Thursday, December 31, 2020

Reflections on 2020

I began this past year with a review of the previous ten years…a decade in review of sorts, looking at noteworthy weather events (as voted on #wxtwitter). That review seems like so long ago. It’s almost as if writing a review of this past year is like writing another decade in review. Looking ahead to 2020 quickly became how-fast-can-we-get-through-2020. A year highlighted by a lot of negatives was given its own hashtag (#2020). And, in case you didn’t know, tweets with that appended to it weren’t the most encouraging. I often try to find the light in the middle of the forest, while not diminishing the existence of the struggle to get through the trees. Below is my attempt at this perspective as I think back on 2020…

It’s striking to me how we, as a people, bounced around with how to handle the incoming pandemic, then more or less settled into a groove. Out-of-the-box ideas, pre-COVID, suddenly became hugely important. Within the NWS, I’ve watched as telework and virtual meetings have gone from occasional use to how-did-we-survive-without-this? It’s like life after 88D radars (how did you even issue warnings before?). COVID has brought some changes to operations that will probably stick with us for the foreseeable future, many of those positive.


A layer of virtualness in operations has its pros, but at times it also leaves something to be desired (at least it has for me). I’m incredibly grateful for technology and the ability to still “see” people face to face (imagine COVID in the 1980s…yikes). Where it has been tough, at times, is missing the day to day, in-person interactions. Some have probably loved COVID’s change in operations since it has made it more quiet in the office (nothing wrong with that), but that’s not me. I really enjoy being in an office full of people. Pre-COVID, I was always was a little bummed about working weekends, not because everyone else in the world is off, but because the office is lighter on faces. Every day now is a weekend. Like with telework and virtual meetings, though, it has become normal and I’ve settled into the groove of never-ending weekend shifts. Don't tell anyone, but sometimes the quiet of the new normal is nice, especially with the noise of four young children at home :)

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention those on permanent telework. I miss having a full office, but at least I get to go into the office and see a few people on a regular basis. There are those, in the weather community, who haven’t been in an office on a regular basis in almost a year. That’s hard to imagine, and I want to fully acknowledge the difficulties of that, especially for those who would rather be in an office with people.

2020 was a learning curve for operations in the middle of a pandemic, but I gotta say…I’m really impressed with how the agency just settled into a groove to keep our service going. It’s so neat to watch people improvise and find a way to make things happen. I’ve seen that in high-impact weather events in years past and I’ve watched it again with COVID. A previous forecaster in our office used to grace us with a hearty “NEAAATTT!!”, and I echo that sentiment as I think back on the flexibility of operations over the past year.

While COVID and politics (don’t worry, I won’t go there) have taken much of 2020’s stage, weather certainly made many attempts to grab some air time. For starters, tornadoes weren’t all that fond of the Plains, and instead chose locations like Oregon and Maine. The NWS Wichita office’s lack of tornadoes in 2020 made a nice, little doughnut hole in the Plains, with a scattering of tornadoes in surrounding states. 

Really, it was the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys that saw some incredible activity. Remember that tornado in MS with debris lofted downstream that was visible on radar

On a personal note, the Chattanooga tornado sticks out to me the most as that is where I spent my early childhood, and is where a large portion of my family still resides. Watching a debris signature so clearly evident over a city like that always carries some weight, but this one was different for me. I can count on one hand the number of times I have called my Grandparents and told them to get to the closet…this year makes #2 (the first was during the 4/27/11 tornado outbreak). Fortunately, my family all survived this year’s tornado, but one family member had significant damage in their neighborhood, including their house. Among other damage, a tree split their house in half, and landed the next room over from where they were seeking shelter. That debris signature on radar probably included parts of their house and neighborhood. Seeing a signature like that on radar and then waiting to hear from people…not a great feeling. But, what a relief after hearing all were spared!

Other notable events that stick out to me are the Midwest Derecho (can't get enough of those YouTube videos and how the wind just wouldn't stop) and the insanely active Atlantic Hurricane season. I kinda just thought that the 2020 hurricane season would simply merge into 2021. It’s amazing Louisiana is still on the map.


As quiet as the weather has been here in southern Kansas, I almost feel a little sheltered from the big weather events that other offices, and areas of the country, had to deal with in the middle of COVID. On a side note, I would love to hear from anyone who has worked in some of those big events this past year and how COVID played a role (operations, messaging, etc.). Feel free to comment below or hit me up on Twitter!

