Sandbagging the Delta

In the fall of 1992, the stage began to be set for a flood that would eventually devastate farms, towns, and livelihoods along the Mississippi River Valley during the summer months of 1993. As the waters rose throughout the Central U.S., people took action, not just to save their homes, but also the homes of others.

Of all the stories I read of people helping others, one man summed it up nicely. He said, “I was 20-21 at the time and saw what one person could do for many.” (1) As a Meteorologist, I don’t enjoy seeing devastation from weather events, but what never grows old is the way people come together to help others. Time and time again I’ve watched people help each other no matter what their race, religion, or economic status is. The damaging effects of weather are somehow slightly brightened by people putting aside their differences to help a fellow human being out. Listen to some of these accounts from the summer of 1993…

“I spent most of that summer sandbagging, filling sandbags and going to where help was needed.”

“… A friend and I joined about 10 strangers and off we went to sandbag.”

“A call went out to volunteer on the wall in Germania, so I went. This wall was big, had pumps behind it to relieve pressure, and we were defending dozens of homes. … Easily 30-plus people were on the line moving thousands of bags. Anyone could have been on that line, from high school drop-outs to college graduates. The only thing that we had in common is that we all stunk of sweat and smelled the ripe water on the other side of the wall.”

“I spent every evening from 8 p.m. to 2 a.m. sandbagging” (1)

 

Words like “strangers” and “only thing in common…” stand out to me. People were helping each other whether they knew them or not. Humanity helping humanity. It’s a sight to behold and is a thing of beauty.

Tomorrow, August 1^st, is the anniversary of the peak river stage along the Mississippi River near St. Louis, and it got me thinking of how I could help my fellow man and woman in this flood of COVID. My wife and I decided to get vaccinated earlier this year and “sandbag” our home, so to speak. But, I feel like our help doesn’t stop there.

It appears that the Delta variant of COVID is like a renewed rise in flood waters, putting certain communities at risk once again. I had hoped the flood waters were receding for good, but it appears that may not be the case. Just like people coming together during the summer of 1993, I don’t just want to ask what I can do to help my house. I want to find ways to help the community as well. My home may be at lower risk of impact, but this is a community-wide fight.

So with that, my wife and I have decided to start wearing masks in public once again, not in fear and not because it’s required, but in support of our community. We care for our community and want to do our part to help fight against the potential renewed flooding that is COVID and the Delta variant.

At this point, I hear some probably questioning whether COVID is as big of a problem as some make it out to be. I hear you on that, and sometimes I wonder that myself. However, as a Meteorologist, I regularly see people not take certain weather events seriously, sometimes with devastating consequences (this storm won’t be as bad as the last one, tornadoes never strike here, etc). Some even laugh it off (ever heard of hurricane parties?).

Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of knowing in advance exactly what will happen with a weather event or with the Delta variant. And so we each have to make a decision on how to prepare. But, I believe that the decision doesn’t stop with us. We may not all agree on the severity or impact of COVID, we may not all share the same race, religion, or political background, but we do all share one thing…we are all part of humanity. So, maybe the question we should ask ourselves is what can I do for my community? My wife and I have asked that question and made our decision, and will continue to re-evaluate that decision. Will you join us and do the same? I’m not asking others to make the same decision we did, but I would challenge those reading this to ask what is best for your community during this time. Just like during the Flood of ’93, helping your community may be uncomfortable, annoying, and inconvenient. But, in the end, humanity helping humanity is a beautiful thing and has a way of turning enemies into friends. 

My hope is that we, as a human race, will find a way to come together during this time, community helping community, neighbor helping neighbor, thinking not only of ourselves and our personal rights, but of others, too. What an amazing opportunity we have.

References

(1) “Readers Share their Memories of the Flood of 1993”. St Louis Post Dispatch, 11 August 2013. https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metro/readers-share-their-memories-of-the-flood-of-1993/article_9982bbaf-8981-5b4b-adb1-4a6b11653b75.html. Accessed 31 July 2021.

Hurricane COVID

August 23rd, 2005. Yet another tropical system, in an active 2004-2005 period, begins getting better organized over the Bahamas. At 5 pm, the first advisory comes out from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for Tropical Depression 12.

