Reflections on 2020

I began this past year with a review of the previous ten years…a decade in review of sorts, looking at noteworthy weather events (as voted on #wxtwitter). That review seems like so long ago. It’s almost as if writing a review of this past year is like writing another decade in review. Looking ahead to 2020 quickly became how-fast-can-we-get-through-2020. A year highlighted by a lot of negatives was given its own hashtag (#2020). And, in case you didn’t know, tweets with that appended to it weren’t the most encouraging. I often try to find the light in the middle of the forest, while not diminishing the existence of the struggle to get through the trees. Below is my attempt at this perspective as I think back on 2020…

It’s striking to me how we, as a people, bounced around with how to handle the incoming pandemic, then more or less settled into a groove. Out-of-the-box ideas, pre-COVID, suddenly became hugely important. Within the NWS, I’ve watched as telework and virtual meetings have gone from occasional use to how-did-we-survive-without-this? It’s like life after 88D radars (how did you even issue warnings before?). COVID has brought some changes to operations that will probably stick with us for the foreseeable future, many of those positive.

A layer of virtualness in operations has its pros, but at times it also leaves something to be desired (at least it has for me). I’m incredibly grateful for technology and the ability to still “see” people face to face (imagine COVID in the 1980s…yikes). Where it has been tough, at times, is missing the day to day, in-person interactions. Some have probably loved COVID’s change in operations since it has made it more quiet in the office (nothing wrong with that), but that’s not me. I really enjoy being in an office full of people. Pre-COVID, I was always was a little bummed about working weekends, not because everyone else in the world is off, but because the office is lighter on faces. Every day now is a weekend. Like with telework and virtual meetings, though, it has become normal and I’ve settled into the groove of never-ending weekend shifts. Don't tell anyone, but sometimes the quiet of the new normal is nice, especially with the noise of four young children at home :)

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention those on permanent telework. I miss having a full office, but at least I get to go into the office and see a few people on a regular basis. There are those, in the weather community, who haven’t been in an office on a regular basis in almost a year. That’s hard to imagine, and I want to fully acknowledge the difficulties of that, especially for those who would rather be in an office with people.

2020 was a learning curve for operations in the middle of a pandemic, but I gotta say…I’m really impressed with how the agency just settled into a groove to keep our service going. It’s so neat to watch people improvise and find a way to make things happen. I’ve seen that in high-impact weather events in years past and I’ve watched it again with COVID. A previous forecaster in our office used to grace us with a hearty “NEAAATTT!!”, and I echo that sentiment as I think back on the flexibility of operations over the past year.

While COVID and politics (don’t worry, I won’t go there) have taken much of 2020’s stage, weather certainly made many attempts to grab some air time. For starters, tornadoes weren’t all that fond of the Plains, and instead chose locations like Oregon and Maine. The NWS Wichita office’s lack of tornadoes in 2020 made a nice, little doughnut hole in the Plains, with a scattering of tornadoes in surrounding states. 

Really, it was the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys that saw some incredible activity. Remember that tornado in MS with debris lofted downstream that was visible on radar? 

On a personal note, the Chattanooga tornado sticks out to me the most as that is where I spent my early childhood, and is where a large portion of my family still resides. Watching a debris signature so clearly evident over a city like that always carries some weight, but this one was different for me. I can count on one hand the number of times I have called my Grandparents and told them to get to the closet…this year makes #2 (the first was during the 4/27/11 tornado outbreak). Fortunately, my family all survived this year’s tornado, but one family member had significant damage in their neighborhood, including their house. Among other damage, a tree split their house in half, and landed the next room over from where they were seeking shelter. That debris signature on radar probably included parts of their house and neighborhood. Seeing a signature like that on radar and then waiting to hear from people…not a great feeling. But, what a relief after hearing all were spared!

