The Making of a Historic Wind and Fire Event

The recent historic wind and fire event that literally blew through the Great Plains was anomalous in every sense of the word. But, not all anomalies are created equal. We see high-impact events all the time, but not all fall into the historic category. With today’s post I wanted to dig into some of the science behind this event and what set it apart from other high-end events.

Let’s first set the stage. A potent shortwave ejected out of the Central Rockies Wednesday morning, December 15, 2021, and very rapidly lifted northeast from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Wednesday night. Negatively-tilted shortwaves often mean business, and this one was no different.

What set this system apart from similarly-tilted shortwaves was the very strong mid-level jet that accompanied it. The observed 12z sounding at ABQ showed a 500mb wind speed of 100kt, while the observed 12z DDC sounding measured a 700mb wind of 65 kt. 

The 21z RAP 500mb analysis (shown earlier) suggested a peak mid-level wind speed of around 120 kt at 500mb as it moved out over Kansas. A mid-level jet that strong this time of year is more unusual.

Let me pause here a minute. Take a close look at that DDC sounding again. 

 On a day like this, with deep mixing expected, you can sometimes use an observed morning sounding to get a rough idea of how strong the winds might be in that area later in the day. In this case, the morning started with a fairly stout inversion across western and central Kansas, but the forecasted combination of daytime heating with cooling aloft (beneath the shortwave) suggested the potential to mix deeply, with the sounding revealing how strong the winds may be within that mixed layer. The DDC sounding, for example, showed 60-80kt in the potential mixed layer, suggesting peak wind potential of 80-90 mph for any area that could mix deep enough. The 21z RAP analysis reveals the areas from western to central Kansas where some of the deepest mixing occurred (shown by the steepest low-level lapse rates).

At the surface, an unusually deep surface low developed, adding a strong pressure gradient component to the wind potential. In Minnesota, the low pressure set arecord. The strong downslope drying east of the Rockies also helped setup a sharp dryline across Nebraska and Kansas.

 

The ECMWF’s Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) really helps put it all together. The EFI is a great forecasting tool to help determine which events may be anomalous. It can also reveal the anomalous events that are not like the others. 

On the map above, you’ll notice the EFI is maxed out (pink shading) over a large area of the Plains. Looking closer, though, you’ll notice a Shift of Tails (SoT) of 2. In my experience, that’s a separating marker between events. For wind, the combination of a high EFI value AND a SoT of 2 puts an area in a higher-end, potentially record-breaking, setup. The end result? A widespread area of verystrong, damaging winds. The wind, alone, was anomalous, but this event didn’t stop there.

When you overlap strong winds with a warm and very dry airmass, bad things tend to happen. This event appeared to be a classic fire outbreak setup, as researched and shown by Lindley,et al.

 

Adding fuel to the fire, literally, was very dry antecedent conditions. From an anomaly standpoint, there was a very large footprint of dry conditions across Kansas, with much of the state running 10-25%, or less, of normal for rainfall (since November 1, 2021). Fire weather aside, this also added to the risk of blowing dust.

 

Higher end fire weather days do occur on the Plains, but another aspect of this event that sets it apart is that it came in December. This December has been an active one for fire weather in Kansas. In fact, since 2006, only one other December was more active (2017). Outside of 2017, no other December in that time period even comes close.

Lastly, I want to highlight the anomalous combination of shear and instability, by December’s standards. The focus for severe weather was over the Upper Midwest, but it all started in the Central Plains. A plume of high PWats surged north through the Central Plains, ahead of the ejecting shortwave, and went well north all the way into, and through, the Great Lakes region. Getting that amount of moisture return that far north in December is a low frequency occurrence, and more unusual in December.

 

A moistening airmass beneath steep lapse rates and cooling temps aloft supported modest destabilization, and a weakening cap, ahead of the advancing dryline/Pacific cold front. This was accompanied by more than adequate shear for organized severe convection.

The shear/instability combo isn’t unusual for this part of the U.S., in general. In December, though? Not so much. An anomalous combination of shear and instability stretched from Kansas to Michigan, setting the stage for a remarkable swath of severe weather, including several tornadoes. And notice, once again, a Shift of Tails of 2 on the EFI plots below.

