Remembering April 27, 2011

Ten years ago, today, I came minutes away from possibly losing my life. This is my story…

The craziness of April 27^th, 2011 started days in advance, for me, as multiple rounds of severe weather and flooding impacted areas from Arkansas to Kentucky. Many nights prior to 4/27, I stayed up watching the severe weather edge closer and closer to north Alabama (where my wife and I were living at the time). Storms generally reached our area in a weakened state, so the bigger impact for me was not getting as much sleep leading up to that Wednesday (April 27).

On Tuesday night (April 26), yet another round of storms developed to our west. This round looked like it had a little more potential to reach our area with at least some severe weather threat, but not until late that night or early Wednesday morning. I decided to at least stay up to see SPC’s initial Day 1 Outlook for 4/27, then my plan was to see what the storms were doing to the west to decide whether to stay up or to try to get some rest. Not surprisingly, north Alabama was put under the rare High Risk of severe weather. 

SPC's Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook for April 27, 2011

 

As best I can remember, this was the first time I was ever in an area that was outlooked in a high risk. Even at that late hour of night, the outlook triggered a little bit of an adrenaline rush as I pondered how the day would play out. As tough as it was to counteract that, I decided to force myself to lie down for a few hours knowing I would need the rest.

My "nap" didn't last long. Around 2:30am (yes, only 1 and a half hours of sleep), our weather radio went off. The first tornado watch of the day was issued as that round of storms, that I previously mentioned was developing to our west, began entering western Alabama. 

 

Since we still had an hour or two before they reached the Huntsville area (where we lived), I thought maybe I could lay back down for at least another 30 minutes or so. Right about that time, tornado warnings went up for a couple of counties to our west. I decided to get up and turn the TV on to watch the wall-to-wall coverage that I knew would start soon on the local TV stations. The line of storms continued to race eastward with a wind and tornado threat. As it approached I-65 (just west of our house), a tornado warning was issued for Madison County (where we lived). Much to my wife's dismay, I ran into our bedroom to wake her up around 5 am and we got in the center of our house. You could hear the wind howling outside, but no sounds of things breaking. The storm passed, we still had power, and things seemed to be ok.

After the storm passed, my wife tried to get a little more sleep before going into work. I was planning the same, but wanted to take one last look at the storms since they would likely hit the Chattanooga area shortly (where a lot of my extended family lives). Unfortunately, the line of storms was producing numerous, brief tornadoes and widespread wind damage. It appeared that the worst of the line was going to go right through the Chattanooga area. Realizing this, I called my family there to give them a heads up. My hope for a little more sleep was put on hold.

One of the hardest aspects of being a Meteorologist is the waiting. We give people a heads up, hope they take action, then patiently wait to hear how they fared. When you’re warning family, it takes the waiting to a whole other level. As I watched that line of storms move through Chattanooga, all I could do was wait, for what seemed like eternity….

About 30 minutes later, I finally got a call from one of my family members. She said the storm was crazy. She had no power and trees were down everywhere, including one that narrowly missed her house. Other houses in her neighborhood were not so lucky. There is a highway that runs a decent distance beyond her house, which normally can't be seen because of all the trees in her neighborhood. You can see it now. Eventually I heard from the rest of my family. Everyone was accounted for and alive!

Back in the Huntsville area, things had quieted down with just some light rain falling. By now, it was about mid-morning or so. My wife had already left for work, but I was staying home since I was off that day. One of the tricky parts of forecasting thunderstorms and severe weather is trying to figure out what, if any, impact one round of storms will have on the next. Sometimes one round can all but end the severe weather threat. Despite widespread storms that morning, this event was only just getting started, and would regularly prove not all events play by the "rules".

Around 9 am, more storms began developing to our west across Mississippi. These storms formed into yet another line and began marching towards Alabama for round two. 

 

As those storms approached our area, an isolated storm developed out ahead of the line (which usually means trouble). This storm had some rotation with it and strengthened some as it approached our house. And, again, tornado sirens started blaring. I began watching out my window to see the storm. As it approached, I began hearing an eerily loud sound that I hadn’t heard with other storms before. It made me nervous because I was wondering if I was hearing the sound of a tornado. I could see the rain shaft approaching and figured it could be a rain-wrapped tornado. Then it hit. Fortunately, that loud sound was NOT a tornado. It was hail…and LOTS of it! The hail was not that big (only about penny sized), but it was the loudest hailstorm I have ever experienced. Hail was raining down hard and fast. The hail was so loud, and there was so much of it, that it could be heard from far away as the storm approached. The storm left the ground covered in a broken layer of white.