Other notable events that stick out to me are the Midwest Derecho (can't get enough of those YouTube videos and how the wind just wouldn't stop) and the insanely active Atlantic Hurricane season. I kinda just thought that the 2020 hurricane season would simply merge into 2021. It’s amazing Louisiana is still on the map.

As quiet as the weather has been here in southern Kansas, I almost feel a little sheltered from the big weather events that other offices, and areas of the country, had to deal with in the middle of COVID. On a side note, I would love to hear from anyone who has worked in some of those big events this past year and how COVID played a role (operations, messaging, etc.). Feel free to comment below or hit me up on Twitter!

Looking ahead to 2021, I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic. I tend to see life from the glass is half full perspective, and I’d say I’m still in that camp as I look forward. But, like with the uncertainties in an approaching winter storm, I’m less confident on what to expect. I will say, however, when I think about the weather community I so enjoy being a part of, I feel confident that a passion for what we do will still be there. COVID and politics seem to be the wild cards, but I don’t foresee those stopping what we do.

If I’ve learned anything from this year that I can take into the next, it would probably be to worry less about what others think. Being mindful, and considerate, of others is one thing, but it’s something else when focusing on others’ opinions too much leads to unhealthy decision making, or an unhealthy view of myself. Think of it this way…some of the people we most want to have positive opinions of us are the very people we may hurt the most by not being honest or by not being ourselves. I like to use Key Takeaways in weather messaging, and this was my personal key takeaway from 2020. What about you? What’s your key takeaway(s)? Is there anything from 2020 that sticks out to you as a point of improvement going into 2021?

I don’t really know how to end a post like this that doesn’t sound corny or lacking sincerity/originality, so I’ll make my best attempt. I truly hope 2021 has some great moments for you. If 2020 was full of bad, I hope the good outweighs the negatives in 2021. I hope areas of weakness can be strengthened. Lastly, I really hope for improved relationships and the return of common ground (where it has been lost). COVID and politics really seemed to cause some separation. While that may not fully change, my hope is that we can find common ground to stand on and work from. We don’t all have to agree on everything, but I still believe we can work together effectively and respectfully. I believe the environment we can create in that scenario can help us face whatever challenges the future holds.

“We all do better when we work together. Our differences do matter, but our common humanity matters more.” - Bill Clinton

The Importance of Vision

Several weeks ago, I had some free time at the end of a shift. As I sat there pondering what to work on in the remaining few hours, I hit a wall. I mean, I really hit a wall. Some people get writer’s block. I got project block. I left work that evening feeling frustrated and a bit lost. I spent some time thinking about what had happened and what went wrong. What I discovered served as a reminder of the importance of vision, and how it extends beyond just the corporate level.

Generally speaking, airplanes share a corporate vision (takeoff, remain airborne, and land). However, not all planes are the same, and not all accomplish the mission in the same manner. Regardless, it’s good to have a flight plan before takeoff. It’s also good to know your plane (how much cargo your plane can safely handle, how much fuel you need, and so on). Without a flight plan and knowledge of the plane, you might end up crashing. That’s exactly what happened to me.

Leading up to my free time on shift, I had taken on too much “cargo”. I had said ‘yes’ to too many projects. It weighed me down and I struggled to takeoff that day. Once airborne, I was left with an ill-defined flight plan, I got lost, and then I crashed. I knew myself (my plane), but was lacking in the vision department. Has something like that ever happened to you?

If you like reading, I highly recommend “48 Days to theWork You Love” (Dan Miller). The short of it is to know yourself…what you enjoy, what you’re good at, what you gravitate towards…and then apply that to what you focus on in your work. I really believe the world is a better place when people are doing work they enjoy. That last word is really important.

So what do you like to do? What gets you excited or motivated, even when you’re lacking in sleep on Midnight shifts, or up at two in the morning to prepare for a morning shift? What do you enjoy teaching, or encouraging, others in? What are you so passionate about that sometimes you inadvertently burn bridges? (I've done this before). What are you good at (don’t be too modest)? What do people regularly compliment you on? The answers may offer a great foundation for what to focus on moving forward. 