For perspective, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota have had more Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued this December than any other December on record (dating back to at least 1986, based on IEM data). Since this post was focused on the science and anomalies of the event, though, I’ll leave the product climatology for another day. 

In summary, a truly historic, mid-latitude storm system had a “perfect storm” combination of high-end anomalies from top to bottom, and everywhere in between. Anomalous features regularly come around, but not all at the same time. Every now and then, though, they line up in perfect sync, often with devastating impacts. This post only touches the surface of the science involved in this event, but I hope it provided a little context to just how anomalous and unusual this event was over a huge footprint of the U.S., while also serving as a mini training moment for what to look out for in future higher-end wind and fire events. 

NOTE: Some of the mesoanalysis images shown above were from the NWS Wichita’s event summary. I helped make that summary, and the images I used in this blog are ones I made. I just wanted to clarify that in full disclosure to make sure it is understood that those images were not improperly taken from someone else's work.

Remembering April 27, 2011

Ten years ago, today, I came minutes away from possibly losing my life. This is my story…

The craziness of April 27^th, 2011 started days in advance, for me, as multiple rounds of severe weather and flooding impacted areas from Arkansas to Kentucky. Many nights prior to 4/27, I stayed up watching the severe weather edge closer and closer to north Alabama (where my wife and I were living at the time). Storms generally reached our area in a weakened state, so the bigger impact for me was not getting as much sleep leading up to that Wednesday (April 27).

On Tuesday night (April 26), yet another round of storms developed to our west. This round looked like it had a little more potential to reach our area with at least some severe weather threat, but not until late that night or early Wednesday morning. I decided to at least stay up to see SPC’s initial Day 1 Outlook for 4/27, then my plan was to see what the storms were doing to the west to decide whether to stay up or to try to get some rest. Not surprisingly, north Alabama was put under the rare High Risk of severe weather. 

SPC's Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook for April 27, 2011

 

As best I can remember, this was the first time I was ever in an area that was outlooked in a high risk. Even at that late hour of night, the outlook triggered a little bit of an adrenaline rush as I pondered how the day would play out. As tough as it was to counteract that, I decided to force myself to lie down for a few hours knowing I would need the rest.

My "nap" didn't last long. Around 2:30am (yes, only 1 and a half hours of sleep), our weather radio went off. The first tornado watch of the day was issued as that round of storms, that I previously mentioned was developing to our west, began entering western Alabama. 

 

Since we still had an hour or two before they reached the Huntsville area (where we lived), I thought maybe I could lay back down for at least another 30 minutes or so. Right about that time, tornado warnings went up for a couple of counties to our west. I decided to get up and turn the TV on to watch the wall-to-wall coverage that I knew would start soon on the local TV stations. The line of storms continued to race eastward with a wind and tornado threat. As it approached I-65 (just west of our house), a tornado warning was issued for Madison County (where we lived). Much to my wife's dismay, I ran into our bedroom to wake her up around 5 am and we got in the center of our house. You could hear the wind howling outside, but no sounds of things breaking. The storm passed, we still had power, and things seemed to be ok.

After the storm passed, my wife tried to get a little more sleep before going into work. I was planning the same, but wanted to take one last look at the storms since they would likely hit the Chattanooga area shortly (where a lot of my extended family lives). Unfortunately, the line of storms was producing numerous, brief tornadoes and widespread wind damage. It appeared that the worst of the line was going to go right through the Chattanooga area. Realizing this, I called my family there to give them a heads up. My hope for a little more sleep was put on hold.

One of the hardest aspects of being a Meteorologist is the waiting. We give people a heads up, hope they take action, then patiently wait to hear how they fared. When you’re warning family, it takes the waiting to a whole other level. As I watched that line of storms move through Chattanooga, all I could do was wait, for what seemed like eternity….

About 30 minutes later, I finally got a call from one of my family members. She said the storm was crazy. She had no power and trees were down everywhere, including one that narrowly missed her house. Other houses in her neighborhood were not so lucky. There is a highway that runs a decent distance beyond her house, which normally can't be seen because of all the trees in her neighborhood. You can see it now. Eventually I heard from the rest of my family. Everyone was accounted for and alive!