That was storm number two at our house. Unfortunately, this was also the first, of many, mistakes I made that day (and one that could have cost me my life). If you’re under a tornado warning and you hear an ominous sound, don’t take your chances. Take shelter!! As interesting as it was to watch that hail storm, I NEVER should have waited that long to take shelter. If it weren’t for the morning storms, that storm might have had a better chance of producing a tornado. Shortly after that storm hit, the 2nd line of storms came through. 

 

More sirens blaring as a tornado warning was issued. From my garage, I watched as the storms approached. The sky to the west was dark and green so I figured it would at least have some hail. As I waited for the storms to arrive, I got a phone call from a cousin of mine who was very afraid of tornadoes. He said he and his family, south of Huntsville, were taking shelter and asked me what was going to happen. You could hear the fear in his voice. I told him to do exactly as his family said. Deep down, though, I knew I couldn't promise him that everything would be ok. That was one of the toughest phone calls I have ever taken. I almost broke down and cried. I fought back tears as I told him it would be ok.

Shortly after that call, the storms hit our area. Strong winds began hitting the house along with hail. The lights began flickering. At that point, I tried to close the garage door (I had it opened so I could watch the storms). But, as Murphy's Law would have it, the power went off before the door shut. I ran over and closed it manually then ran back into the house. The wind continued strong for a bit longer, then quit. With no power, I had to rely on the internet on my phone and the radio in my car. I listened as storm reports began coming in from the area, specifically the Madison and Harvest areas (suburbs of Huntsville). There were reports of trees and power lines down everywhere. Later, NWS surveys determined that some of this damage was from embedded tornadoes. I did a quick check on our house and determined that no damage had been done. But, now I was stuck in my house because my car was stuck in the garage with a door that I assumed I could not open manually. For those wondering, my cousin and his family survived the storm, although I didn't hear about them being safe until much later.

For the next couple of hours I continued to get updates from a friend of mine in the NWS (Matt), my phone, and the radio in my car. I listened as the first of many tornadic supercells began moving into Alabama (the “March of the Supercells” some have called it). 

 

Then I got a call that I will never forget. Matt called and said that there were reports of a 1/2 mile wide tornado on the ground near Phil Campbell, AL (SW of Huntsville). He said, "Roger, if that storm holds together, it will hit northwest Madison County within the hour." Oftentimes, tornadic storms will produce multiple tornadoes, but not necessarily one continuously. April 27^th was different. Conditions were such that any tornado that developed could be large, possibly violent, and long-tracked. Hearing Matt's report got me concerned. I told him my car was stuck in the garage and he said I should figure some way to get it open. The house we lived in was nice, but wasn’t a well-built, brick home, and most likely would not survive a direct hit from a tornado. Although, even well-built brick homes were not surviving tornadoes that day.

I knew I couldn't stay. I went through the house and began getting some important things (legal docs, medical history, etc.) and put them in my car. Around that time, Matt called again and said the tornado was holding together and was headed straight for Harvest (the suburb of Huntsville we lived in). About that time, my weather radio went off as the NWS Huntsville office issued the tornado warning for Madison County ahead of the approaching tornado. Eerily, though, all I heard after the warning tone was static (instead of the normal voice that comes on with the wording of the warning).

I ran to the garage and was finally able to get the door open manually. As I pulled out of the garage, I was struck with a fear I have not experienced before. The lightning was ridiculous and the sky was an eery green…AGAIN! The fear came from what I saw when I looked up. There were pieces of debris (mostly small pieces of wood, paper, and insulation) flying around in the air above me and landing in our yard. I knew the tornado had to be close. What I didn't know was just how close and just how big this tornado was.

 

I honestly thought I was too late. I kept trying, frantically, to call Matt, wanting to know what was going on. Keep in mind, the power never came back on at our house after the morning storms, so I didn't have all of my normal sources for weather information to keep up with what all was transpiring. All I had was the car radio (verbal descriptions don't always fully convey what others can see on TV), my phone, and Matt. Eventually, I even lost the ability to use my phone because the battery died and I had no way to charge it (I had no car charger at the time). 

Before my phone died, I finally got through to Matt and he told me that I may be too late. He said I should drive as fast as possible if I wanted to leave. I was in a bit of freak out mode at this point, but I decided to leave. I pulled out of my driveway and started going about 80 mph down the road headed east. 

