Baseballs and Caps - Messaging Uncertainty

Imagine yourself at the forecast desk, or about to brief partners, or working up a “Key Takeaways” graphic for social media. You’re looking through various model guidance and you see a very consistent trend for a very concerning environment over the next 24 hours, characterized by extreme instability (4000-5000 j/kg MLCAPE), modest shear (30-35kt effective), weak inhibition (-25 j/k CIN), and very steep lapse rates (8-9 C/km). It’s the kind of environment you tell your spouse to keep the flashlight and basement handy. But, there’s a caveat. You can’t find any appreciable large-scale forcing for ascent and low-level convergence is weak, at best. Oh, and there’s a little ridging building in aloft. It’s one of those very conditional, but non-zero threats. The thing is, we’re not talking about a conditional threat of pea size hail and 30 mph wind gusts. This is a conditional threat of baseballs, 80 mph wind gusts, and the occasional EF-3 tornado. It may be that only one storm forms, but the impact would be high. But, from a probabilistic standpoint, it’s likely that people will see puffy clouds and experience a hot, muggy, storm-free day. What do you do?

It’s a not-to-uncommon question faced by Meteorologists on the Plains, especially in the transition from spring to summer patterns, where instability is trending higher, but the stronger flow aloft is shifting away from the area and forcing is weak. It’s a target of opportunity that probably deserves some attention, but how much?

This week I begin my fourth year forecasting the weather in the Central Plains, and I still have a lot to learn. These conditional high-impact days are intriguing, a challenge to forecast, and carry a lot of weight. If you tell people severe weather is possible, will they treat it like it’s likely? Does the crying wolf syndrome come into play? What if you skip messaging the low probability of occurrence, but then it happens? Which is worse, crying wolf or “it hit without warning”? Maybe the answer varies by region of the country? Maybe there isn’t a one-size-fits-all-regions answer.

There are a lot of factors at play here, some of which social science probably gives us the best avenue moving forward in an increasingly probabilistic realm of messaging.

I recently asked some fellow Mets, on Twitter, what they thought this scenario (if interested, you can read the thread to see the discussion). Something in that discussion that struck me was our ability, as Meteorologists, to message the environment. We focus a lot on messaging the forecast, but I’m seeing more and more that the message can’t stop there. Dr. Julie Demuth suggests that we “stop thinking of a given forecast as the end-point and start thinking of it as the starting-point for a conversation.”. In our scenario above, our users are seeing a low probability of storms in our forecast, but do they understand the magnitude of severe weather that could occur if storms do form? I wonder if targets of opportunity extend beyond just our forecast grids. Maybe the environment, itself, is a target.

We may not change our forecast, but we might consider changing our messaging.

Three years ago this month, I worked a shift that featured a conditional, high-impact environment.  I ended up working a 13 hour shift that day…a day that included baseball size hail and an EF-3 tornado. Three years later, I worked a shift with a similar conditional threat with a very similar environment. That shift ended on time, and did not include any baseballs or tornadoes. Two shifts with a similar, high-impact potential, but with drastically different outcomes.

Probabilistic forecasting isn’t exactly new for Meteorologists, or even our users. However, it appears that we are moving into an advanced realm of forecasting and messaging that has a higher ratio of probabilistic to deterministic info, with a learning curve both for us and for our users. I get the sense that there isn’t one right answer for all scenarios, but I still am not sure where to land on these “fringe” events, so-to-speak. I’m hoping continued discussion, group-think, trial and error, user feedback, and social science findings will help us as we continue to seek effective messaging of low-probability events.

If you have any ideas, suggestions, or comments on this topic, I’d love to hear them! Comment on the post, shoot me a message, or add to the Twitter discussion. We’re better off if we learn together.

The Role of Winter Weather Headlines

One of the topics of discussion at my office's winter workshop today was winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories (winter WWA, I'll call it). This isn't the first time we've talked about this as a group. I've always been big on products like that, but in the changing landscape of communication and messaging, I'm not so sure where I land now.

It's no secret that not all NWS products are understood correctly. I remember talking to my sister one time about a winter storm that was headed her way. I mentioned that she was under a Winter Storm Warning. She said something to the effect of, "Oh, but it's just a warning, so that's not too bad, right?" (she had always thought an advisory was worse than a warning). Who does she think she is not knowing that! I mean, how hard can it be to remember that??? The better question might be who am I to think that everyone fully comprehends that? In my mind, it seems like a simple concept. But, then again, I'M the one with the Meteorology degree...I'M the one regularly contemplating impacts and criteria. She has no idea what her local office's criteria are. Should she?

I don't think I've ever thought people should know our (the NWS') criteria. Heck, I don't even remember all of our criteria. I have an ops notebook dedicated to that very thing. If I'm being honest, though, there is probably a part of me that has expected people to at least understand the winter WWA difference. It seems like such a simple concept (says the Meteorologist). I don't know where the disconnect is, but something leads many people to repeatedly ask for clarification on the issue. Perhaps there's something important there.

With social media and SOOO many different ways to get information nowadays, there continues to be a push for improved and effective communication. One way to improve communication is to avoid confusion where possible. If the winter watch/warning/advisory distinction is causing confusion, maybe one solution is to avoid the mention of those products where possible. Think about the earlier conversation with my sister. What if I had just started the conversation with, "Hey, looks like ya'll are going to get 6-12" of snow tomorrow." Our conversation would have been shorter and less confusing.

My sister has three kids...all of which are in school. For her, 6-12" likely means no school and that someone needs to be home to watch the little rascals. THAT'S what matters to her. At the core, she probably could care less about whether she is under an advisory or warning...she just wants to know if the kids are staying home.

This is not an argument for, or against, the removal of winter WWA. As I understand the current state of the weather enterprise and how we communicate, there is still a place for those products. It just seems that our forward-facing message for the public, and likely even our partners, should be the potential or expected amounts, impacts, timing, etc. In time, maybe major changes to winter WWA will be more effective and is something the NWS Hazard simplification project is working hard to address going forward.

The challenge will still be how to best manage time spent on winter WWA decisions vs other aspects of messaging in order to best set people up for success as they contemplate important decisions with each winter event. I'm still working through finding that balance. For now, I suppose I have landed on focusing most of my attention/effort on the science of the forecast and how that drives the forward-facing message (social media graphics, SitReps, briefings, etc) while at the same time not completely ignoring the role winter WWA have in the process. What about you? Where do you see winter WWA fitting in with messaging and how it is best utilized going forward?

P.S. My blog was never meant to be a let-me-tell-you-how-it-is kind of deal. I'm hoping any post I make starts conversations, whether I am ever involved in them or not. Writing these posts has helped me think through the challenges we face and I hope it does the same for others.