Back in the Huntsville area, things had quieted down with just some light rain falling. By now, it was about mid-morning or so. My wife had already left for work, but I was staying home since I was off that day. One of the tricky parts of forecasting thunderstorms and severe weather is trying to figure out what, if any, impact one round of storms will have on the next. Sometimes one round can all but end the severe weather threat. Despite widespread storms that morning, this event was only just getting started, and would regularly prove not all events play by the "rules".

Around 9 am, more storms began developing to our west across Mississippi. These storms formed into yet another line and began marching towards Alabama for round two. 

 

As those storms approached our area, an isolated storm developed out ahead of the line (which usually means trouble). This storm had some rotation with it and strengthened some as it approached our house. And, again, tornado sirens started blaring. I began watching out my window to see the storm. As it approached, I began hearing an eerily loud sound that I hadn’t heard with other storms before. It made me nervous because I was wondering if I was hearing the sound of a tornado. I could see the rain shaft approaching and figured it could be a rain-wrapped tornado. Then it hit. Fortunately, that loud sound was NOT a tornado. It was hail…and LOTS of it! The hail was not that big (only about penny sized), but it was the loudest hailstorm I have ever experienced. Hail was raining down hard and fast. The hail was so loud, and there was so much of it, that it could be heard from far away as the storm approached. The storm left the ground covered in a broken layer of white.

That was storm number two at our house. Unfortunately, this was also the first, of many, mistakes I made that day (and one that could have cost me my life). If you’re under a tornado warning and you hear an ominous sound, don’t take your chances. Take shelter!! As interesting as it was to watch that hail storm, I NEVER should have waited that long to take shelter. If it weren’t for the morning storms, that storm might have had a better chance of producing a tornado. Shortly after that storm hit, the 2nd line of storms came through. 

 

More sirens blaring as a tornado warning was issued. From my garage, I watched as the storms approached. The sky to the west was dark and green so I figured it would at least have some hail. As I waited for the storms to arrive, I got a phone call from a cousin of mine who was very afraid of tornadoes. He said he and his family, south of Huntsville, were taking shelter and asked me what was going to happen. You could hear the fear in his voice. I told him to do exactly as his family said. Deep down, though, I knew I couldn't promise him that everything would be ok. That was one of the toughest phone calls I have ever taken. I almost broke down and cried. I fought back tears as I told him it would be ok.

Shortly after that call, the storms hit our area. Strong winds began hitting the house along with hail. The lights began flickering. At that point, I tried to close the garage door (I had it opened so I could watch the storms). But, as Murphy's Law would have it, the power went off before the door shut. I ran over and closed it manually then ran back into the house. The wind continued strong for a bit longer, then quit. With no power, I had to rely on the internet on my phone and the radio in my car. I listened as storm reports began coming in from the area, specifically the Madison and Harvest areas (suburbs of Huntsville). There were reports of trees and power lines down everywhere. Later, NWS surveys determined that some of this damage was from embedded tornadoes. I did a quick check on our house and determined that no damage had been done. But, now I was stuck in my house because my car was stuck in the garage with a door that I assumed I could not open manually. For those wondering, my cousin and his family survived the storm, although I didn't hear about them being safe until much later.

For the next couple of hours I continued to get updates from a friend of mine in the NWS (Matt), my phone, and the radio in my car. I listened as the first of many tornadic supercells began moving into Alabama (the “March of the Supercells” some have called it). 

 

Then I got a call that I will never forget. Matt called and said that there were reports of a 1/2 mile wide tornado on the ground near Phil Campbell, AL (SW of Huntsville). He said, "Roger, if that storm holds together, it will hit northwest Madison County within the hour." Oftentimes, tornadic storms will produce multiple tornadoes, but not necessarily one continuously. April 27^th was different. Conditions were such that any tornado that developed could be large, possibly violent, and long-tracked. Hearing Matt's report got me concerned. I told him my car was stuck in the garage and he said I should figure some way to get it open. The house we lived in was nice, but wasn’t a well-built, brick home, and most likely would not survive a direct hit from a tornado. Although, even well-built brick homes were not surviving tornadoes that day.