 

As I was driving, small pieces of debris continued to fall from the sky and hit my car. This tipped Matt and I off to the fact that maybe I wasn’t out of the tornado’s path. I thought I was driving AWAY from the tornado, but little did I know I was driving towards it! I want to pause here for a little perspective. I don’t know how much time elapsed, but the tornado (an EF-3 at that time) did end up crossing the very road I was driving on. Because of the debris falling from the sky, and based on a little radar interrogation after-the-fact, I’m guessing it was a matter of minutes.

 

What was supposed to be an attempt to get OUT of the tornado’s path, became an attempt to outrun the tornado. I drove as fast as I could. Eventually, I saw an eerily, dark sky behind me and no more debris falling in front of me. I had made it, but I kept driving just to be safe. Then I hit traffic. It was around 5 pm and some people were getting off work early due to the storms. It was chaotic because none of the traffic lights worked due to the widespread wind damage and power outages from earlier in the day. Also, with all the rain from multiple rounds of storms, roads were beginning to flood. I could barely see because of the rain, so I pulled into a gas station south of the storm's path. At this time, I was briefly able to call my wife. I told her to stay at work and to NOT come home (if we even had one still).

Then, a second tornadic storm developed south of the one I had just outrun. This storm was headed straight for the gas station I was at. I quickly left the gas station and tried to get safely south. It was so hard to see…lightning was flashing everywhere and there was a lot of hail coming down. The hail sounded like it was at least golf ball sized. Crazy doesn't even describe the feeling. Once again, I pulled over, this time into a neighborhood. I tried calling Matt again. He said I was stuck and that he didn't know what I should do. The hail started getting worse and I knew this could be the hail core that often precedes a developing tornado. I figured I wouldn't survive in my car so I ran into the nearest house and began banging on the door…no answer. The lightning was getting worse. I was ready to just crouch down and ride it out on this porch. I was honestly afraid for my life (AGAIN). Then, I heard a noise…the door opened! This amazingly nice couple let me in and I spent the next hour with them in their bathroom as storm after storm moved through the area. You could hear the hail hitting the roof. I imagine the hail was a bit bigger than what hit our house earlier. Finally it calmed down.

Then we heard a new sound. A continuous stream of cops, ambulances, and fire trucks were headed north towards Harvest. Reports were coming in of people being trapped. I assumed I didn't have a house anymore. But, I wanted to get home to see. About 2 hours later, around 7pm, I finally got back to my neighborhood after driving through street after street of flooding and damage. Many roads were impassible. Much to my amazement, when I got to our street, I could see our house still standing! The way those storms were tracking, I really wasn’t sure I’d have much to come home to. We were so fortunate compared to other parts of our county and state. When I got home, the last of, I can't even remember how many, storms hit. More strong wind and hail, but no damage to the house. It was now around 8pm and I had not heard from my wife (she usually got off at 5). My goal now was to try to locate her. With all the impassible roads, I knew I couldn't drive around to find her. Cell phones were mostly useless as towers were damaged and the ones working were clogged with so many people trying to make calls. Little did I know, the call I made to her from the gas station around 4pm was the last time I would be able to call her directly that day.

At this point, I had been running on pure adrenaline. Remember, I had only gotten about 2 hours of sleep the night before and I hadn't eaten since breakfast that morning (too many storms and no power). I was exhausted, my head hurt, and I wanted to hear from Jen. Then, I got a text. She said she was at a friend's house! What a relief. Still, I was determined to go be with her. I drove to her friend's house which was only a few miles away. However, that three mile drive took over an hour. I got to her friend's house, only to discover she wasn't there. As it turns out, we had the same idea in mind. I was trying to get to her and she was trying to get to me. When I tried to get back home, the roads had been closed and I couldn’t find a way back to our house. Now I had to find somewhere to spend the night. I was so tired, I knew I would just have to continue my quest to get home in the morning. So, I drove to another friend's house in Huntsville. I finally got word from my Mom that she had spoken with Jen and that she was safe! God was so good to let me know this before going to bed. 

I slept for a long time, then made the trek back home the next morning (April 28). There was devastation everywhere. Whole buildings and houses were severely damaged or simply gone, leaving only slab foundations in some cases. Trees were debarked and de-leaved, making it look like a bunch of toothpicks sticking out of the ground. It was a much different Harvest than I once knew. On my way back home, I passed a car that had been flipped over on the road the day before. Where that car was flipped over was on the same road I had been on the day before while trying to outrun the tornado. It hit me...that car could have been me. To this day, I still wonder what happened to the people in that car. I never found out...

