Remembering 4/27 (Part 1 - My Personal Experience)

9/11 is a common household name across the country and even much of the world. Ask anyone about that day and there is a good chance most will have some memory from that day whether they were directly affected or not. Ask those same people about 4/27 and you aren’t guaranteed to get the same response…many may not even know what you are talking about. Ask anyone in the Southeast, though, and you will likely get many stories/memories. It’s hard to believe it has been this long, but five years ago many people from Mississippi to New York had their lives turned upside down…literally in some cases.

As we approach the five year anniversary of this widespread and damaging event, I thought I would make a few posts over the coming days, looking back at my experience as well as some things that stuck out to me from that event. For part 1, I would like to rehash the events of that day as it may help to explain my thoughts later this week. Some of you may have read or heard my story before, but for those who haven’t, I would guess that many similar or worse stories played out that day. NOTE: as you read my story, you may pick up on some mistakes that I made regarding preparation for the event and with some of my responses during the event. Later this week I will look at some of those mistakes and what I learned from them in the hope that others will make better choices than we did…

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April 27, 2011 Tornado Outbreak

My Personal Account

Wow, where to begin?? Well, honestly, the craziness of that event started days in advance. In the days prior to that Wednesday (April 27^th), I was watching severe weather and flooding hit areas from Arkansas to Kentucky day after day. Many nights that week (starting Sunday) I would stay up late talking with friends of mine from college (we all studied Meteorology) as we all watched the storms parade across the same areas causing a lot of damage. Some of these storms would edge closer and closer to Alabama each night, but they were mostly in a weakened state. I mention all this because with such an active weather pattern, I was not getting a lot of sleep at night leading up to that Wednesday.

So now we come to Tuesday night (April 26). Again, a lot of storms to our west, but nothing in Alabama. However, late in the evening a line of storms began developing well to our west that I figured would come through north Alabama in some form or fashion with a severe weather threat. Like a lot of my other weather friends, I stayed up until about 1am to see the Storm Prediction Center's (SPC’s) Day 1 Outlook. And, as I expected, north Alabama was put under the rare High Risk of severe weather. As hard as it was to go to sleep, I forced myself to lie down for a few hours knowing I would need the rest.

My "nap" didn't last long. Around 2:30am (yes, only 1.5 hours of sleep), my weather radio went off. The first tornado watch of the day was issued. The squall line was just entering western AL, so I thought maybe I could lay back down for at least another 30 minutes or so. Right about that time, tornado warnings went up for a couple of counties to our west. So, I decided to get up and turn the TV on to watch the wall to wall coverage that I knew would start soon. The squall line continued to race eastward and areas of rotation continued to be seen in the line. As it approached I-65, a tornado warning was issued for Madison County. Much to my wife's dismay, I ran into our bedroom to wake her up around 5am and we got in the center of our house. You could hear the wind howling outside, but no sounds of things breaking. The storm passed, we still had power, and things seemed to be ok. Jen (my wife) went back to sleep.

As I got back on my computer, I saw something that I haven't seen many times before. A meso-low/vortex had developed south of here and was plowing through counties to our south causing a lot of damage. I watched as this "tornado-cane" continued to spin northeast towards Chattanooga (where a lot of my family lives). When I realized it would hit them dead on, I called to get them into their basements. I had to watch the radar for what seemed like eternity as I anxiously awaited to hear from them. Maybe 30 minutes later, I finally got a call from one of my aunts. She said the storm was crazy. She had no power and trees were down everywhere, including one that narrowly missed her house. Other houses in her neighborhood were not so lucky. There is a highway that runs a decent distance beyond her house. You normally can't see the highway because of all the trees in her neighborhood. You can see it now. But, all my family was accounted for and alive! Whew.
Back here in Harvest, things had quieted down with just some light rain falling for a couple of hours after the squall line passed. After talking with a friend of mine (Matt) who also works for the National Weather Service (NWS), we thought the rain MAY keep the atmosphere stable over north Alabama. As it turns out, it didn't. Shortly after talking with Matt, the sun came out and things began to warm up. Not to mention, there was an 80kt LLJ (Low-Level Jet) developing across Alabama that continued to advect warm, moist, and unstable air back into the area and it was making me nervous.

Later that morning, around 9am, more storms began developing to our west across MS. These storms formed into a line and began marching towards AL for round two. At the same time, an isolated storm developed out ahead of the line (which usually means trouble). This storm had some rotation with it and it strengthened some as it moved towards Madison County. And, again, tornado sirens started blaring. I began watching out my window to see the storm. As it approached, I began hearing a loud sound that I originally thought was a possible tornado or at least some high winds. I could see the rain shaft approaching and figured it could be a rain-wrapped tornado. Then it hit. Fortunately, that loud sound was NOT a tornado. It was actually hail. The hail was not that big (only about 0.75"), but it was the loudest hailstorm I have ever experienced. Hail was raining down hard and fast. The hail was so loud that it could be heard from far away as the storm approached (the loud sound I heard). The ground was covered in a broken layer of white. Wow! That was storm two.

