The Winter Storm that Never Was

Ah, winter. Cold weather, numerous holidays, and...weekly winter storms that never actually occur. Ok, so obviously winter storms do happen on some weeks. It's those storms-that-never-were that have been getting a lot of attention lately.

I would venture to say that come late November or early December and continuing through late-spring, a winter storm can be found at some point in any forecast cycle of the GFS. The problem is, it is often found beyond the 7-day / 180hr timeframe and it often doesn't play out like the GFS (or other models) claims it will. As Meteorologists, we know this. But, let's be honest, it is really fun to look at the GFS beyond 180 hrs to see the "eye candy" as I've heard many call it. I am not a doctor, but I hear that candy isn't always the best for you and yet it is still being passed out on a weekly basis.

My concern is that as Meteorologists we are doing a disservice to the ones it is our duty to serve. Can I go as far as saying that it is like a dentist passing out toothbrushes AND candy? Some great maps and charts ("toothbrushes") are spread around prior to an upcoming event, but then those end-of-the-world snow maps (ie. the candy) are mixed in. I am no authority in the weather community, but I just feel like we have to think of the potential consequences of passing that candy around.

In my opinion, one of our core responsibilities (regardless of sector) is to serve our clients, whether that be the public, a paying customer, or a business. When we post, share, or link to a model's "blizzard-of-the-year" output at 384 hours, what are we accomplishing?

I read a great blog post recently by Victor Gensini on this very issue. Check out his blog post HERE. He hit on a lot of the core issues with these posts, so I won't rehash that. But, a few thoughts to add...

1) If a model solution matches up closely with your own forecast, then fine. Maybe you don't have a fancy map-making tool and it is just easier to post a model's output with some sort of caption that clarifies the map shown is a model forecast, but that it matches closely with your thinking. But, how many of us actually make detailed forecasts for our clients 384 hours out? I know some do, but for the rest, maybe we should wait until the model's output is within our forecast period.

2) Post a map of your own, if possible. Many NWS offices, media outlets, and private sector company's do this. Right or wrong, it is their personalized forecast that incorporates analysis of many model solutions by the forecaster(s) on duty. I believe our clients are best-served when WE analyze each model's solution and come up with a best-guess forecast as opposed to posting all the solutions. And oftentimes, it seems like the worst-case-scenario maps are shown which just doesn't seem to be a good service (unless, of course, you believe the worst-case will happen with a particular event...and those DO happen).

3) I am not against looking at model output beyond 180 hrs. I think it does have some use. Personally, I like to look at longer-range output sometimes just to get an idea of what the weather pattern might be like beyond DY 7. Maybe the GFS and the ECMWF show a deep trough developing across the eastern US 10 days out...it may not happen exactly that way, but if a certain pattern is advertised consistently from run to run, maybe it will help with confidence in your forecast once that pattern comes into play within your forecast period.

4) The idea of posting images and explaining them or comparing with other model solutions is an interesting one. I have mixed feelings about this. I like the teaching motivation and I think it is a good one. But, even good intentions can go awry. I'm not sure yet if I am against this idea, but it might be an interesting case study to see whether a majority of the people reading the post focus on the learning aspect or whether they focus on the fact that one model is showing a huge storm.

5) I realize that a lot of hyped posts are done by those who are not actual Meteorologists. To be clear, I don't have something against people who make such posts. The internet and social media are great, but it does make all kinds of weather info available / shareable (for better or worse). Personally, I can't hold a non-Met responsible for those posts (although, I do wish they would stop). But, I believe that we, as Meteorologists (just like dentists with candy) should be held to a higher standard when it comes to passing around worst-case scenario posts that we don't actually believe will happen.

My desire is to see the weather community at large continue to serve others as effectively as possible. If posting certain model output isn't effective, maybe those posts should be as rare as the occurrence of those blizzards shown 2 weeks out...

The "Twister" Training Video

While reflecting on the events of the last 24-36 hours, I couldn't help but think of the movie "Twister". As some may recall, there is a scene where one vehicle in the group of chasers with corporate sponsors gets lifted up into a large tornado and then is thrown violently into the ground causing a deadly explosion. Do you remember why they were lifted up? They thought they were paralleling the tornado, but then it suddenly shifted course. By the time they realized it, they were too close. While parts of that movie have some questionable science, this scene is pretty darn realistic. Tornadoes can suddenly change directions and cars can be lifted up and thrown into the ground.Who knew that movie / scene could be used for chaser training purposes...

A number of things have been going through my mind after watching what all occurred yesterday (May 31, 2013) in Oklahoma. I'll try to be brief...

• I am not anti-storm chasing. In fact, from time to time, I enjoy going out to take in a few storms. And in of itself, I don't think storm chasing is a bad thing. But, I do think it requires a certain responsibility. I don't think drinking is wrong. But, you get drunk and then go and get behind the wheel of a car? Yeah, that's a problem...it's irresponsible. To me, purposely driving INTO a tornado isn't any different. 9 times out of 10 you may drink and drive without consequence, but then that 10th time comes along. I think a number of chasers experienced their 10th time yesterday. And, fortunately for them, it didn't end as bad as it could. 

• I hope lessons are learned from this, both by the public and by chasers across the country. I say this not meaning any disrespect at all. But, I wonder if The Weather Channel's SUV getting tossed was good for the public to see. Their incident, while unfortunate, sets a great example for all the TWC viewers that trying to outrun a tornado simply is not a good idea. If the TWC SUV had not been flipped, it's possible less people would have seen the negative effects of such a choice. It might just be one of TWC's best instructional videos. 

• On a side note, I have to be honest and say that in previous chase trips I have not always made the safest or wisest choices. None of my bad choices ever led to a bad incident, thank God, but I'd be a hypocrite if I pointed out others flaws without pointing out my own. So, I can truly say that the events of the other day have served as a good reminder to myself as well. 

• Many storm chasers add a great value to the field of Meteorology. I hope we don't let a few ruin it for the rest of us. Good information from chasers can help aid the NWS in making important warning-related decisions. This, in turn, can ultimately help the public to be better informed of impending weather-related hazards.

• Chaser videos that show the "inside" of a tornado are really not that interesting to me. Again I am reminded of "Twister". The two main characters (Bill and Joe) get their truck lifted up as they hold onto a bridge. Afterwards, our boy Dusty asks, 'Well, what was it like?' Joe's reply? It was windy. That's what I think of when I see these "spectacular" close-ups. Well, I guess it was windy. Some of the most amazing chase videos I have seen have been from people who were filming from a distance with a nice zoom lens. And, while getting a great video, you can make a quick call to the nearby NWS office giving them an update on the storm and how it is behaving. You get a great video and offer some potentially life-saving information all for the price of one...and you don't even have to be next to the tornado! 

To reiterate, I don't have a problem with chasing, but I just think it has to be done responsibly.