Later that morning, I finally made it home and there was Jen!  We hugged for a while then shared stories from the day before. I ate again for the first time in about 24 hours. It was surreal being back with her and thinking through what we had just experienced. In the days after, we stayed at many people's houses and did a lot of grilling out. Power was out across all of Huntsville. The main transmission lines that carried power into the area had been taken down by the tornado that passed through Harvest. Power finally came back on a week later (the following Wednesday).

Harvest will never be the same...Alabama will never be the same...much of the Southeastern US will never be the same…I will never be the same. I now have an appreciation for severe weather that I never had prior to that event. As a Meteorologist, I thought I was prepared; I wasn't.

If you remember one thing about my story, let it be this. Please don’t take severe weather lightly. Learn from my mistakes. Have a severe weather plan. Have a backup plan for what to do if things like cell phones, garage doors, weather radios, or electricity don’t work. Every event doesn’t have to be as severe or as widespread as April 27^th. All it takes is one tornado to wreck your world. The extra preparation could save your life...

Can God Stop Florence?

Significant weather events always get me thinking...so much so, I had to find somewhere to put all these thoughts (the good, bad, and the ugly) - hence the creation of this blog. Tonight's "Masterpiece Theater" is Florence. Hurricane Florence is not only forecast to clash with the Carolinas, but also the Bible Belt.

Satellite image of Hurricane Florence (Sept 12, 2018)

Strong language has been coming from the Meteorology community with this one - words like "life-threatening" and "catastrophic". We all know hurricanes can be damaging near and just inland of a coastline - nothing overly new there regarding Florence. The problem with this storm, though, is the potential for it to slow down after landfall, potentially dropping one to two FEET of rain along its path as it takes a scenic trip around the Southeast.

Because of this potential, Meteorologists are encouraging "prepare, prepare, prepare". Meanwhile, the Bible Belt is encouraging "pray, pray, pray". So, should we pray? Should we prepare? Maybe a 60/40 blend of prayer and preparation? Slap up a piece of plywood, then pray for 5 minutes kind of a deal sounds good. But, what about those who don't believe in God? I suppose they'll have more boards on their houses...

I jest a little there, but seriously, what do we make of this? I personally find myself in a unique place because I speak from the Meteorology community and the Bible Belt. I am a firm believer in the Creator of this place we call earth, but I am also a firm believer in the science of this thing we call weather.

The bridge between the two is socked in with fog, making for some difficult unknowns.

Is there actually a God on the other side? And, if so, will he stop Florence in it's tracks? I have never walked through the fog nor crossed the bridge, but I believe God exists on the other side. I also believe the fog exists and, for whatever reason, is shrouding the view of what is or isn't on the other side.

I 100% believe God can stop Florence dead in its tracks. But, will he? I 100% do not know. As a Meteorologist who believes in God, I have to wrestle with this unknown all the time. I regularly encourage people to prepare...it's core to my job and passion to help people understand the weather. But also core to who I am is the belief that with God, all things are possible - I know, I know, the religious red flag just went up for some. Hang with me...

I don't know if God will stop Florence or not. But, maybe that's not the question we should be asking at a time like this. The better question may be, 'should I prepare?'. The Meteorologist and Bible Belt in me says, emphatically, yes! But, as LeVar Burton used to say on "Reading Rainbow", 'Don't take my word for it'...

"A prudent person foresees danger and takes precautions. The simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences." - Proverbs 22:3 (aka. the Bible)

What Small Town USA Can Teach Us

Last week I did a spotter talk up in the far NE corner of our CWA...a rural town of just over 1200 people and located just south of the US/Canadian border (Chinook, MT). 1% of the population showed up. I would say most of our CWA is rural, with a handful of urban areas mixed in. Leaving that meeting, I started thinking about the needs of small town USA and, of all the things we do in the NWS, what is the most helpful for them.

A couple months ago, I wrote a post about picking your battles. Talking to the people in Chinook, I began to realize that I may be missing the point, or not focusing on the right things, with some of the battles I've picked. When you work in an office that is in a more urban setting, it can be easy to focus on the needs of the urban areas and forget the "little guys". I realize we can't hit every single need of every single person we serve. But, going out on outreach trips can sure be eye-opening.

For me, it was eye-opening in several respects. First off, small town USA doesn't necessarily mean the land of no cell phone signal and no WI-FI anymore. The sheriff had a fancy smartphone AND a cool-colored cover. The nearby fire chief also had a smartphone AND uses the mobile version of NWS' EDD. I gotta be honest, I didn't even know we had a mobile version of that site.