I knew I couldn't stay. I went through the house and began getting some important things (legal docs, medical history, etc.) and put them in my car. Around that time, Matt called again and said the tornado was holding together and was headed straight for Harvest (the suburb of Huntsville we lived in). About that time, my weather radio went off as the NWS Huntsville office issued the tornado warning for Madison County ahead of the approaching tornado. Eerily, though, all I heard after the warning tone was static (instead of the normal voice that comes on with the wording of the warning).

I ran to the garage and was finally able to get the door open manually. As I pulled out of the garage, I was struck with a fear I have not experienced before. The lightning was ridiculous and the sky was an eery green…AGAIN! The fear came from what I saw when I looked up. There were pieces of debris (mostly small pieces of wood, paper, and insulation) flying around in the air above me and landing in our yard. I knew the tornado had to be close. What I didn't know was just how close and just how big this tornado was.

 

I honestly thought I was too late. I kept trying, frantically, to call Matt, wanting to know what was going on. Keep in mind, the power never came back on at our house after the morning storms, so I didn't have all of my normal sources for weather information to keep up with what all was transpiring. All I had was the car radio (verbal descriptions don't always fully convey what others can see on TV), my phone, and Matt. Eventually, I even lost the ability to use my phone because the battery died and I had no way to charge it (I had no car charger at the time). 

Before my phone died, I finally got through to Matt and he told me that I may be too late. He said I should drive as fast as possible if I wanted to leave. I was in a bit of freak out mode at this point, but I decided to leave. I pulled out of my driveway and started going about 80 mph down the road headed east. 

 

As I was driving, small pieces of debris continued to fall from the sky and hit my car. This tipped Matt and I off to the fact that maybe I wasn’t out of the tornado’s path. I thought I was driving AWAY from the tornado, but little did I know I was driving towards it! I want to pause here for a little perspective. I don’t know how much time elapsed, but the tornado (an EF-3 at that time) did end up crossing the very road I was driving on. Because of the debris falling from the sky, and based on a little radar interrogation after-the-fact, I’m guessing it was a matter of minutes.

 

What was supposed to be an attempt to get OUT of the tornado’s path, became an attempt to outrun the tornado. I drove as fast as I could. Eventually, I saw an eerily, dark sky behind me and no more debris falling in front of me. I had made it, but I kept driving just to be safe. Then I hit traffic. It was around 5 pm and some people were getting off work early due to the storms. It was chaotic because none of the traffic lights worked due to the widespread wind damage and power outages from earlier in the day. Also, with all the rain from multiple rounds of storms, roads were beginning to flood. I could barely see because of the rain, so I pulled into a gas station south of the storm's path. At this time, I was briefly able to call my wife. I told her to stay at work and to NOT come home (if we even had one still).

Then, a second tornadic storm developed south of the one I had just outrun. This storm was headed straight for the gas station I was at. I quickly left the gas station and tried to get safely south. It was so hard to see…lightning was flashing everywhere and there was a lot of hail coming down. The hail sounded like it was at least golf ball sized. Crazy doesn't even describe the feeling. Once again, I pulled over, this time into a neighborhood. I tried calling Matt again. He said I was stuck and that he didn't know what I should do. The hail started getting worse and I knew this could be the hail core that often precedes a developing tornado. I figured I wouldn't survive in my car so I ran into the nearest house and began banging on the door…no answer. The lightning was getting worse. I was ready to just crouch down and ride it out on this porch. I was honestly afraid for my life (AGAIN). Then, I heard a noise…the door opened! This amazingly nice couple let me in and I spent the next hour with them in their bathroom as storm after storm moved through the area. You could hear the hail hitting the roof. I imagine the hail was a bit bigger than what hit our house earlier. Finally it calmed down.