In thinking through those questions, you may find that you are already doing what you enjoy and are good at. There’s still something to be said about being on a good road…AND knowing it. On the flip side, you may find an explanation for not feeling very motivated, for feeling discouraged, or why you have been “crashing” at times like I have.

Don’t let me lose you here. A vision doesn’t have to be a 12-step program that’s developed over months of agonizing thought and planning. Think of it as a simple “blueprint” for what to focus on when you have some extra time on shift, or which areas of the country you might be willing to work. It can help you better know what to say yes to and what to say no to. I’ve found that to be one of the most helpful benefits. 

Visions aren’t just about us, though. Having a “flight plan” can also provide a better service. Think about it this way. A flight attendant, who also knows how to fly a plane, may not be providing the best service if he or she says yes to both at the same time. Consider, too, that saying yes to something you can do, but don’t enjoy, may keep someone else from saying yes (someone who is capable AND enjoys it). It could even be that the person could provide a better service than you.

As a personal example, one area I really enjoy is finding ways to keep the science foundation of our (the NWS’) service solid. I enjoy being innovative, and practical, with the application of science in operations and messaging. When opportunities in this area come up, I tend to say yes whenever possible. However, over the years, I have also tended to say yes to other areas, some of which I don’t enjoy as much. There are times we won’t enjoy every single aspect of our jobs, but there’s a balance. We can’t say yes to everything. Knowing my vision…what I’m good at, what I enjoy, etc. has helped me to better prioritize opportunities that arise. I still take on some things that are less enjoyable, but I’m finding a better balance that has made “crashing” less common. It has also been very encouraging and motivating.

I want to take a brief moment to hit on something many of us are dealing with right now. Knowing what to focus on is great, but hard times, like the current era of COVID, can really be a damper. Sometimes it can be hard to think about the future, and what to focus on, when there’s an extra layer of uncertainty or negativity. For example, you may really enjoy in-person outreach (school talks, partner visits, etc.). It’s kinda hard to focus on that when we don’t know when those types of opportunities will come back. I’m learning, right alongside everyone else, how to think about the future with the COVID asterisks. For now, I’ve landed on focusing on what I can, while still planning and preparing for the return of other focus areas. I realize some of those areas may not return, or at least not in the same manner, but I think some of that will just have to be handled along the way. For you, maybe it's something other than COVID. Maybe you are surrounded by people who think your ideas are silly or impractical, or perhaps there's a general lack of passion in your circle. I don’t have all the answers here, but I want to acknowledge the added difficulty that hard times have on what we focus on. It may sound cliche, but don't give up. Hang on to your passions and see where they can be put to use, even if that means waiting to use them.

Visions (what we focus on) give direction and clarity; and can provide a positive outlook as you move forward, even during tough and uncertain times. It doesn’t have to be elaborate, but can make a world of difference not only for you, but also for those around you and those you serve. 

The one thing that you have that nobody else has is you. Your voice, your mind, your story, your vision. So write and draw and build and play and dance and live as only you can. Neil Gaiman
Read more at https://www.brainyquote.com/topics/vision-quotes

"The one thing that you have that nobody else has is you. Your voice, your mind, your story, your vision. So write and draw and build and play and dance and live as only you can." - Neil Gaiman

“Vision without action is merely a dream. Action without vision just passes the time. Vision with action can change the world.” - Joel A. Barker

 

The one thing that you have that nobody else has is you. Your voice, your mind, your story, your vision. So write and draw and build and play and dance and live as only you can. Neil Gaiman
Read more at https://www.brainyquote.com/topics/vision-quotes

The Fearless Meteorologist

One of my favorite Craig Manning quotes (author of "The Fearless Mind") is, "When we start to focus on winning, we open the door to worrying about losing." (pg 28). I was thinking about this the other night after working a marginal severe event in our CWA.