Looking ahead to 2021, I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic. I tend to see life from the glass is half full perspective, and I’d say I’m still in that camp as I look forward. But, like with the uncertainties in an approaching winter storm, I’m less confident on what to expect. I will say, however, when I think about the weather community I so enjoy being a part of, I feel confident that a passion for what we do will still be there. COVID and politics seem to be the wild cards, but I don’t foresee those stopping what we do.

If I’ve learned anything from this year that I can take into the next, it would probably be to worry less about what others think. Being mindful, and considerate, of others is one thing, but it’s something else when focusing on others’ opinions too much leads to unhealthy decision making, or an unhealthy view of myself. Think of it this way…some of the people we most want to have positive opinions of us are the very people we may hurt the most by not being honest or by not being ourselves. I like to use Key Takeaways in weather messaging, and this was my personal key takeaway from 2020. What about you? What’s your key takeaway(s)? Is there anything from 2020 that sticks out to you as a point of improvement going into 2021?

I don’t really know how to end a post like this that doesn’t sound corny or lacking sincerity/originality, so I’ll make my best attempt. I truly hope 2021 has some great moments for you. If 2020 was full of bad, I hope the good outweighs the negatives in 2021. I hope areas of weakness can be strengthened. Lastly, I really hope for improved relationships and the return of common ground (where it has been lost). COVID and politics really seemed to cause some separation. While that may not fully change, my hope is that we can find common ground to stand on and work from. We don’t all have to agree on everything, but I still believe we can work together effectively and respectfully. I believe the environment we can create in that scenario can help us face whatever challenges the future holds.


“We all do better when we work together. Our differences do matter, but our common humanity matters more.” - Bill Clinton

Monday, November 16, 2020

The Importance of Vision

Several weeks ago, I had some free time at the end of a shift. As I sat there pondering what to work on in the remaining few hours, I hit a wall. I mean, I really hit a wall. Some people get writer’s block. I got project block. I left work that evening feeling frustrated and a bit lost. I spent some time thinking about what had happened and what went wrong. What I discovered served as a reminder of the importance of vision, and how it extends beyond just the corporate level.


Generally speaking, airplanes share a corporate vision (takeoff, remain airborne, and land). However, not all planes are the same, and not all accomplish the mission in the same manner. Regardless, it’s good to have a flight plan before takeoff. It’s also good to know your plane (how much cargo your plane can safely handle, how much fuel you need, and so on). Without a flight plan and knowledge of the plane, you might end up crashing. That’s exactly what happened to me.

Leading up to my free time on shift, I had taken on too much “cargo”. I had said ‘yes’ to too many projects. It weighed me down and I struggled to takeoff that day. Once airborne, I was left with an ill-defined flight plan, I got lost, and then I crashed. I knew myself (my plane), but was lacking in the vision department. Has something like that ever happened to you?


If you like reading, I highly recommend “48 Days to theWork You Love” (Dan Miller). The short of it is to know yourself…what you enjoy, what you’re good at, what you gravitate towards…and then apply that to what you focus on in your work. I really believe the world is a better place when people are doing work they enjoy. That last word is really important.

So what do you like to do? What gets you excited or motivated, even when you’re lacking in sleep on Midnight shifts, or up at two in the morning to prepare for a morning shift? What do you enjoy teaching, or encouraging, others in? What are you so passionate about that sometimes you inadvertently burn bridges? (I've done this before). What are you good at (don’t be too modest)? What do people regularly compliment you on? The answers may offer a great foundation for what to focus on moving forward. 

In thinking through those questions, you may find that you are already doing what you enjoy and are good at. There’s still something to be said about being on a good road…AND knowing it. On the flip side, you may find an explanation for not feeling very motivated, for feeling discouraged, or why you have been “crashing” at times like I have.

Don’t let me lose you here. A vision doesn’t have to be a 12-step program that’s developed over months of agonizing thought and planning. Think of it as a simple “blueprint” for what to focus on when you have some extra time on shift, or which areas of the country you might be willing to work. It can help you better know what to say yes to and what to say no to. I’ve found that to be one of the most helpful benefits. 


Visions aren’t just about us, though. Having a “flight plan” can also provide a better service. Think about it this way. A flight attendant, who also knows how to fly a plane, may not be providing the best service if he or she says yes to both at the same time. Consider, too, that saying yes to something you can do, but don’t enjoy, may keep someone else from saying yes (someone who is capable AND enjoys it). It could even be that the person could provide a better service than you.