Then, around 10am, the 2nd squall line came through. Again, sirens blared as a tornado warning was issued. I was watching the storms approach from my garage with the door open. The sky to the west was dark and green so I figured it would at least have some hail. Then it hit. Strong winds over 50mph began hitting the house along with hail. The lights began flickering. At that point, I tried to close the garage door. But, as Murphy's Law would have it, the power went off before the door shut. So I ran over and closed it manually then ran back into the house. The wind continued strong for a bit longer, then quit. With no power, I had to rely on internet on my phone and radio in my car. I listened as storm reports began coming in from Madison County, specifically the Madison and Harvest areas. Reports of trees and power lines down everywhere. Later, NWS surveys determined that some of this damage was tornado-caused. I did a quick check on our house and determined that no damage had been done. But, now I was stuck in my house because my car was stuck in the garage with a door that I assumed I could not open manually.

For the next couple of hours I continued to get updates from Matt, my phone, and the radio in my car. I listened as the first of many tornadic supercells began moving into Alabama with Cullman County getting hit first. Then I got a call that I will never forget. Matt called and said that reports of a 1/2 mile wide tornado on the ground were coming in from near Phil Campbell, AL. Matt said, "Roger, if this storm holds together, it will hit northwest Madison County within the hour." Oftentimes, tornadic storms will produce multiple tornadoes, but not necessarily one continuously. However, I knew that today the conditions were such that any tornado that developed could be large, possibly violent, and long-track. When Matt told me this, I started getting concerned. I told him the car was stuck in the garage and he said I should figure some way to get it opened. See, I live in a wood house which would most likely not survive a direct hit from a tornado. I knew I couldn't stay. So, I went through the house and began getting some important things (legal docs, medical history, etc) and put them in my car. Around that time, Matt called again and said the tornado was holding together and was headed straight for Harvest. About this time, my weather radio went off as the NWS in Huntsville issued the tornado warning for Madison County ahead of the approaching tornado. Eerily, though, all I heard after the warning tone was static (instead of the normal voice that comes on with the wording of the warning).

I ran to the garage and was finally able to get the door open manually. As I pulled out of the garage, I was struck with a fear I have not experienced before. The lightning was ridiculous and the sky was an eery green, AGAIN. But, the fear came from what I saw when I looked up. There were pieced of debris (mostly small) flying around in the air above me and landing in our yard. Not any huge pieces, but small pieces of wood, paper, insulation, etc. I knew that the tornado had to be close. I honestly thought I was too late. I kept trying to call Matt frantically wanting to know what was going on. Keep in mind, the power never came back on at the house, so I didn't have all of my normal sources for weather information that I use to follow storms. All I had was the car radio and Matt. And, I couldn't use the internet on my phone because my battery was dying (I had no car charger at the time). 

I finally got through and he told me that I may be too late. He said I should drive as fast as possible if I wanted to leave. I was in a bit of freak out mode at this point. So, I pulled out of my driveway, and started going about 80 mph down Harvest road headed east. I thought I was driving AWAY from the tornado, but little did I know I was driving towards it! As I was driving, small pieces of debris continued to hit my car as it fell from the sky. Then I hit traffic on Jordan Lane. It was around 4pm and some people were getting off work early due to the storms. It was chaotic because none of the traffic lights worked due to the previous power outage. Also, with all the rain we had, roads were beginning to flood. I could barely see because of the rain, so I pulled into a gas station south of the storm's path near the Jordan Lane / Research Park intersection. I was able to call Jen real quick. I told her to stay at work and to NOT come home (if we even had one still).

Then, a second tornadic storm developed south of the original one. This storm was headed straight for the gas station I was at. So, I tried to get away from that storm. It was so hard to see…lightning was flashing everywhere and there was a lot of hail coming down.. The hail sounded like it was at least golf ball sized. Crazy doesn't even describe the feeling. I pulled into a neighborhood and tried calling Matt again. He said I was stuck and that he didn't know what I should do. The hail started getting worse and I knew this could be the hail core that often proceeds or is near a developing tornado. I figured I wouldn't survive in my car so I ran into the nearest house and began banging on the door. No answer…lightning getting worse. I was ready to just crouch down and ride it out on this porch. I was honestly afraid for my life (AGAIN). Then, I heard a noise, the door opened! This amazingly nice, young couple let me in and we spent the next hour together in their bathroom as storm after storm trained over the area. You could hear the hail hitting the roof. I imagine the hail was a bit bigger than what hit our house earlier. Then it calmed down finally.

Then we heard a new sound. A continuous stream of cops, ambulances, and fire trucks were headed north on Jordan Lane towards Harvest. Reports of people being trapped were coming in. I assumed I didn't have a house anymore. But, I wanted to get home to see. About 2 hours later, around 7pm, I finally got back to my neighborhood after driving through street after street of flooding and damage. Many roads were impassible. Much to my amazement, when I got to our street, I could see our house still standing! Wow. We were so fortunate compared to other parts of our county and state. When I got home, the last of, I can't even remember how many, storms hit. More strong wind and hail, but no damage to the house. It was now around 8pm and I had not heard from Jen (she usually gets off at 5). My goal now was to try to locate her. With all the impassible roads, I knew I couldn't drive around to find her. Cell phones were mostly useless as towers were damaged and the ones working were clogged with so many people trying to make calls. Little did I know, the call I made to her from the gas station around 4pm was the last time I would be able to call her that day.