While doing radar, thoughts of possibly losing began to creep in. What if I issue a warning that doesn't verify, or what if I miss a warning? What will others think of my warning decisions?

Thoughts are just thoughts, but if I dwell on those questions too much, worry can begin to steer my decisions. Worry seems to have a tendency to change our motive(s). My original goal when working radar is to provide the best service possible. When worry creeps in, that goal may begin to shift towards not losing. Manning argues that that may ultimately lower our ability to make good decisions (pg 5). I agree with him, but I also think there is an important clarification about winning.

What is winning? Is winning beating the models or having perfect warning verification? Is it getting all your neighboring offices to buy-in on a Target of Opportunity? Let's give perfect warning verification a whirl. Changing Manning's quote, we get, "When we start to focus on [perfect warning verification], we open the door to worrying about [imperfect warning verification]". Perfect warning verification is a great service, right?! Well, what about that storm with 80 dBZ up to 80,000' and strong mid-level rotation that is going over a very rural area? You warn on it, but because only 5 people and a cow live there, you never hear anything. Ding, ding, ding...an unverified warning. Good service, but imperfect verification. If your goal is a good service, you probably warn. If you're worried about losing, you may not warn. See the difference?

Manning isn't against winning, and neither am I. What's important is getting better. In Manning's words, "Winning is great—we all want to win—but winning takes care of itself if we keep improving." (pg 89) What I like about that is the mindset change. Focusing, instead, on improving implies there will be mistakes along the way...that we will lose at times. It's an acknowledgment that there is room to grow. By adjusting our mindset...we are committing to the best service possible through trying our best and improving where we're weak.

I realize this doesn't completely prevent worry from creeping in. Even with the change in mindset, I still find worry creeping into my decisions at times. But, in my experience, that change in how I think about "winning" has really helped to keep my focus on what's most important, even when I make a mistake.

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"If you're doing your best, you won't have any time to worry about failure." - H. Jackson Brown, Jr

CAPE, SWEAT, and Tears

CAPE or SWEAT for severe weather? What about AFDs? Long, short, more science, less science? VIL of the Day? Social media graphics with lots of text and pictures, or one picture with a few key takeaways? SVR with TOR possible? Frequent posts in NWSChat or 'why do we even log in?'?

I don't get too worked up about CAPE vs SWEAT, but ask me about some other topics, and the emotion meter will probably pick up on an anomaly. What about you? Which topics in Meteorology trigger a deeper emotion? Think about it for a minute...

As you think about what you're passionate about, does just the thought, alone, trigger some emotions? For some, the emotion may be frustration or anger. Maybe you had a bad interaction or discussion, or perhaps you can't understand why someone would think or act a certain way, or why they don't seem to care as much about something you feel they should. I've struggled with all of those. I don't believe emotions aren bad in of themselves, but when they hit the red zone, bells and whistles start going off. It's at this point where I've been challenged to think differently.


I once worked with a forecaster who shared differing views (some vastly different) on a lot of topics, from AFDs to warnings, and products in between. I regularly dealt with the frustration of why someone would think, or act, a certain way. As passionate as I was in favor of certain ideas, he was equally passionate in the opposite camp. Over time, that frustration festered and led to an unhealthy working relationship between us. Our conversations about various topics of disagreement were no longer constructive and just led to frustration, anxiety, and stress. As much as I would like to say the problem was all his, it's simply not true. We were both part of the problem. On my end, I let my emotions get the best of my thoughts and actions...to the point where I dreaded working shifts together.

Let's pause for a minute and take a look at this from a weather point of view. Festering emotions (frustration in my story) is like a field of agitated cumulus clouds. If the forcing (ie. trigger mechanism) continues, those agitated CU can give rise to convection. Think about each stage of development as being the next color up on the "emotion meter".

Initial cumulus development sparked by some action or opinion, but nothing ominous

Maturing cumulus with a little more development due to continued agitation. Watch possible.