As a personal example, one area I really enjoy is finding ways to keep the science foundation of our (the NWS’) service solid. I enjoy being innovative, and practical, with the application of science in operations and messaging. When opportunities in this area come up, I tend to say yes whenever possible. However, over the years, I have also tended to say yes to other areas, some of which I don’t enjoy as much. There are times we won’t enjoy every single aspect of our jobs, but there’s a balance. We can’t say yes to everything. Knowing my vision…what I’m good at, what I enjoy, etc. has helped me to better prioritize opportunities that arise. I still take on some things that are less enjoyable, but I’m finding a better balance that has made “crashing” less common. It has also been very encouraging and motivating.

I want to take a brief moment to hit on something many of us are dealing with right now. Knowing what to focus on is great, but hard times, like the current era of COVID, can really be a damper. Sometimes it can be hard to think about the future, and what to focus on, when there’s an extra layer of uncertainty or negativity. For example, you may really enjoy in-person outreach (school talks, partner visits, etc.). It’s kinda hard to focus on that when we don’t know when those types of opportunities will come back. I’m learning, right alongside everyone else, how to think about the future with the COVID asterisks. For now, I’ve landed on focusing on what I can, while still planning and preparing for the return of other focus areas. I realize some of those areas may not return, or at least not in the same manner, but I think some of that will just have to be handled along the way. For you, maybe it's something other than COVID. Maybe you are surrounded by people who think your ideas are silly or impractical, or perhaps there's a general lack of passion in your circle. I don’t have all the answers here, but I want to acknowledge the added difficulty that hard times have on what we focus on. It may sound cliche, but don't give up. Hang on to your passions and see where they can be put to use, even if that means waiting to use them.

Visions (what we focus on) give direction and clarity; and can provide a positive outlook as you move forward, even during tough and uncertain times. It doesn’t have to be elaborate, but can make a world of difference not only for you, but also for those around you and those you serve. 

The one thing that you have that nobody else has is you. Your voice, your mind, your story, your vision. So write and draw and build and play and dance and live as only you can. Neil Gaiman
Read more at https://www.brainyquote.com/topics/vision-quotes

"The one thing that you have that nobody else has is you. Your voice, your mind, your story, your vision. So write and draw and build and play and dance and live as only you can." - Neil Gaiman

“Vision without action is merely a dream. Action without vision just passes the time. Vision with action can change the world.” - Joel A. Barker

 

The one thing that you have that nobody else has is you. Your voice, your mind, your story, your vision. So write and draw and build and play and dance and live as only you can. Neil Gaiman
Read more at https://www.brainyquote.com/topics/vision-quotes

Thursday, July 23, 2020

The Fearless Meteorologist


One of my favorite Craig Manning quotes (author of "The Fearless Mind") is, "When we start to focus on winning, we open the door to worrying about losing." (pg 28). I was thinking about this the other night after working a marginal severe event in our CWA.

While doing radar, thoughts of possibly losing began to creep in. What if I issue a warning that doesn't verify, or what if I miss a warning? What will others think of my warning decisions?


Thoughts are just thoughts, but if I dwell on those questions too much, worry can begin to steer my decisions. Worry seems to have a tendency to change our motive(s). My original goal when working radar is to provide the best service possible. When worry creeps in, that goal may begin to shift towards not losing. Manning argues that that may ultimately lower our ability to make good decisions (pg 5). I agree with him, but I also think there is an important clarification about winning.

What is winning? Is winning beating the models or having perfect warning verification? Is it getting all your neighboring offices to buy-in on a Target of Opportunity? Let's give perfect warning verification a whirl. Changing Manning's quote, we get, "When we start to focus on [perfect warning verification], we open the door to worrying about [imperfect warning verification]". Perfect warning verification is a great service, right?! Well, what about that storm with 80 dBZ up to 80,000' and strong mid-level rotation that is going over a very rural area? You warn on it, but because only 5 people and a cow live there, you never hear anything. Ding, ding, ding...an unverified warning. Good service, but imperfect verification. If your goal is a good service, you probably warn. If you're worried about losing, you may not warn. See the difference?


Manning isn't against winning, and neither am I. What's important is getting better. In Manning's words, "Winning is great—we all want to win—but winning takes care of itself if we keep improving." (pg 89) What I like about that is the mindset change. Focusing, instead, on improving implies there will be mistakes along the way...that we will lose at times. It's an acknowledgment that there is room to grow. By adjusting our mindset...we are committing to the best service possible through trying our best and improving where we're weak.




I realize this doesn't completely prevent worry from creeping in. Even with the change in mindset, I still find worry creeping into my decisions at times. But, in my experience, that change in how I think about "winning" has really helped to keep my focus on what's most important, even when I make a mistake.

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"If you're doing your best, you won't have any time to worry about failure." - H. Jackson Brown, Jr