At this point, I had been running on pure adrenaline. I had only gotten about 2 hours of sleep the night before and I hadn't eaten since breakfast that morning (too many storms and no power). I was exhausted, my head hurt, and I wanted to hear from Jen. Then, I got a text. She said she was at a friend's house! Relief. So, good decision or not, I was determined to go be with her. I drove to her friend's house which was only a few miles away. However, that three mile drive took over an hour. I got to her friend's house, only to discover she wasn't there. When I tried to get back home, the roads had been closed. Now I had to find somewhere to spend the night. I was so tired, I knew I would just have to continue my search for Jen in the morning. So, I drove to another friend's house in Huntsville. I finally got word from my Mom that she had spoken with Jen and that she was safe! God was so good to let me know this before going to bed. 

I slept for a long time, then made the trek back home the next morning (April 28). There was devastation everywhere. Whole buildings and houses were severely damaged or gone altogether. It was a much different Harvest than I once knew. I finally made it home and there was Jen!  We hugged for a while then shared stories from the day before. And, I ate again for the first time in 24 hours. In the days after, we stayed at many people's houses and did a lot of grilling out. Power was out across all of Huntsville. The main transmission lines that carried power into the area had been taken down by the tornado that passed through Harvest. Power finally came back on a week later (the following Wednesday). Harvest will never be the same...Alabama will never be the same...much of the Southeastern US will never be the same…I will never be the same. I now have an even greater appreciation for severe weather. As a Meteorologist, I thought I was prepared; I wasn't. Next time, I will be even better prepared.

I have to thank a few people. First, God. God, thank you for protecting me and Jen and our house! Thanks to all those who housed us that week (you know who you are). I’m so thankful for Matt keeping an eye out for Jen and I and for keeping us updated during the event! Thanks, too, to all of the EMA, media, and NWS folks who spent tireless hours working hard to warn, protect, and serve the people of north Alabama. Thanks everyone else who called and checked on us during the event and thanks for the prayers.

A few of my pictures from the event below:

A look at one of the early supercells that came through (this is the one that only had hail with it). Small cell, but it had a well-defined structure to it. Notice the hail shaft off to the right of the picture. There was so much hail falling, I could already begin to hear the hail as I took the picture.

 A short video I took as the hail storm moved through (I would adjust your volume down before hitting play...)

This is the NWS Huntsville's path map of the Hackleburg to Harvest tornado that passed about 4 miles south of our house (I added annotations of where our house was at the time)

No damage at our house, but it was quite a different story a few miles to our south where the tornado moved through.

Amazing how these brick walls were just folded over like this.

Then came the slabs. Many more slabs in this area than I expected (ie. slab only, because the houses were completely ripped off).

A look at the Piggly Wiggly in town where we shopped some. 17 people were trapped in the back of the store, but were later rescued

Here is a look at those transmission lines that bring power into the Huntsville area...they were twisted and dropped

Duck, Cover, and Get Lower

Each spring, the air just seems to change. The smell is different…fresh. Those Downy commercials that advertise spring scent were really on to something. It just feels more relaxing. Spring is one of my favorite times of the year in case you can’t tell, but I don’t think anyone jumped on to read an ode to spring, so I digress…

Being from the South, spring also means something else…severe weather. Not so much here in Montana (as the heart of convective season tends to hold off until a few months from now). Nonetheless, my mind still switches into severe weather mode, if for nothing else but to keep an eye on family and friends still living in the South. This year has already started off on an active note for parts of the country. According to SPC's Tornado Trend Graph, the running count of LSR'd tornadoes through March 4th is above the 75th percentile (see graph below).

In light of recent events, and in switching to meteorological spring, conversations among many Meteorologists inevitably has, or will, involve preparedness/safety and the protection of life and property. Spotter training is, or will soon be, in full swing across the country and preparedness/safety will likely be a hot topic at many conferences and operations floor conversations.

The NWS, media, private companies…we’ve all worked to improve products, freshen wording, learn new techniques, etc in an effort to prepare people prior to an event and then strongly encourage action be taken during an event. Still, lives are lost. Now, I do not say that in a criticizing way at all. We can’t FORCE people to do anything. We warn, they act. The problem is, people don’t always act the we we had hoped. In the movie, "Hitch", Will Smith's character does everything right on a date, but doesn't quite get the response he had hoped (CLIP). I truly believe we are doing a lot of things right, but we still don't always get that expected response.

I know research from social scientists is looking into this which is great. And, of course, research within the Meteorological community is always looking for new ways to use radar, satellite, etc to give clues as to how an event may unfold or how to better detect severe weather as it’s happening. I hope all of that research never stops and that we never stop learning from it (myself included). Recently, though, I've wondered if there is anything else that can be done on top of the great work already in progress.

The office I currently work at (NWS Great Falls) started doing customer surveys this past winter to get at least somewhat of an idea of how the public feels we did in various events. As a part of the survey, there were several questions related to products we issue (advisories, watches/warnings, etc). In reading through those responses, it surprised me how many people thought an advisory was worse than a warning. Of course, with severe weather we don’t have to worry about the advisory/warning distinction, but I’m sure many of you have gotten the, ‘Which is worse...a watch or warning?’ question many times regarding severe weather. To Meteorologists, it seems like such a simple distinction, but isn’t that like some requirement to passing MET 101?