Then there's our products/services. The nearby airport manager said our DSS/partner emails we send out are the most helpful thing to him, not the TAFs. I thought it was cool that this small town airport even reads those emails. I mentioned to the sheriff that he could call us anytime for any weather-related help. He replied that after my spotter talk, he may have enough education to not have to call when the next storm approaches the town's summer fair. Does this represent all small towns? Probably not, but I'll bet it's repeated many times over. And, by the way, this is not meant to be seen as negatives about smaller towns, but as the reality of what's actually going on and what is used in smaller towns.

I guess the point is, we can fight all we want for what we THINK small-town USA needs, but after getting out and talking to the people, we may find we are fighting for the wrong things, at least as far as they are concerned. That's not to say that fighting for the needs of big city USA is wrong if it doesn't mesh with small-town USA. For me, small-town USA has simply helped keep things in perspective.

At the same time, this trip also helped me to see that there are things we fight for that I have always assumed were more helpful for larger cities (like the mobile EDD site). Who knew that working on that site, or something similar, may actually help big and small towns. And, while being available to provide support over the phone is great, maybe it's just not for some small towns. I believe our forecasts, warnings, DSS, etc is incredibly important to the mission of the NWS. But, what struck me that day is that all of that MAY not be what is most helpful for some small towns. Maybe outreach and education is our best service to them. Teaching the sheriff how to spot signs of rotation with an incoming storm might just be what helps him best serve his people even more than an email or phone call. When the sheriff said to me that he may not need to call us, it made me think of my kids. One day they will go to college and not have Mom or Dad right there next to them to help make a decision. That's when common sense and parental education comes in. Hopefully we will have taught them enough to make an informed decision. I hope my talk provided the sheriff enough info to make an informed decision whether he is able to reach out to our office or not.

Going forward, it will likely still be tricky trying to decide which battles to pick and which ones to let go of, but this recent interaction with the people we serve really gave me something to chew on. All of these ideas I've held dear may need a dose of ruralness (yes, I think I made up a word) to keep me in check!

Remembering 4/27 (Part 2 - Lessons Learned)

When I look back on the April 27^th “Super Outbreak”, I am frustrated by my response prior to and during the event. In my last post, I shared my personal experience from that day. If you read my story, you may have picked up on some of the mistakes I made. Whether you picked up on them or not, I’d like to take the time to share where I went wrong in the hopes that others will not make the same mistakes I did…

As a Meteorologist, I am always telling people to take shelter, heed warnings, stay safe, and be prepared. But, what am I conveying to people if I don’t follow those very same calls to action? Many parents will often tell their kids, ‘Do as I say, not as I do’? As a Meteorologist (and a parent, for that matter), I want to turn that phrase around to say ‘Do as I say and do as I do’. It’s a challenge I’ve placed on myself and a challenge I present to any Meteorologist reading this. With that, here are a few lessons I learned from that event…

1. Prepare Early

Severe weather events are interesting because sometimes we (Meteorologists) have a good idea of an event days in advance, like in the case with 4/27. Other events, though, don’t always provide as much lead time. Because of this, I realize that not every event will provide as much time to prepare. My suggestion is do as much preparation as you can with the time you are given.

For starters, have a plan…and this can be something that you come up with even before any severe weather threatens. I have talked to my wife many times about what to do in the event of severe weather. But, one thing we didn’t talk about, unfortunately, was what to do if we couldn’t get ahold of each other. See, I would always call or text her to tell her about any ongoing severe weather. That day, though, there were times when neither texts nor phone calls would go through. During one of the worst parts of that day, as several tornadic storms were racing through the area, I couldn’t call her to tell her what to do which forced her to make some tough decisions with limited information. Come up with a plan that covers what to do during severe weather, including what to do if you can’t get ahold of other family members or friends.

Charge anything and everything…and keep things charged while you have power, if at all possible. It doesn’t take a big event to knock the power out and you never know how long it will take for power to come back on. It helps to plan for several days just to be safe. In this event, Huntsville was without power for nearly a week. I realize one week isn’t necessarily typical of all severe weather events, but it would be wise to at least plan for some sort of outage (short or long). My wife and I didn’t charge our phones or our laptops and once the power was out, all we had was whatever remained of our batteries. By the end of the day, my phone died and I had no way to recharge it. On that note, it really helps to have a phone charger. With many people having smart phones, you may be able to at least get some limited internet even if phone calls aren’t going through. I use Skype or Google to make phone calls sometimes if need be.

