Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Hurricane COVID


August 23rd, 2005. Yet another tropical system, in an active 2004-2005 period, begins getting better organized over the Bahamas. At 5 pm, the first advisory comes out from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for Tropical Depression 12.

 
That depression would eventually go on to become the devastating, Hurricane Katrina. What some may not know, or remember, is that Katrina wasn't always expected to have as big of an impact along the north-central Gulf Coast. Two days after becoming better organized, model guidance seemed to be honing in on a possible Gulf Coast landfall near, or just west, of the Florida Big Bend area. This would have been well east of the New Orleans/Biloxi/Mobile areas.

I remember one of my Meteorology professors saying at the end of class that week that they would see us all on Monday (I was going to college at the University of South Alabama in Mobile at the time). I never sensed much doubt in the room as it appeared it would make the northward turn shortly after emerging off the west coast of Florida. After class, I went to work at the grocery story I'd been working at since starting college. With the storm forecast to pass well east of Mobile, I expected a mostly normal day, with perhaps some increase in customers with the storm in the vicinity.

Around 4 or 5 that afternoon, something happened. There was a noticeable increase in customers coming into the store. We always had an evening rush as people got off work, but this was different. There were literal streams of people pouring in from the parking lot. It's one of many images etched in my mental photo library from that  hurricane. All of us at the store soon found out why...

Katrina wasn't making that northward turn yet. The delayed turn caused the track to shift further west. The 4 pm CT advisory from the NHC now forecast Katrina to run right into Mobile. That change in the forecast sent residents of Mobile into a whole other level of preparedness. By Sunday morning, August 28, the first visible satellite images of Katrina were absolutely stunning...and worrisome.

Katrina was now a Category 5 hurricane with max sustained winds of 175 mph! The level of preparedness on Friday, August 26th was noticeable, but that level increased even more once people saw the whites of her eye that Sunday morning.

As it relates to COVID-19 (I'll call it COVID for short), I feel like the United States is currently somewhere between the Sunday morning Category 5 image of Katrina and the Monday morning landfall.

There have been preparations and actions taken across the U.S. in recent weeks, but the past few days feel like a whole other level of action. The medical field is outside my expertise, but like Katrina, it seems like something has triggered this recent uptick in response...something equivalent to seeing a category 5 hurricane approaching the coastline.

Human response to weather is something we, as Meteorologists, deal with on a regular basis and it's interesting how similar the response seems to be during non-weather disasters. When COVID started getting more attention, some probably took action right away, while others have waited until seeing the worsening forecast (like Mobile residents seeing Katrina's forecast track shift right over them). And then you still have those that wait to respond until those worrisome "category 5" images appear. For COVID, that might be like seeing a friend or family member get sick (or worse), or watching how bad things have gotten in other countries (like Italy).

In every hurricane I went through while living in Mobile, there was always this anticipatory waiting period. Whatever level of preparation you took, there came a time when preparation mostly ceased, and everyone was left to ride it out and watch it all unfold. I feel like the U.S. is getting into that wait-and-see period. Last-minute preparations are still ongoing, but many seem to be hunkering down for the longer haul.

The "outer bands" of COVID have already reached our shores...now we wait for "landfall". The tough part of waiting is you don't know how it will all turn out. Katrina changed the landscape of the Gulf Coast. What will COVID do? I don't mean that to sound dire or dramatic. It's simply the reality of waiting. It could be as bad as some forecast, or the forecasts could be wrong.

What my family and I have learned from all of the big weather events we've experienced is to take each one seriously, while finding that balance between fear and wisdom. I didn't plan well before Katrina and I paid a price. There probably is a healthy line between preparing and over-preparing, but I'd rather find myself on the over prepared side than the under prepared.

One of the great things I've seen in so many weather events is how people, businesses, and communities put their differences and financial needs aside and come together to help each other. I've already seen that with COVID and it's very encouraging. Once this storm passes, I believe we will look back and see numerous stories of people helping people...that there is still good sprinkled throughout humanity. Weather the storm, then watch for those opportunities as they arise.

There will be hard times in the coming weeks and months, but as a community, we have the choice to come together in preparedness, then come together in recovery. I've seen it work before and after hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods...and I hope to see it after COVID.

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Sliced Bread and ZDR Arcs

New technology has always been exciting to me. As a teenager, I enjoyed reading through "Crutchfield" magazines to keep up with the latest and greatest in home entertainment systems. As a Meteorologist, I enjoy reading through journal articles to keep up with the latest and greatest in weather research. Some research catches on quick...others not so much. At the height of my home entertainment days, anything with "DTS" slapped on it got my attention. Dolby Digital...cool. DTS? Watch out! For surround sound, it was the best thing since sliced bread (in my mind). You could put DTS on an entertainment center and suddenly I'd be hooked.

The thing about a DTS label on an entertainment center is that it probably doesn't enhance the sound experience in any way. That's not to diminish the quality of DTS, or the quality of the entertainment center, it's just not the most appropriate application. On a similar note, only having Dolby Digital doesn't make a receiver bad, nor does having DTS make a receiver great. Is DTS the only way to go for sound? Nope. Had you talked to me about 20 years ago, though, I probably would have said yes.

The "DTS" of weather for me encompasses many new tools and technology, including GR, GOES 16/17, Dual Pol, and BUFKIT (yes, I realize all of those aren't brand, spanking new). High up on my list is Dual Pol. One of the forecaster's at my office often talks about the "story" weather data tells us. Dual Pol tells many...and I'm not convinced we've heard them all. What I find most fascinating about Dual Pol is the ability to help diagnose what storms are producing and how they are evolving, and the additional information this provides compared to legacy data, alone. Does it make legacy data bad or out-dated? Nope. But, I do believe it provides some additional clues that can improve our warning service at times.

A key to finding the best application of new research and tools seems to be rooted in how we view them. New tools are exciting and different, some of which truly are the best thing since sliced bread. An important differentiation is knowing which ones are proven and which ones have potential, but are not yet highly correlated, verified, etc. Personally, I'm guilty of 100% latching onto a new theory or tool at times, quickly trying to sell others on it. It's the next best thing...what are we waiting for?!

In reality, it may very well be the next best thing. But, until something is more solidly proven, we run the risk of an unhealthy view of the proven, yet not-as-new, methods. Ultimately, this could have unintended consequences. Successful warnings, for example, have come from legacy radar data, alone, but have also come from using a legacy and Dual Pol combination.

Having Dual Pol data is great, but it doesn't work perfectly in every situation. Like DTS, know when it can, and can't, be used. For me, I've found that figuring out when starts with admitting that it MIGHT not be the best thing since sliced bread. For those out there who are all-things-Dual-Pol like myself, don't let me lose you here. The point I'm hoping to drive home is to watch out for another case of Meteorological tunnel vision (something I am prone to).

I'm scheduled to present at my office's spring workshop this year, and I was ready to bust down the doors with ZDR Arcs and KDP foots. While research may yet reveal this to be true, I have had to slow my roll and realize that the data isn't 100% there yet to bust down any doors. When you bust down doors, you sometimes end up knocking people over in the process.

With new, or still-being-researched, tools, awareness (as opposed to selling) seems to be a better first step. And think about it...increased awareness can spark additional interest and research that may help in determining the needed viability of a tool. Sometimes we all just need to know a tool exists and how to test it. My hope at the workshop is simply to enhance awareness and let the research sell itself if, indeed, it is a better option. My hope is that I will be more intentional about checking, but not diminishing, my excitement for new research, and knowing when to sell something vs simply raising awareness.