You know that show, “Are You Smarter than a 5^th Grader?". I bet if you ask any 5^th grader what to do if there is a fire in their house, many, if not most, could tell you. Get low and get out, call 911, and so on. I wonder how many of those same kids could tell you what to do if a Tornado Watch or Warning is issued for their area…or even what the difference between the two is? Growing up, we regularly had talks from public safety folks regarding drugs, fires, and seat belts. I realize this varies by location, but for me (even in all my years in the South), I never once remember having a talk by anyone regarding weather safety. In Alabama, we did have regular tornado drills and teachers went over what to do while at school, but no one talked about what to do if you are at home alone, walking home from school, etc. Just thinking aloud here, but what if we could somehow make weather safety as important as fire safety in schools, workplaces, etc? Kids know “Stop, drop, and roll”. What if just as easily they could learn “duck, cover, get lower” (or any sort of catchy phrase)?

Outreach and education is an important part of the NWS mission and I’m sure it is an integral part in other sectors of the weather community as well. But, do we make it as important as the watches and warnings themselves? Again, just thinking aloud, but what if education needs to be made even more important than it already is? I don’t think there is a magic solution that saves every life. As with warnings, people still have a choice to heed those elementary school fire safety lessons, and some may not choose the right decision. But, I also think there are those who make bad decisions because, by no fault of their own, they simply don’t know better. If there is a fire and no one ever taught you how to respond, you’d just have to figure it out on your own (not an easy task in the middle of such a stressful situation). Fire alarms are great, but what makes them even more effective is teaching people how to respond when one goes off. Same goes for those “annoying” weather radios. Them sounding for a warning is great and I’m sure many people instinctively know that something bad is out there, but how much more effective could they be if people had that extra bit of knowledge in how to respond? Same could apply to warnings that people get on their phones...that knowledge of how to respond could prove invaluable!

Maybe, just maybe, nearly as much effort should go into education as goes into the warnings themselves. And not just severe weather warnings, but winter weather, fire weather, all of those. I think the Meteorological community has some great warnings, messaging, etc and I think there have been some really good strides in those products over the years. In addition to that, maybe some really good strides in education will continue to lower the number of fatalities seen each year. 

 I do want to clarify something here. The effort that goes into warnings is pretty stout. In the NWS, for example, there are months of training required before one can even be certified to issue warnings. And once certified, there is the continual interrogation of a wide array of data leading up to a forecaster's decision to pull the trigger on a warning. Add to that, new research and technology that is regularly coming out that gives a forecaster even more to consider. In light of all that, I want to be careful how I compare this with education. What I am comparing is the time and effort spent on research, new technology, etc to enhance warnings and the warning decision process to the time and effort spent on educating our partners and the public. I don't think the time and effort spent on developing/enhancing warnings should change at all and I'm not saying the time/effort spend on education should exactly equal that of warnings, but what I am suggesting is that we up the game even more regarding education. Maybe find ways to get weather safety talks as a regular part of school curricula (like drug and fire safety) where this isn't already happening. I know there is a lot of outreach already being done and I'm just thinking that making it even more commonplace in schools, workplaces, etc could be another step in the attempt to save lives.

"The great aim of education is not knowledge but action" - Herbert Spencer. If we want people to act on our warnings, maybe we need to work even harder at teaching them how...

On a side note, I have only interacted with, worked at, or volunteered at a handful of NWS offices and private weather companies in my career thus far, so my working knowledge of ongoing outreach/education programs is limited. I would love to hear from others out there of what your office/company is doing, what seems to work well, etc. Maybe as a community, we can come up some ideas to further education and pass around what is already working.

And as always, I am just thinking aloud in an attempt to process the challenges faced in the weather community. I could be completely off, so bring on your thoughts and ideas! Let's keep the conversation going...

DISCLAIMER: Opinions are my own and not necessarily that of my employer

Meteorological Tunnel Vision

...and a possible explanation why the chicken crossed the road.

As a Meteorologist, I have seen a lot of unfortunate events play out due to the weather. Houses blown apart by tornadoes, whole sections of cities submerged by floodwaters, coastlines ravaged, and the list could go on and on. Those losses are bad, but if no one is killed or seriously injured, I tend to look at the event as a success from a warning standpoint in the sense that people were warned, they listened, and no one died.

Then there are the casualties from people doing what I would consider unwise…not seeking shelter with an approaching tornado, driving through flooded streets, standing outside in a thunderstorm, and again, the list could go on and on. One of my passions is helping people understand the weather so that they can make smart, informed decisions. Whether that be outreach or warnings, my goal is to provide the best information possible and, in turn, hopefully save some lives. Out of this passion comes frustration when I hear of casualties that were, in my view, avoidable. Don’t get me wrong, I am saddened that they happen, but I struggle when people do not heed our warnings.

Passion is a funny thing, though. I believe it’s an important part of life and a great trait to have in any profession. But, I also believe that with passion comes responsibility. Among other things, passion can sometimes cause tunnel-vision. A person can get so focused on something that their surroundings grow blurry or even get ignored.