On the note of power outages, consider what you will do for meals if you and much of the surrounding area is without power. If you have a grill outside, make sure you have what you need to use it. If you don’t, plan for what you will do to make meals. We did not plan for meals and had to make do with limited resources to make meals. And, remember, the food in your fridge may not last long in a longer outage. You might consider turning the temp settings in your fridge cooler just before the event just in case so that the inside can stay colder for the longest amount of time possible.

2. Don’t Assume Your Regular Sources of Info will be Available

All kinds of things went wrong that day regarding communication of warnings. With power out, tornado sirens, TVs, and weather radios didn’t always work. TVs and radios were still getting info out, but people were limited by battery-powered devices. Landlines and cell phones worked at times, but there were still issues. Landline phones that required power were of little use without electricity. Cell phone towers were clogged or, possibly in some cases, damaged, which made phone calls difficult and texts very slow. The point is, not everything worked that day and if your main source of weather info was down or spotty, you might have missed some important details.

My main go-to when I’m not at work is the internet. When the power went out, I began using the internet on my phone which caused my phone to lose battery quicker. Once the battery died, so did my internet capabilities. We have a weather radio which I use as well. That day, though, the alert tone would sound, but all you could hear was static when the actual text of the warning was supposed to be played (ie. telling where the storm was and where it was headed). Fortunately, radio towers in our area worked and I was able to listen to live coverage from the radio in my car. Even there, though, you need to be careful not to run the car battery down. Again, have backup ways to get info and don’t assume that no information means nothing bad is going on. Backups to your backups are good.

Some of the preparation ideas may seem a bit overdone or perhaps you think it will take too much effort to do them. I still say it is better to be safe than sorry. We didn’t plan well and were sorry. If things go south in a hurry, I bet you will be glad you took that extra time and effort to prepare.

3. Fleeing a Tornado in Your Car is Generally a Bad Idea

My decision to flee the large Hackleburg tornado in my car before it hit Harvest brings up an interesting dilemma. In most cases, I would not recommend this course of action. And, looking back, I feel like it was not my best decision. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20. But, here’s my thought on taking this course of action…

A RELIABLE source (a friend and fellow NWS employee), called me 30+ minutes before the storm was going to hit and said it looked like it was headed in the general direction of our house (a non-brick home that probably would not have survived a direct hit). I assumed that I would not survive a direct hit if I stayed, so I opted to hop in my car and get out of the path of the tornado.

Here’s what actually happened in my case. The tornado turned slightly and didn’t follow the exact path that my friend originally thought it would. Because of this, I was actually driving towards the tornado and not away from it. I can’t say for sure by how much it missed me, but the tornado crossed the road I was driving on within minutes of me passing in front of it. In fact, I later drove back down that road and saw a car that had been thrown into a brick wall (I never found out what actually happened to the driver). And, because of the heavy rain and all the surrounding trees, I was unable to actually see that I was headed towards the tornado and not away from it. Plus, driving 80+ mph down a small county road is probably not a good idea in any weather.

Looking back, I would have been just fine taking cover at my house. Granted, if the tornado had actually hit my house, then driving away would have looked like the better option. I would be lying if I said fleeing a tornado in your car is always a bad idea. But, before you make a decision like that, consider the following:

1.      Do you have a reliable source of info telling you it will hit your house and/or can you physically see the tornado coming at you? And by reliable, I don’t mean your Uncle Harold who happened to notice the possibility of tornadoes in the Farmer’s Almanac. Even if your source is reliable, that doesn’t guarantee perfectly accurate info. Tornadoes don’t always follow a perfect line.

2.      Roads used to flee the tornado could be slowed by traffic and/or blocked by flood waters or storm damage. This, in turn, could actually trap you in your car as the tornado bears down.

3.      Just because you are driving away from one tornado, doesn’t guarantee you won’t be in the path of another tornado. Or what if, like in my case, the tornado changes its path as you flee it? Even veteran storm chasers have sadly been caught off-guard by the erratic motion of tornadoes. In my case, a second tornadic storm developed south of the original one which meant I was now trying to outrun two tornadic storms. Not a good place to be…

4.      Do you even have enough time to get out the door, in your car, and out of your neighborhood? 15 to 20 minutes probably isn’t enough. In my case, 30 minutes was barely enough time.

5.      Once you hit the road, how do you know where to go? I had a radar-certified/trained NWS employee telling me where to go based on radar data. Looking at a radar image on your favorite weather app is not the same thing.

6.      If you live in a mobile home or a house that you don’t feel will survive the storm, are there any other options besides driving away? Maybe a neighbor with a storm shelter or a nearby community storm shelter? In fact, if you are lucky enough to be in an area with a community shelter, you might just consider heading there well in advance of the storms and staying there until the storms pass.