Then we heard a new sound. A continuous stream of cops, ambulances, and fire trucks were headed north towards Harvest. Reports were coming in of people being trapped. I assumed I didn't have a house anymore. But, I wanted to get home to see. About 2 hours later, around 7pm, I finally got back to my neighborhood after driving through street after street of flooding and damage. Many roads were impassible. Much to my amazement, when I got to our street, I could see our house still standing! The way those storms were tracking, I really wasn’t sure I’d have much to come home to. We were so fortunate compared to other parts of our county and state. When I got home, the last of, I can't even remember how many, storms hit. More strong wind and hail, but no damage to the house. It was now around 8pm and I had not heard from my wife (she usually got off at 5). My goal now was to try to locate her. With all the impassible roads, I knew I couldn't drive around to find her. Cell phones were mostly useless as towers were damaged and the ones working were clogged with so many people trying to make calls. Little did I know, the call I made to her from the gas station around 4pm was the last time I would be able to call her directly that day.

At this point, I had been running on pure adrenaline. Remember, I had only gotten about 2 hours of sleep the night before and I hadn't eaten since breakfast that morning (too many storms and no power). I was exhausted, my head hurt, and I wanted to hear from Jen. Then, I got a text. She said she was at a friend's house! What a relief. Still, I was determined to go be with her. I drove to her friend's house which was only a few miles away. However, that three mile drive took over an hour. I got to her friend's house, only to discover she wasn't there. As it turns out, we had the same idea in mind. I was trying to get to her and she was trying to get to me. When I tried to get back home, the roads had been closed and I couldn’t find a way back to our house. Now I had to find somewhere to spend the night. I was so tired, I knew I would just have to continue my quest to get home in the morning. So, I drove to another friend's house in Huntsville. I finally got word from my Mom that she had spoken with Jen and that she was safe! God was so good to let me know this before going to bed. 

I slept for a long time, then made the trek back home the next morning (April 28). There was devastation everywhere. Whole buildings and houses were severely damaged or simply gone, leaving only slab foundations in some cases. Trees were debarked and de-leaved, making it look like a bunch of toothpicks sticking out of the ground. It was a much different Harvest than I once knew. On my way back home, I passed a car that had been flipped over on the road the day before. Where that car was flipped over was on the same road I had been on the day before while trying to outrun the tornado. It hit me...that car could have been me. To this day, I still wonder what happened to the people in that car. I never found out...

Later that morning, I finally made it home and there was Jen!  We hugged for a while then shared stories from the day before. I ate again for the first time in about 24 hours. It was surreal being back with her and thinking through what we had just experienced. In the days after, we stayed at many people's houses and did a lot of grilling out. Power was out across all of Huntsville. The main transmission lines that carried power into the area had been taken down by the tornado that passed through Harvest. Power finally came back on a week later (the following Wednesday).

Harvest will never be the same...Alabama will never be the same...much of the Southeastern US will never be the same…I will never be the same. I now have an appreciation for severe weather that I never had prior to that event. As a Meteorologist, I thought I was prepared; I wasn't.

If you remember one thing about my story, let it be this. Please don’t take severe weather lightly. Learn from my mistakes. Have a severe weather plan. Have a backup plan for what to do if things like cell phones, garage doors, weather radios, or electricity don’t work. Every event doesn’t have to be as severe or as widespread as April 27^th. All it takes is one tornado to wreck your world. The extra preparation could save your life...

May 3, 2020 MCS Review

May 3, 2020 MCS Review (central/eastern KS)

As a general rule, convection is a tough, and humbling, phenomena to forecast. But, elevated convection? Well, that's a level above (pun intended). I don't always have time to review every event I work, but I try to when possible. The note with any review I do is it's simply a way to think back through an event and see what I can learn. If others have insights, I'm all ears. Let's learn together.

Before going any further, let me tell you what I didn't do well. I forecast quarter size hail and no wind of any significance. Our CWA ended up with 2" hail and 70-80 mph wind gusts. This is why I do reviews of events (in case you were wondering).

Early in the morning, thunderstorms developed over central Kansas and quickly became severe. Those storms eventually congealed, forming the beginning stages of a long-track MCS (as shown by Sean Ash) that produced severe weather well into the TN Valley.