For years, I totally missed a very important aspect of the decision-making process during severe weather events. Unintentionally, my tunnel-vision led me to believe that when people ignore a warning, it is out of pride, ignorance, or just plain foolish. Boy, did I need a wake-up call…and I got that call a little over a year ago.

On April 28, 2014 (almost 3 years to the day after the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak), severe weather broke out across parts of the Southeast. I was living in northern Alabama at the time and was closely following the event, both during and after. Following the event, stories began emerging about people who had lost their lives. One such story had the headline, “2 Killed in Limestone were Mother, Adult Son who Refused to Go to Shelter, Park Owner Says”.

Warnings were out, a tornado was reported, the mobile home park owner was going door to door warning people, AND there was a shelter right there in the park. I mean, clearly, anyone not heeding those warnings and not taking shelter had to be in one of those unwise categories. My weather-focused brain simply assumed there was no other possibility.

A follow-up to the original story revealed a very important aspect that wasn’t initially reported. The mother in the story was terrified of leaving her home and she begged others in the house not to leave her. Everyone decided to take shelter except her son…he decided to stay with his Mom. Reading that was like a punch in the face. I mean, this guy wasn’t foolish, he was a hero. If someone jumps in front of a car to save someone else, do we say, ‘Well gosh, that was stupid?’ No, we praise their valiant effort to save a life. The guy in this story risked his life, presumably to make sure his mother wasn’t alone in her state of fear. Whoa, what do we do with that?

More recently, a lot of people have been criticized for their behavior around floodwaters with the major flooding event in the Carolinas. If you’ve followed the event at all, you have probably seen many posts and/or videos of people making what appears to be very unwise decisions. Flood warnings are out, we’ve preached “Turn Around, Don’t Drown”, the EMA is saying please stay off roads. And what are people doing? Driving on roads…and flooded roads at that! ‘Ugh, what the heck are they thinking?’ Well maybe, just maybe, we don’t always know the answer to that.

A NWS colleague of mine addressed that vary question: “Some people do [unwise] things in dangerous situations. But it's unfair to tar all that way, and probably counterproductive”. I can't agree more! He goes on to say that there “...will always be some things beyond [Meteorologists]. A person whose boss tells them their job rides on showing up in a flood...I'm not gonna blame them for choosing ‘maybe die’ over ‘definitely living with no income’”.

For me the takeaway is don’t be quick to categorize people. I believe there will be those people who, for no good reason, ignore warnings. But, at the same time, I believe there will also be those who choose not to listen to warnings due to factors beyond us…factors that motivate individuals to make unwise decisions based on what to them are higher-priority concerns. Jumping in front of a moving car is not a wise decision in of itself, but for some, saving a life is more important.

So taking off the tunnel-vision glasses and seeing the bigger picture, does that change anything with our messaging during hazardous weather events? I mean, we can’t say ‘This tornado will be near location X at 8:00Am. Take cover now unless your boss says come to work.’

I don’t think realizing that people have more than just weather to consider drastically changes our messaging, but I do think it changes how we view the very people we are trying to warn. If I see someone crossing a flooded road and immediately come down on them for acting stupidly (without knowing all the facts), how do I expect them to be quick to listen to me next time I warn them of something? It’s potentially counter-productive in that it may cause some people to not be as quick to listen. I mean, if someone at my work constantly criticizes me, how quick am I going to be the next time they actually offer valuable advice? Probably not as receptive. I believe that changing our perspective towards people offers the chance to build trust with them and maintain a good Meteorologist-to-public relationship. And, perhaps, that trust/relationship will lead to good decision-making when other important factors are not in the mix.

Maybe the answer to the age old question of ‘Why did the chicken cross the flooded road?’ isn’t always because she was unwisely ignoring the warnings. Maybe it was simply more important to her to try and rescue her chicks stranded on the other side…

Remembering Katrina; My Personal Experience

When I was young, I would oftentimes watch those 'it-could-happen-tomorrow' shows on The Weather Channel where they would run through worse case scenarios of big weather events in big cities. Watching those shows was neat, but deep down I figured it most likely would never happen...at least not in my lifetime. I remember watching one episode that went through the what if scenario of a big hurricane hitting New Orleans. It talked about how parts of the city sit below sea level and that the worst case scenario would be a big hurricane pushing all the surrounding water into the city. Again, interesting to watch, but not something I ever thought I'd see. 10 years ago, I watched that worst-case-scenario play out on TWC once again. This time, though, it wasn't a show...

In 2004, I moved to Mobile, AL to chase my dream of becoming a Meteorologist. I began attending the University of South Alabama, a nice school with a great Meteorology program, located on the Gulf Coast. I didn't go there for a tropical focus (my focus has always been convective/severe weather), but the tropics quickly came to me.

2004 Hurricane Season Tracks

2005 Hurricane Season Tracks

2004 and 2005 (my first two years of college) were very busy in the tropical Atlantic. Being at a school along the coast, that meant a lot of real world learning/experience.