Skies are darkening (emotions are deepening). Initiation imminent.

Deepening emotion has given way to convective initiation. Warnings issued

The process from CU to convection varies depending on the environment, but sometimes can be explosive. The end result carries a risk of negative impacts. Not all CU fields give rise to convection, nor do all emotions give rise to problems. However, due to the potential negative impacts, the key is to monitor both - to stay situationally aware - in case increased agitation occurs.

Monitoring our emotions is only part of the task, though, and is probably the easier part. In my story, I was well aware of the increased agitation (frustration) with that forecaster. But what's the benefit to good situational awareness if it isn't followed by any action? This is where the task turns more difficult.

Good situational awareness lets the forecaster know important changes are occurring, and when they need to be addressed. If all the model data forecast the cap to hold, but satellite imagery shows it's breaking, your forecast and messaging will need to change. Not only that, your mindset about the rest of the shift needs to change (staffing, duties, etc). In our business, problems occur when good situational awareness points to a needed change, but no change is made. And that is exactly what happened to me in my earlier story. I knew the frustration was becoming increasingly agitated, but I didn't make the necessary changes.

Why are those changes so important? With thunderstorms, we know the risks. With emotional "storms", potential risks include hurt, or lost, relationships, poor communication, unfair biases, hasty/poor decisions, and so on. It's that first one - hurt, or lost, relationships - that has stuck out to me recently. Many, if not all, of us have at least one area in Meteorology that we feel strongly about, and there's nothing wrong with that. But, like colliding airmasses, problems arise when opposing passions meet. 


In my attempt to keep good relationships with people, I think I've tried to cap the emotion (not bad), instead of addressing the thoughts and actions (potentially bad) that follow. What I'm working hard on remembering is that it IS OK to disagree with people. It IS OK that others disagree with me. And it IS POSSIBLE to have a healthy relationship with those with differing opinions. I so wish I had acted differently with that previous forecaster. I wish I had been more ok with us disagreeing. Maybe we could have even had some constructive conversations with positive outcomes. There's no guarantee our working relationship would have been any better, but I believe it wouldn't have gotten as bad as it did. Beyond just him, I know I've probably burned some bridges with other people over the course of my career (due to not handling differing opinions as well).

Whether it's a weather-related disagreement or not, I am seeing more and more the importance of finding ways to keep relationships healthy. When we lose that, we quickly lose the ability to have constructive conversations and bring about important change.

I always want to be careful with absolute statements. Sometimes an issue has a one-size-fits-all solution, but not always. As it relates to this chat, I believe there are times where the healthy decision is to break off a relationship with a person or group. And, I'm not suggesting that we will all be best buds, either. We can have a healthy relationship with someone, but not be their best friend. My hope is simply that I - that we - will keep good situational awareness with our agitated CU, and find ways to work alongside each other even when we don't agree. If you struggle with keeping healthy relationships in the midst of differing opinions, you're not alone. I'm working on it right alongside you.

May 3, 2020 MCS Review

May 3, 2020 MCS Review (central/eastern KS)

As a general rule, convection is a tough, and humbling, phenomena to forecast. But, elevated convection? Well, that's a level above (pun intended). I don't always have time to review every event I work, but I try to when possible. The note with any review I do is it's simply a way to think back through an event and see what I can learn. If others have insights, I'm all ears. Let's learn together.

Before going any further, let me tell you what I didn't do well. I forecast quarter size hail and no wind of any significance. Our CWA ended up with 2" hail and 70-80 mph wind gusts. This is why I do reviews of events (in case you were wondering).

Early in the morning, thunderstorms developed over central Kansas and quickly became severe. Those storms eventually congealed, forming the beginning stages of a long-track MCS (as shown by Sean Ash) that produced severe weather well into the TN Valley.

Days in advance, this event carried a lot of uncertainty with it. Zonal flow with embedded shortwaves; questions about moisture depth/quality (especially following a more amplified upper level pattern that sent drier air well into the northern Gulf of Mexico); and less-than-stellar model agreement.