 
That depression would eventually go on to become the devastating, Hurricane Katrina. What some may not know, or remember, is that Katrina wasn't always expected to have as big of an impact along the north-central Gulf Coast. Two days after becoming better organized, model guidance seemed to be honing in on a possible Gulf Coast landfall near, or just west, of the Florida Big Bend area. This would have been well east of the New Orleans/Biloxi/Mobile areas.

I remember one of my Meteorology professors saying at the end of class that week that they would see us all on Monday (I was going to college at the University of South Alabama in Mobile at the time). I never sensed much doubt in the room as it appeared it would make the northward turn shortly after emerging off the west coast of Florida. After class, I went to work at the grocery story I'd been working at since starting college. With the storm forecast to pass well east of Mobile, I expected a mostly normal day, with perhaps some increase in customers with the storm in the vicinity.

Around 4 or 5 that afternoon, something happened. There was a noticeable increase in customers coming into the store. We always had an evening rush as people got off work, but this was different. There were literal streams of people pouring in from the parking lot. It's one of many images etched in my mental photo library from that  hurricane. All of us at the store soon found out why...

Katrina wasn't making that northward turn yet. The delayed turn caused the track to shift further west. The 4 pm CT advisory from the NHC now forecast Katrina to run right into Mobile. That change in the forecast sent residents of Mobile into a whole other level of preparedness. By Sunday morning, August 28, the first visible satellite images of Katrina were absolutely stunning...and worrisome.

Katrina was now a Category 5 hurricane with max sustained winds of 175 mph! The level of preparedness on Friday, August 26th was noticeable, but that level increased even more once people saw the whites of her eye that Sunday morning.

As it relates to COVID-19 (I'll call it COVID for short), I feel like the United States is currently somewhere between the Sunday morning Category 5 image of Katrina and the Monday morning landfall.

There have been preparations and actions taken across the U.S. in recent weeks, but the past few days feel like a whole other level of action. The medical field is outside my expertise, but like Katrina, it seems like something has triggered this recent uptick in response...something equivalent to seeing a category 5 hurricane approaching the coastline.

Human response to weather is something we, as Meteorologists, deal with on a regular basis and it's interesting how similar the response seems to be during non-weather disasters. When COVID started getting more attention, some probably took action right away, while others have waited until seeing the worsening forecast (like Mobile residents seeing Katrina's forecast track shift right over them). And then you still have those that wait to respond until those worrisome "category 5" images appear. For COVID, that might be like seeing a friend or family member get sick (or worse), or watching how bad things have gotten in other countries (like Italy).

In every hurricane I went through while living in Mobile, there was always this anticipatory waiting period. Whatever level of preparation you took, there came a time when preparation mostly ceased, and everyone was left to ride it out and watch it all unfold. I feel like the U.S. is getting into that wait-and-see period. Last-minute preparations are still ongoing, but many seem to be hunkering down for the longer haul.

The "outer bands" of COVID have already reached our shores...now we wait for "landfall". The tough part of waiting is you don't know how it will all turn out. Katrina changed the landscape of the Gulf Coast. What will COVID do? I don't mean that to sound dire or dramatic. It's simply the reality of waiting. It could be as bad as some forecast, or the forecasts could be wrong.

What my family and I have learned from all of the big weather events we've experienced is to take each one seriously, while finding that balance between fear and wisdom. I didn't plan well before Katrina and I paid a price. There probably is a healthy line between preparing and over-preparing, but I'd rather find myself on the over prepared side than the under prepared.

One of the great things I've seen in so many weather events is how people, businesses, and communities put their differences and financial needs aside and come together to help each other. I've already seen that with COVID and it's very encouraging. Once this storm passes, I believe we will look back and see numerous stories of people helping people...that there is still good sprinkled throughout humanity. Weather the storm, then watch for those opportunities as they arise.

There will be hard times in the coming weeks and months, but as a community, we have the choice to come together in preparedness, then come together in recovery. I've seen it work before and after hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods...and I hope to see it after COVID.