Days in advance, this event carried a lot of uncertainty with it. Zonal flow with embedded shortwaves; questions about moisture depth/quality (especially following a more amplified upper level pattern that sent drier air well into the northern Gulf of Mexico); and less-than-stellar model agreement.

From a forecast standpoint, the part that gave me some pause (for initiation, coverage, and severity in KS) was questions surrounding moisture return and what impact the warm temps at the base of the EML plume would have on capping. 23 hours out, the RAP was forecasting some decent moistening around 850 mb, but even that wasn't enough to fully erode the elevated cap in place (we've had some very steep lapse rates recently, by the way).

23 hr RAP Forecast Sounding near Wichita, KS (valid 08z May 3)

23 hr RAP Forecast Environmental Parameters near Wichita, KS (valid 08z May 3)

MUCINH was around -40 j/kg, so not insurmountable, especially with an embedded wave forecast to move through and convergence along a west-east baroclinic zone, but not a guarantee of development either.

23 hr RAP 700 mb Temperature Forecast (valid 08z May 3)

Jumping ahead in time closer to initiation, the 2 hr RAP forecast sounding for Wichita showed a bit more moistening in and around 850 mb, but potentially more importantly, it also showed slightly cooler 700 mb temps, effectively removing any inhibition.

2 hr RAP Forecast Sounding near Wichita, KS (valid 08z May 3)

2 hr RAP Forecast Environmental Parameters near Wichita, KS (valid 08z May 3)

Weaker inhibition, modest large-scale forcing for ascent from the shortwave, and a mid-level convergence zone, and I'm assuming that is what gave rise to the fairly rapid development in/around the greater Wichita metro. As far as why storms formed where they did, it appears initiation held off until the shortwave/mid-level convergence zone interacted with instability axis oriented SW to NE across southern KS.

2 hr RAP Forecast Instability and 0-6 km shear (valid 08z May 3)

Sometimes it seems like elevated convection is more sensitive to subtle features (moistening, temperatures aloft, etc). Maybe that's the case with all convection, but it certainly seems important in this one. One of the forecasters at my office (WFO ICT) keyed in on one potential subtlety.  When he came on shift, he noticed a more backed flow in the low-levels on the ICT VWP compared to what models were forecasting the night before. That piqued my interest, and was something I didn't even think of looking at. It appears it was an important find.

The 23 hr RAP forecast sounding (valid near initiation time) showed westerly winds around 5 kt at 850 mb, while the 2 hr forecast sounding (valid near initiation time) showed slightly stronger 850 mb winds (15 kt) that were slightly south of due west. In fact, the 2 hr RAP forecast showed slightly better veering in the 850-700 mb layer. The end result was effective SRH of 96 m2/s2 (23 hr forecast) vs 144 m2/s2 (2 hr forecast). Both soundings had similar shear and instability, but that added SRH might have contributed to several of the updrafts being more efficient at acquiring low-mid level rotation.

It appears the increased potential for rotating updrafts aided in some larger hail sizes being realized and might have contributed to downdrafts being able to reach the ground more efficiently than would otherwise have been expected with a more stable SFC/near-SFC layer. That second possibility is pure speculation.

On the topic, though, I was very surprised to get a 76 mph wind gust so early in the event. It pays to look at more than just one forecast sounding prior to an event. Lesson learned! Take a look at the RAP forecast sounding for southeast Kansas (where the strongest wind gusts in our CWA occurred).

4 hr RAP Forecast Sounding over SE KS (valid 10z May 3)

4 hr RAP Forecast Environmental Parameters over SE KS (valid 10z May 3)

Despite southeast KS being post-frontal, it appears the drier low-level air, that was observed further west near Wichita, was not fully realized to the east. So, perhaps the better low-level moisture further east of I-35 allowed storms to be rooted a bit closer to the SFC compared to further west? If so, this might also explain the noticeable increase in SFC wind gust speeds as storms progressed further east.

Thoughts? Observations? Let me know!

Credits

Forecast soundings and analysis maps courtesy College of DuPage.
Storm reports courtesy SPC.