In my case, a series of unwise decisions regarding the decision to flee in my car could have cost me my life. Don’t let my fortunate survival story lead you to believe that it always works. I think in many, if not most, situations, trying to flee a tornado in your car is simply not a good idea.

4. Don’t Wait to See the Tornado Before Taking Cover

The first supercell to hit our house, that wasn’t associated with a MCS, had some rotation with it and, given the atmospheric conditions that day, certainly carried with it a tornado risk. As the storm bore down on Harvest, I could see in the distance a hail shaft and what could be a rain-wrapped tornado. Instead of taking cover, I whipped out the ole video camera. The sound of the storm approaching grew louder and louder (even more indication that a tornado could be forming). Still, I waited to take cover so that I could get that “all-important” footage. The storm hit and unloaded quite a bit of hail. Fortunately, it did not produce a tornado as it moved through. But, if it had, my story might have played out much differently.

I can’t lie…severe storms are quite the sight to see. But, getting that great footage or seeing that incredible sight is not worth the risk of not taking cover. Put your camera on a table or stand and let it roll, but don’t waste precious moments…take cover immediately!

5. Don’t Assume Roadways will be Passable

With so many storms and so many different areas hit that day, roadways in town were a nightmare to navigate. People were trying to get home to see if they even had a house left to get to, roads were flooded, and trees and other debris blocked large sections of roads. Plus, in our case, the sun was going down and everything was turning dark due to the widespread power outage. Have a plan ready in case you can’t get home. Your house might be fine, but if you can’t get to it, you’ll need a place to stay. Or, consider what you will do if you have kids or family members at home and you can’t drive home to get them and have no way to contact them (ie. due to phone outages, etc). Again, I realize some of these issues were due to the widespread nature of the damage and the event, but even smaller events can produce similar results. This sort of goes back to the ‘have a plan’ section, but just consider what you and/or your family will do if some, or all, cannot get back to the house.

In our case, we didn’t have a plan and instead, went driving around looking for each other. We should have established a meeting place or at least some plan for an alternate place to stay. Because we didn’t do that, I ended up trying to drive around to find my wife and was unable to get back to our house. We ended up spending the night in separate places and unable to see each other until the next day after some of the roads had been cleared. Now, even if you do have a meeting place, that location itself could be unreachable. These aren’t error-proof ideas, but at least some things to consider.

This is by no means an exhaustive list of lessons learned during this event. These are the lessons my family and I learned from our experience. There are thousands of other stories out there. Hopefully the lessons learned from their stories will be passed on as well. I’m honestly ashamed that I didn’t practice what I preached, but I have learned my lesson and will never approach severe storms the same way again.

Duck, Cover, and Get Lower

Each spring, the air just seems to change. The smell is different…fresh. Those Downy commercials that advertise spring scent were really on to something. It just feels more relaxing. Spring is one of my favorite times of the year in case you can’t tell, but I don’t think anyone jumped on to read an ode to spring, so I digress…

Being from the South, spring also means something else…severe weather. Not so much here in Montana (as the heart of convective season tends to hold off until a few months from now). Nonetheless, my mind still switches into severe weather mode, if for nothing else but to keep an eye on family and friends still living in the South. This year has already started off on an active note for parts of the country. According to SPC's Tornado Trend Graph, the running count of LSR'd tornadoes through March 4th is above the 75th percentile (see graph below).

In light of recent events, and in switching to meteorological spring, conversations among many Meteorologists inevitably has, or will, involve preparedness/safety and the protection of life and property. Spotter training is, or will soon be, in full swing across the country and preparedness/safety will likely be a hot topic at many conferences and operations floor conversations.

The NWS, media, private companies…we’ve all worked to improve products, freshen wording, learn new techniques, etc in an effort to prepare people prior to an event and then strongly encourage action be taken during an event. Still, lives are lost. Now, I do not say that in a criticizing way at all. We can’t FORCE people to do anything. We warn, they act. The problem is, people don’t always act the we we had hoped. In the movie, "Hitch", Will Smith's character does everything right on a date, but doesn't quite get the response he had hoped (CLIP). I truly believe we are doing a lot of things right, but we still don't always get that expected response.

I know research from social scientists is looking into this which is great. And, of course, research within the Meteorological community is always looking for new ways to use radar, satellite, etc to give clues as to how an event may unfold or how to better detect severe weather as it’s happening. I hope all of that research never stops and that we never stop learning from it (myself included). Recently, though, I've wondered if there is anything else that can be done on top of the great work already in progress.