The Best Service Starts with Weakness

One of my favorite tasks in the NWS is working radar. I enjoy the challenge of figuring out what storms are, or will be, doing and how to best communicate those threats to people (through warning vs. not warning decisions, what tags to use, and so on). Ironically, though, working radar also happens to be the task that I most often deal with some anxiety about. Typing that last sentence is difficult for me and I keep thinking through ways to word it in a way that sounds the least negative. That wouldn't be very honest of me, so I'll just leave it as is. Oh, the joy of weaknesses and struggles. Can I get an 'amen!'?! No takers? Didn't think so.

As a general rule, I struggle with being open and honest with co-workers regarding my weak areas. I subscribe to the 'honesty is the best policy' idea, but really struggle to put that into practice sometimes. The past year here at the NWS Wichita office (hard to believe it has been a year already!) has challenged me a lot in this area of honesty. What I've come to realize is that my struggle with being honest with others actually starts with the struggle to be honest with myself.

At my first NWS office (Great Falls, MT), I had very little anxiety when working radar. A lot of people in the office didn't want to work radar, which gave me lots of opportunities to gain experience and confidence. You'd think that confidence would follow me here to Kansas, but it didn't quite work out that way. In Montana, I was warning for small towns and cows. But now I am warning for a much larger population. The city of Wichita, alone, has more people than the entire NWS Great Falls' CWA. The magnitude of severe weather is different here as well, especially regarding the higher frequency of tornadoes and the significant threat to life and property that that threat, alone, carries. There are simply more people in my current CWA to be "hit". Radar is radar, though. It's not like dBZ values have a different meaning here. CC still drops with debris, Dual-Pol data still reveals large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rain processes. The only thing that changed was my mindset (stressful vs not stressful) towards working radar.

I didn't want to admit this and for months I kept trying to hide it...from myself. Which, if you think about it, is kind of a silly goal, and yet it is a very real problem. The truth is, I got some great radar experience while in Montana, but still needed more. I didn't want to need more. I wanted to walk into ICT a confident radar operator, being the go-to guy in severe events. I wanted to be trusted at any point in any event. It simply did not work out that way.

A year in, I have gained additional experience and my confidence is coming back. But, it's still not to the level I want to be at in order to provide the best possible service I can. Part of what has helped me is finally coming to terms with my struggle. I admitted it to myself...I still need improvement on radar. It took me long enough to admit that, but now it is time to be honest with others - this blog post is a part of that and has been a year in the making! In a strange way, working on this post has actually helped me feel more confident. Not that I magically have things all figured out, but now when tasked with working radar, I have one less weight on my shoulder - the weight of acting like I have it all together. Whether anyone in my office ever sees this post, the simple act of typing it out, and making it public, is a huge step even in just being honest with myself.

On a side note, I somewhat comically think back to the first time I was tasked with radar here at ICT. Man, I was so nervous that I was struggling even with the less-visible SPS (a far cry from the confident radar guy I was back in Montana). At one point, the Lead Forecaster I was working with nicely remarked, "You know, it's ok to issue an SPS". I appreciate the grace is in his patience. I have come a long way since that day, but it sure was a low point for me.

So, what about you? Are there any weaknesses or struggles that deep down you know are there, but don't want to admit it? Maybe it isn't even a weakness, per-say...maybe you don't like forecasting or public briefings, but are afraid to admit it. Maybe you don't mind being open with others, but fear their response. I totally understand the concern. I'm not saying you go into work today and draft up an all-hands email about every struggle. Maybe for now you simply need to be honest with yourself.

The beauty here is that the admission of weakness is the beginning of wisdom.

Convincing ourselves that a weakness or struggle doesn't exist, or isn't that big of a deal, can cause us to miss important learning opportunities. Consider this as well...what you learn through your weakness now, could play a vital role in you helping someone else through a similar weakness down the road. Just the simple fact that you are not the only one with a certain struggle can be encouraging!

Now, I will say, being honest with others may open the door to less-than-receptive  responses and I don't want to ignore that possibility. Even in great working environments, there are often one or two that may give people a hard time for showing, or sharing, struggles. If one imperfect individual cannot accept someone else's imperfection...well, that is on them. I know this doesn't ease the fear of a negative response, but I do still believe in the importance of being open with others at times. Start with yourself, then consider opening up to at least a few others.