That first semester at South, I had only been in class for a few weeks before a major hurricane (Ivan) came knocking. It made landfall just east of Mobile on September 16, 2004. That, alone, was quite an experience for me, especially since I had just moved to the area a few months prior. But, that's a story for another day. The point of mentioning the 2004 season is that I moved to the Gulf Coast just in time for a very active couple of years in the tropics and the fact that the 2005 season was proceeded by an active period for residents along much of the Gulf Coast.

2005 quickly picked up where 2004 left off. Storms started developing early in the summer ahead of the typical peak in tropical activity. First came Arlene in June, making landfall as a tropical storm just east of Mobile. Next came Cindy which passed just west of Mobile as a tropical storm in July (interestingly, this storm actually made landfall as a weak hurricane very near where Katrina would later make landfall). Oh, and the season just kept going. Dennis followed quickly on Cindy's heels, making landfall east of Mobile as a major hurricane. In case you aren't keeping track...that's 3 tropical systems to pass near Mobile in a one month period. For Mobile, the area escaped the worst of the damage, especially considering what Dennis did to parts of the Florida Panhandle. I would say, though, that those storms and the storms of 2004 were making people along the north-central Gulf Coast grow weary.

Then came late-August of 2005. Thunderstorm activity in and around the Bahamas gradually became more organized and on August 23rd, a tropical depression developed over the southeastern Bahamas. The system continued to intensify and was named Katrina on August 24th. On the 25th, it made landfall as a hurricane along the SE coast of Florida.

Friday AM NHC Forecast Track

I remember going to class Friday morning, Aug 26 and one of my Meteorology instructors showed the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) which took the storm east of Mobile (image to the right). As you can see, Mobile was in the cone of uncertainty, but the official forecast took it well east of Mobile, much to the relief of Mobilians. What I remember most about the class that day was someone asking about class being cancelled the following week. Our instructor said, 'Don't worry...we'll have class on Monday'. To be clear, that is not at all a jab at my instructor. I point that out because I think many in Mobile shared the sentiment that it would be that big of a deal for Mobile.

After class that day, I headed to work. At the time I was a cashier at Winn-Dixie. I was scheduled to work from 2-9 pm or so. I went to work knowing there would be some talk about the storm, but with the forecast track taking it east of Mobile, I didn't expect too much excitement. It was fairly busy that afternoon, but nothing too surprising at first. Then, somewhere between 4-5pm, there was a marked increase in people coming into the store. Rush hour was always busy at the store with people stopping in on their way home from work. But this was different. I remember watching the front doors of the store with what seemed like a non-stop wave of people coming in. Chatter about the storm was increasing and I soon found out why.

5pm NHC Forecast Track

Notice the shift that occurred from the 11am forecast to the 5pm forecast. The new forecast came out at 5pm EDT which was 4pm CDT (right around the time of increasing traffic at the store). Clearly, word had quickly gotten around that there was a significant change to the forecast. Being very hurricane savvy, Mobilians didn't waste time preparing. This track painted a worst-case scenario for the Mobile area (a large hurricane moving up just west of town with the eye wall passing over the city and pushing a surge of water straight up Mobile Bay). The rest of that day at work was a blur and I can't even remember what time I got off. I remember looking down at my register at some point during the barrage of people and seeing a cold can of Coke sitting there. Someone was going around buying Cokes for all of the cashiers, knowing that we were working like crazy. On a side note, random acts of kindness go a long way!

I continued to work through the weekend and it stayed very busy. I helped close down the store Saturday night, August 27th. In preparation for the storm, we boarded up the front windows of the store, closing off all, but one of our front doors so that people could get in and out. Leaving work Saturday night, I had no idea what I would come back to or even when I would come back to work.

I can't speak for all Meteorologists, but when there is a big event threatening, it is hard to go to sleep. That night after work I looked at model data, read discussions, and watched the news. At some point I crashed. At this point, I should say that Katrina was looking strong/healthy, but not off-the-charts impressive to me. That all changed when I woke up Sunday morning, August 28th, to see this:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/?n=hurricane_katrina

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Warnings from the media, the National Weather Service (NWS), etc were great in this event, but tack on a picture like this and you will really get people's attention. While I can't speak for other areas, I can say that on Sunday morning (Aug 28) when this image was taken, people in Mobile really seemed to take even more notice than before. On my way into church that morning, I remember seeing people rushing around to do last-minute preparations. My guess is that some of those people didn't the storm as seriously at first until they saw this image. It's like watching a tornado bearing down on your house...it's simply hard to ignore.

After church, I headed to my apartment to make some last-minute preparations, then went back to church where I planned to ride out the storm with several college friends and a few people from church. Being that the church was a solid brick building, I assumed it would be safer than my non-brick apartment. Most of the day Sunday (Aug 28) was fairly uneventful. Outer bands of the storm started hitting the Mobile area Sunday evening. The bands had some gusty winds, and even some lightning, but nothing too significant. It really was more or less the calm before the storm. The church I was staying at was located on one of the busiest streets in Mobile. That night, we only saw a car go by every now and then...eerily quiet for such a big city.

Late that night, I did a quick check of the news before heading to bed. At this point, Katrina was a 160-mph hurricane. The forecast track had shifted west and landfall was now expected along the SE Louisiana coastline. Still a bad track for Mobile, but it wasn't looking like the worst-case scenario like it did a couple days prior.