From a forecast standpoint, the part that gave me some pause (for initiation, coverage, and severity in KS) was questions surrounding moisture return and what impact the warm temps at the base of the EML plume would have on capping. 23 hours out, the RAP was forecasting some decent moistening around 850 mb, but even that wasn't enough to fully erode the elevated cap in place (we've had some very steep lapse rates recently, by the way).

23 hr RAP Forecast Sounding near Wichita, KS (valid 08z May 3)

23 hr RAP Forecast Environmental Parameters near Wichita, KS (valid 08z May 3)

MUCINH was around -40 j/kg, so not insurmountable, especially with an embedded wave forecast to move through and convergence along a west-east baroclinic zone, but not a guarantee of development either.

23 hr RAP 700 mb Temperature Forecast (valid 08z May 3)

Jumping ahead in time closer to initiation, the 2 hr RAP forecast sounding for Wichita showed a bit more moistening in and around 850 mb, but potentially more importantly, it also showed slightly cooler 700 mb temps, effectively removing any inhibition.

2 hr RAP Forecast Sounding near Wichita, KS (valid 08z May 3)

2 hr RAP Forecast Environmental Parameters near Wichita, KS (valid 08z May 3)

Weaker inhibition, modest large-scale forcing for ascent from the shortwave, and a mid-level convergence zone, and I'm assuming that is what gave rise to the fairly rapid development in/around the greater Wichita metro. As far as why storms formed where they did, it appears initiation held off until the shortwave/mid-level convergence zone interacted with instability axis oriented SW to NE across southern KS.

2 hr RAP Forecast Instability and 0-6 km shear (valid 08z May 3)

Sometimes it seems like elevated convection is more sensitive to subtle features (moistening, temperatures aloft, etc). Maybe that's the case with all convection, but it certainly seems important in this one. One of the forecasters at my office (WFO ICT) keyed in on one potential subtlety.  When he came on shift, he noticed a more backed flow in the low-levels on the ICT VWP compared to what models were forecasting the night before. That piqued my interest, and was something I didn't even think of looking at. It appears it was an important find.

The 23 hr RAP forecast sounding (valid near initiation time) showed westerly winds around 5 kt at 850 mb, while the 2 hr forecast sounding (valid near initiation time) showed slightly stronger 850 mb winds (15 kt) that were slightly south of due west. In fact, the 2 hr RAP forecast showed slightly better veering in the 850-700 mb layer. The end result was effective SRH of 96 m2/s2 (23 hr forecast) vs 144 m2/s2 (2 hr forecast). Both soundings had similar shear and instability, but that added SRH might have contributed to several of the updrafts being more efficient at acquiring low-mid level rotation.

It appears the increased potential for rotating updrafts aided in some larger hail sizes being realized and might have contributed to downdrafts being able to reach the ground more efficiently than would otherwise have been expected with a more stable SFC/near-SFC layer. That second possibility is pure speculation.

On the topic, though, I was very surprised to get a 76 mph wind gust so early in the event. It pays to look at more than just one forecast sounding prior to an event. Lesson learned! Take a look at the RAP forecast sounding for southeast Kansas (where the strongest wind gusts in our CWA occurred).

4 hr RAP Forecast Sounding over SE KS (valid 10z May 3)

4 hr RAP Forecast Environmental Parameters over SE KS (valid 10z May 3)

Despite southeast KS being post-frontal, it appears the drier low-level air, that was observed further west near Wichita, was not fully realized to the east. So, perhaps the better low-level moisture further east of I-35 allowed storms to be rooted a bit closer to the SFC compared to further west? If so, this might also explain the noticeable increase in SFC wind gust speeds as storms progressed further east.

Thoughts? Observations? Let me know!

Credits

Forecast soundings and analysis maps courtesy College of DuPage.
Storm reports courtesy SPC.