One of my favorite Craig Manning quotes (author of "The Fearless Mind") is, "When we start to focus on winning, we open the door to worrying about losing." (pg 28). I was thinking about this the other night after working a marginal severe event in our CWA.
While doing radar, thoughts of possibly losing began to creep in. What if I issue a warning that doesn't verify, or what if I miss a warning? What will others think of my warning decisions?
Thoughts are just thoughts, but if I dwell on those questions too much, worry can begin to steer my decisions. Worry seems to have a tendency to change our motive(s). My original goal when working radar is to provide the best service possible. When worry creeps in, that goal may begin to shift towards not losing. Manning argues that that may ultimately lower our ability to make good decisions (pg 5). I agree with him, but I also think there is an important clarification about winning.
What is winning? Is winning beating the models or having perfect warning verification? Is it getting all your neighboring offices to buy-in on a Target of Opportunity? Let's give perfect warning verification a whirl. Changing Manning's quote, we get, "When we start to focus on [perfect warning verification], we open the door to worrying about [imperfect warning verification]". Perfect warning verification is a great service, right?! Well, what about that storm with 80 dBZ up to 80,000' and strong mid-level rotation that is going over a very rural area? You warn on it, but because only 5 people and a cow live there, you never hear anything. Ding, ding, ding...an unverified warning. Good service, but imperfect verification. If your goal is a good service, you probably warn. If you're worried about losing, you may not warn. See the difference?
Manning isn't against winning, and neither am I. What's important is getting better. In Manning's words, "Winning is great—we all want to win—but winning takes care of itself if we keep improving." (pg 89) What I like about that is the mindset change. Focusing, instead, on improving implies there will be mistakes along the way...that we will lose at times. It's an acknowledgment that there is room to grow. By adjusting our mindset...we are committing to the best service possible through trying our best and improving where we're weak.
I realize this doesn't completely prevent worry from creeping in. Even with the change in mindset, I still find worry creeping into my decisions at times. But, in my experience, that change in how I think about "winning" has really helped to keep my focus on what's most important, even when I make a mistake.
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"If you're doing your best, you won't have any time to worry about failure." - H. Jackson Brown, Jr