As I laid down for the night, I could hear the wind start to pick up outside. At some point in the middle of the night, I was awakened by the sound of something banging on the window near where I was sleeping. I got up to see that a piece of metal had been broken loose and was repeatedly hitting the window. By the time I got up Monday morning, August 28, the wind was really starting to increase. The squalls had arrived and there were frequent strong to severe wind gusts. I was able to watch the news for about an hour or so, but around 7 or 8am, the power went off (and that would be the last time we would have power for several days).

As the wind increased, so did the damage. At one point we heard a loud noise on the roof of the church...like something large rolling across it. A large section of the roof of the building had literally peeled off and then landed on the cars below. Fortunately my car was missed, but some of my friends were not so fortunate. One car in particular had a 2x4 go straight through the windshield and into the floor board.

With part of the roof gone, water was now leaking down into the building. We quickly moved everything from that side of the building to other parts of the building to limit the amount of water damage. Some additional damage occurred at the church, but by then end of the day Monday, the worst was over as Katrina made quick progress inland.With part of the roof missing, me and the other people I was staying with had to move to a different building that still had a roof intact. We stayed there through Monday night.

On Tuesday, Aug 29, the storm was now well inland and it was time for assessment and cleanup. Part of the assessment at this point was figuring out what to do. The city was without power and some of my friends who had stayed decided to leave and head out of town knowing that school wouldn't be back in session for awhile. It was interesting, because I'm not sure people around the area knew, exactly, what all had transpired. The Univ. of South Alabama, for example, kept only cancelling classes one day at a time. Eventually, though, they finally said school will be cancelled until further notice (I'm sure after realizing just how far-reaching the impacts were with the storm).

I eventually made my way back to my apartment on Tuesday (Aug 28). Trees and wires were down all over town and many homes had sustained minor to significant damage. Much of the damage appeared to be from trees falling onto houses. One mobile home I drove by, though, had been completely flattened. So, there were certainly pockets of more significant damage. One such area of damage was right along Mobile Bay.

Large ad sign through a building

Typical roof damage around town

On a side note, there was an apartment complex along the Bay that I was hoping to move into in August that year. I was really disappointed that it didn't work out at first, but in the end I am very glad it didn't work out...

Apartment complex I had tried to rent a few weeks before the storm hit

 When I got to my complex (that was further inland), I was relieved to find my building still in one piece. That wasn't the case, though, for other buildings in my complex. The building right next to mine as well as several others had sustained significant siding and roof damage. My building only sustained some minor roof damage.

Apartment building next to mine

Meals that week consisted of eating when you could. All of the food in my fridge had gone bad, so all that was left was dried goods. Gotta love cereal! I did get a meal or two from friends who were cooking what they could salvage on grills. It was like one big camp fire around town as many other people were doing the same thing. At night, sleeping was tough with no A/C and summer-time temps continuing. Each night there was a buzz in the air as people all over were running generators. I remember, too, just how dark it was at night. Mobile was never dark at night. But, with no power, it was eerily pitch-black. I should say, though, that as rough as it is sleeping in a hot apartment with no A/C, it doesn't at all compare to sleeping in a stadium or a bridge or under the stars (like many people in New Orleans had to do). And, at least I still had a home (something that many along Katrina's path couldn't say that week).

At my job at Winn-Dixie, people just showed up to work when they could. The store had generators to run the cash registers and a few lights, but that was about it. With school out, I just went to work and worked when I could. The freezers and coolers didn't have power, so all that food was going bad. I remember going back to the dairy section at one point and seeing dough all over the place. The heat had caused many of the refrigerated pizza dough, cookie dough, etc cans to pop and spill out everywhere. Some people would buy the cold stuff because we couldn't stop them, but there really wasn't much left that was good. Mostly, people were just buying dried goods. I've got to say, though, that people were fairly calm and reasonable. We did what we could to help people out, but cards only worked sporadically and cash was limited to what we had in the store.

At some point that week, I began to run out of gas. Lesson learned. In the future, I will always fill up before a big event. I was tight on cash before the storm, but I still should have put more than a half a tank in. Anyways, getting gas was a day-long affair. With many areas still without power, some stations weren't open or weren't pumping gas. Those that were pumping gas had VERY long lines. The first station I went to ran out while I waited in line.

By the second station, I was running on E and wasn't sure I'd make it. But, fortunately, I made it just in time. Many stations were capping people off at 20 gallons or so. Because of all the craziness, police were assigned to some of the stations to keep things orderly. On a related note, police were also assigned to some of the bigger intersections in town with power out and, in some cases, few or no traffic lights left hanging. It was weird to pull up to an intersection with 6+ lanes and only see one traffic lights left hanging.

A week after the storm had hit, the power gradually came back on for much of the city, classes resumed, and some normalcy could be felt. That said, normal would take months and even years to return to the region. And, even 10 years later, there are still some areas where pre-Katrina normals haven't come back.

My Katrina experience was certainly an interesting one, but I have to say that I was incredibly fortunate compared to many others along the Gulf Coast. I still had a home to go back to and thousands of families could not say the same thing. My parents (who lived in Connecticut at the time) took in one of those homeless family's for several months. The couple, from New Orleans, told my parents that they saw their flooded house on the news one day and decided to never go back. I can't even imagine leaving your home and just not going back. They literally started over and I believe are still living a new life in CT. I would imagine that story played out over and over for many people along the Gulf Coast.