We ALL have weaknesses and struggles. There are no perfect Meteorologists. If we're honest about our weakness and patient with others', we can all work together to provide the best service possible. If you want to set yourself, and others, up for success, then start with honesty.

Value of the Mesoanalyst Position

Modern-day forecasting within the National Weather Service (NWS) continues to change as modeling, technology, and communications evolve. For some this is exciting...for others perhaps not as much. In reality, I would venture to say that for many, the evolution is a mix of both.

Last year, I read a #WxTwitter thread that discussed the Mesoanalyst role (Meso-A, I'll call it). The discussion drifted from the original topic to a discussion about hand analysis. The way the chat became so focused around hand analysis got me to thinking that perhaps there needs to be a change in how the position is viewed (I include myself in this).

Filling the Meso-A role doesn't always have to involve hourly hand analyses or manually calculating CAPE. The thought of either of those probably scares some people away. Perhaps at one time the position was centered around manually analyzing surface and upper air charts...for some it probably still is. Technology continues to advance and while I hope manual analysis is never completely abandoned, the days of whipping out the colored pencils may not be as widespread as it once was. So, let's step away from how tasks are accomplished and instead evaluate the role in consideration of current technology and model capabilities and whether it can still play an important role in the current NWS service model.

A key concept within the NWS right now is IDSS - Impact-Based Decision Support Services. Achieving goals within this framework requires some evolutions of past service models/concepts/methodologies. I believe one such evolution involves the Meso-A concept. To determine if a concept needs to evolve, we should start with why it was put there in the first place. I see the forecaster in the Meso-A position as being tasked with monitoring and effectively communicating the current state of the environment as well as expected near-term changes / trends.

Note that there is no explicit clarification on how this task is accomplished. Instead of focusing on a specific task, or means to accomplish a task, we should focus on the goal of the position to help determine if it fits into the current framework of NWS operations. Just purely based on how I defined it above, I would argue that it does still play an important role. But, let's dig a little deeper.

With advances in modeling and analysis, have we reached a point where the Meso-A tasks can be combined with other roles (communications, warnings, forecasting) as opposed to it being the primary task of one forecaster? This question may actually be more important than the definition of the position.

The Meso-A position isn't the only one to evolve. Think about how the communications role has evolved with the advent of social media. Comms isn't just answering the phones anymore. In fact, comms has evolved so much, it will sometimes be a 2-forecaster job. Does DSS get its own forecaster or is that lumped in with comms? In addition, radar operators now have Dual Pol, SAILS, TWIP research, etc to consider. Offices handle tasks differently, but the reality is that the workload has evolved with evolutions in messaging and technology.

With that in mind, is it possible that the Meso-A position is actually even more important now than ever before? Maybe in the past the forecaster answering the phones could also handle monitoring and communicating environmental changes. Now that person may be tasked with phones, social media, and DSS briefings. Consider, too, how the position can support ALL of the other positions.

A stronger-than-forecast low-level jet quickly developing with a subsequent increased tornado threat, for example, might be missed by other forecasters knee-deep in warnings, social media graphics, or in-situ oral briefings to emergency managers. The Meso-A forecaster noting this change, especially if it was not modeled well, could provide very important information to aid in warning decisions, staffing and/or forecaster responsibilities, and messaging to the public and partners.

Even with advances in modeling, there remains an important human element at times...it's the Target of Opportunity concept within the NWS. Whether the models are handling an event well or not, at minimum it can help to have someone monitor and communicate the current state of the atmosphere as well as important trends. Then, when you do have those events that are not being handled well by the  models, you have someone who can manually adjust on the fly as an important part of the office's life-saving mission.

The NWS strives to protect lives and property and I firmly believe the Meso-A position, if seen and utilized effectively, can be a vital Target of Opportunity within this mission. I have always believed in the role of the Mesoanalyst, but in thinking about it further, I have become even more convinced of its relevance. But, don't take my word for it. For some additional thoughts on the position, check out the findings in these RAMMB and OPG documents.

One final comment...the heart behind this post was not to argue for or against how the role is performed. My hope is to encourage folks to see the value of the role without the distraction of how one goes about accomplishing associated tasks. Effectively monitor and communicate...that's the idea. How that is done will differ from forecaster to forecaster, but I believe it is a vital support function during many severe weather events.