The office I currently work at (NWS Great Falls) started doing customer surveys this past winter to get at least somewhat of an idea of how the public feels we did in various events. As a part of the survey, there were several questions related to products we issue (advisories, watches/warnings, etc). In reading through those responses, it surprised me how many people thought an advisory was worse than a warning. Of course, with severe weather we don’t have to worry about the advisory/warning distinction, but I’m sure many of you have gotten the, ‘Which is worse...a watch or warning?’ question many times regarding severe weather. To Meteorologists, it seems like such a simple distinction, but isn’t that like some requirement to passing MET 101?

You know that show, “Are You Smarter than a 5^th Grader?". I bet if you ask any 5^th grader what to do if there is a fire in their house, many, if not most, could tell you. Get low and get out, call 911, and so on. I wonder how many of those same kids could tell you what to do if a Tornado Watch or Warning is issued for their area…or even what the difference between the two is? Growing up, we regularly had talks from public safety folks regarding drugs, fires, and seat belts. I realize this varies by location, but for me (even in all my years in the South), I never once remember having a talk by anyone regarding weather safety. In Alabama, we did have regular tornado drills and teachers went over what to do while at school, but no one talked about what to do if you are at home alone, walking home from school, etc. Just thinking aloud here, but what if we could somehow make weather safety as important as fire safety in schools, workplaces, etc? Kids know “Stop, drop, and roll”. What if just as easily they could learn “duck, cover, get lower” (or any sort of catchy phrase)?

Outreach and education is an important part of the NWS mission and I’m sure it is an integral part in other sectors of the weather community as well. But, do we make it as important as the watches and warnings themselves? Again, just thinking aloud, but what if education needs to be made even more important than it already is? I don’t think there is a magic solution that saves every life. As with warnings, people still have a choice to heed those elementary school fire safety lessons, and some may not choose the right decision. But, I also think there are those who make bad decisions because, by no fault of their own, they simply don’t know better. If there is a fire and no one ever taught you how to respond, you’d just have to figure it out on your own (not an easy task in the middle of such a stressful situation). Fire alarms are great, but what makes them even more effective is teaching people how to respond when one goes off. Same goes for those “annoying” weather radios. Them sounding for a warning is great and I’m sure many people instinctively know that something bad is out there, but how much more effective could they be if people had that extra bit of knowledge in how to respond? Same could apply to warnings that people get on their phones...that knowledge of how to respond could prove invaluable!

Maybe, just maybe, nearly as much effort should go into education as goes into the warnings themselves. And not just severe weather warnings, but winter weather, fire weather, all of those. I think the Meteorological community has some great warnings, messaging, etc and I think there have been some really good strides in those products over the years. In addition to that, maybe some really good strides in education will continue to lower the number of fatalities seen each year. 

 I do want to clarify something here. The effort that goes into warnings is pretty stout. In the NWS, for example, there are months of training required before one can even be certified to issue warnings. And once certified, there is the continual interrogation of a wide array of data leading up to a forecaster's decision to pull the trigger on a warning. Add to that, new research and technology that is regularly coming out that gives a forecaster even more to consider. In light of all that, I want to be careful how I compare this with education. What I am comparing is the time and effort spent on research, new technology, etc to enhance warnings and the warning decision process to the time and effort spent on educating our partners and the public. I don't think the time and effort spent on developing/enhancing warnings should change at all and I'm not saying the time/effort spend on education should exactly equal that of warnings, but what I am suggesting is that we up the game even more regarding education. Maybe find ways to get weather safety talks as a regular part of school curricula (like drug and fire safety) where this isn't already happening. I know there is a lot of outreach already being done and I'm just thinking that making it even more commonplace in schools, workplaces, etc could be another step in the attempt to save lives.

"The great aim of education is not knowledge but action" - Herbert Spencer. If we want people to act on our warnings, maybe we need to work even harder at teaching them how...

On a side note, I have only interacted with, worked at, or volunteered at a handful of NWS offices and private weather companies in my career thus far, so my working knowledge of ongoing outreach/education programs is limited. I would love to hear from others out there of what your office/company is doing, what seems to work well, etc. Maybe as a community, we can come up some ideas to further education and pass around what is already working.

And as always, I am just thinking aloud in an attempt to process the challenges faced in the weather community. I could be completely off, so bring on your thoughts and ideas! Let's keep the conversation going...

DISCLAIMER: Opinions are my own and not necessarily that of my employer