also cause me to miss out on opportunities, specifically opportunities to improve.

My self-assessment is the worst where my pride is the strongest. I can quickly say I am not the best fire weather forecaster out there because, frankly, I don't get wrapped up in what others think of my fire weather forecasting abilities, or lack thereof, and it isn't high on my passion list. But, ask me about convection, severe weather, or radar and that's a different ballgame. Those three are big on my passions list and maybe pride is the strongest where passion is the greatest. Passion is a great asset, but with great passion comes great responsibility...a challenge to properly assess myself and others. I say 'and others' because pride can cause me to not only give myself a poor assessment, but also others.

I believe it is always important to strive to do our best, whether it is high on our passion list or not. But, equally as important is the call to give ourselves and others a proper assessment. Be humbly confident in what you are good at, but honest enough to know where you could use some improvement. There are areas where you will, in fact, be better than someone else at something, but don't make that your goal. Instead, find ways to encourage others and help them succeed. Similarly, keep an open mind when people better at you in something come to help you succeed. Or, better yet, go ask someone more knowledgeable than you for guidance.

Being humble in this way and keeping our thoughts from going off the prideful deep end can aid in effective collaboration, improved service, and a stronger, more knowledgeable workforce.