As we all reflect on Katrina, I want to remember those who lost so much (homes, livelihoods, friends, families). I've heard some amazing stories of people who, despite all that, still carried on and worked hard to rebuild. The Gulf Coast is a great region in the US that took a sucker punch to the face...and not just from Katrina, but from several tropical storms and hurricanes in 2004 and 2005, from Texas to Florida. The entire region felt the effects in some way or another from the Hurricane seasons those years.

I also want to remember all of those people involved in forecasting and warning for that event. I'm sure countless hours of energy and overtime went into preparing the people of the Gulf Coast as best as they knew how. Meteorologists from all over the region went above and beyond to get the message across. As a Meteorologist, I have always looked up to those men and women and hope to be just as bold, calm, and informative in the whatever hazardous weather events I may face in my career. In that same breath, one cannot forget the work of first-responders to prepare, evacuate, and rescue those in danger...true heroes in my book.

I certainly will never forget what I experienced those years and all that happened to the region. I learned many lessons during Katrina both personally and as a Meteorologist that continue to impact how I plan for and forecast for big weather events to this day. I hope as a region and a Nation, the lessons learned from that event will also continue to carry over into future big weather events.

The Winter Storm that Never Was

Ah, winter. Cold weather, numerous holidays, and...weekly winter storms that never actually occur. Ok, so obviously winter storms do happen on some weeks. It's those storms-that-never-were that have been getting a lot of attention lately.

I would venture to say that come late November or early December and continuing through late-spring, a winter storm can be found at some point in any forecast cycle of the GFS. The problem is, it is often found beyond the 7-day / 180hr timeframe and it often doesn't play out like the GFS (or other models) claims it will. As Meteorologists, we know this. But, let's be honest, it is really fun to look at the GFS beyond 180 hrs to see the "eye candy" as I've heard many call it. I am not a doctor, but I hear that candy isn't always the best for you and yet it is still being passed out on a weekly basis.

My concern is that as Meteorologists we are doing a disservice to the ones it is our duty to serve. Can I go as far as saying that it is like a dentist passing out toothbrushes AND candy? Some great maps and charts ("toothbrushes") are spread around prior to an upcoming event, but then those end-of-the-world snow maps (ie. the candy) are mixed in. I am no authority in the weather community, but I just feel like we have to think of the potential consequences of passing that candy around.

In my opinion, one of our core responsibilities (regardless of sector) is to serve our clients, whether that be the public, a paying customer, or a business. When we post, share, or link to a model's "blizzard-of-the-year" output at 384 hours, what are we accomplishing?

I read a great blog post recently by Victor Gensini on this very issue. Check out his blog post HERE. He hit on a lot of the core issues with these posts, so I won't rehash that. But, a few thoughts to add...

1) If a model solution matches up closely with your own forecast, then fine. Maybe you don't have a fancy map-making tool and it is just easier to post a model's output with some sort of caption that clarifies the map shown is a model forecast, but that it matches closely with your thinking. But, how many of us actually make detailed forecasts for our clients 384 hours out? I know some do, but for the rest, maybe we should wait until the model's output is within our forecast period.

2) Post a map of your own, if possible. Many NWS offices, media outlets, and private sector company's do this. Right or wrong, it is their personalized forecast that incorporates analysis of many model solutions by the forecaster(s) on duty. I believe our clients are best-served when WE analyze each model's solution and come up with a best-guess forecast as opposed to posting all the solutions. And oftentimes, it seems like the worst-case-scenario maps are shown which just doesn't seem to be a good service (unless, of course, you believe the worst-case will happen with a particular event...and those DO happen).

3) I am not against looking at model output beyond 180 hrs. I think it does have some use. Personally, I like to look at longer-range output sometimes just to get an idea of what the weather pattern might be like beyond DY 7. Maybe the GFS and the ECMWF show a deep trough developing across the eastern US 10 days out...it may not happen exactly that way, but if a certain pattern is advertised consistently from run to run, maybe it will help with confidence in your forecast once that pattern comes into play within your forecast period.

4) The idea of posting images and explaining them or comparing with other model solutions is an interesting one. I have mixed feelings about this. I like the teaching motivation and I think it is a good one. But, even good intentions can go awry. I'm not sure yet if I am against this idea, but it might be an interesting case study to see whether a majority of the people reading the post focus on the learning aspect or whether they focus on the fact that one model is showing a huge storm.

5) I realize that a lot of hyped posts are done by those who are not actual Meteorologists. To be clear, I don't have something against people who make such posts. The internet and social media are great, but it does make all kinds of weather info available / shareable (for better or worse). Personally, I can't hold a non-Met responsible for those posts (although, I do wish they would stop). But, I believe that we, as Meteorologists (just like dentists with candy) should be held to a higher standard when it comes to passing around worst-case scenario posts that we don't actually believe will happen.

My desire is to see the weather community at large continue to serve others as effectively as possible. If posting certain model output isn't effective, maybe those posts should be as rare as the occurrence of those blizzards shown 2 weeks out...