Value of the Mesoanalyst Position

Modern-day forecasting within the National Weather Service (NWS) continues to change as modeling, technology, and communications evolve. For some this is exciting...for others perhaps not as much. In reality, I would venture to say that for many, the evolution is a mix of both.

Last year, I read a #WxTwitter thread that discussed the Mesoanalyst role (Meso-A, I'll call it). The discussion drifted from the original topic to a discussion about hand analysis. The way the chat became so focused around hand analysis got me to thinking that perhaps there needs to be a change in how the position is viewed (I include myself in this).

Filling the Meso-A role doesn't always have to involve hourly hand analyses or manually calculating CAPE. The thought of either of those probably scares some people away. Perhaps at one time the position was centered around manually analyzing surface and upper air charts...for some it probably still is. Technology continues to advance and while I hope manual analysis is never completely abandoned, the days of whipping out the colored pencils may not be as widespread as it once was. So, let's step away from how tasks are accomplished and instead evaluate the role in consideration of current technology and model capabilities and whether it can still play an important role in the current NWS service model.

A key concept within the NWS right now is IDSS - Impact-Based Decision Support Services. Achieving goals within this framework requires some evolutions of past service models/concepts/methodologies. I believe one such evolution involves the Meso-A concept. To determine if a concept needs to evolve, we should start with why it was put there in the first place. I see the forecaster in the Meso-A position as being tasked with monitoring and effectively communicating the current state of the environment as well as expected near-term changes / trends.

Note that there is no explicit clarification on how this task is accomplished. Instead of focusing on a specific task, or means to accomplish a task, we should focus on the goal of the position to help determine if it fits into the current framework of NWS operations. Just purely based on how I defined it above, I would argue that it does still play an important role. But, let's dig a little deeper.

With advances in modeling and analysis, have we reached a point where the Meso-A tasks can be combined with other roles (communications, warnings, forecasting) as opposed to it being the primary task of one forecaster? This question may actually be more important than the definition of the position.

The Meso-A position isn't the only one to evolve. Think about how the communications role has evolved with the advent of social media. Comms isn't just answering the phones anymore. In fact, comms has evolved so much, it will sometimes be a 2-forecaster job. Does DSS get its own forecaster or is that lumped in with comms? In addition, radar operators now have Dual Pol, SAILS, TWIP research, etc to consider. Offices handle tasks differently, but the reality is that the workload has evolved with evolutions in messaging and technology.

With that in mind, is it possible that the Meso-A position is actually even more important now than ever before? Maybe in the past the forecaster answering the phones could also handle monitoring and communicating environmental changes. Now that person may be tasked with phones, social media, and DSS briefings. Consider, too, how the position can support ALL of the other positions.

A stronger-than-forecast low-level jet quickly developing with a subsequent increased tornado threat, for example, might be missed by other forecasters knee-deep in warnings, social media graphics, or in-situ oral briefings to emergency managers. The Meso-A forecaster noting this change, especially if it was not modeled well, could provide very important information to aid in warning decisions, staffing and/or forecaster responsibilities, and messaging to the public and partners.

Even with advances in modeling, there remains an important human element at times...it's the Target of Opportunity concept within the NWS. Whether the models are handling an event well or not, at minimum it can help to have someone monitor and communicate the current state of the atmosphere as well as important trends. Then, when you do have those events that are not being handled well by the  models, you have someone who can manually adjust on the fly as an important part of the office's life-saving mission.

The NWS strives to protect lives and property and I firmly believe the Meso-A position, if seen and utilized effectively, can be a vital Target of Opportunity within this mission. I have always believed in the role of the Mesoanalyst, but in thinking about it further, I have become even more convinced of its relevance. But, don't take my word for it. For some additional thoughts on the position, check out the findings in these RAMMB and OPG documents.

One final comment...the heart behind this post was not to argue for or against how the role is performed. My hope is to encourage folks to see the value of the role without the distraction of how one goes about accomplishing associated tasks. Effectively monitor and communicate...that's the idea. How that is done will differ from forecaster to forecaster, but I believe it is a vital support function during many severe weather events.